Pro Pundit Teams

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

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2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. konrad.sygula95
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 21 days ago

    What are the best replacement for Ings and Havertz? on 2 ft

    Mccarthy/Nyland
    TAA/ Saiss/Holding/Douglas/Mitchell
    Son/Salah/Havertz/Grealish/Stephens
    Ings/Werner/Mitro

    2ft 1.1itb

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      KDB & Wilson?

  2. Gudjohnsen
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 21 days ago

    A. Cresswell, Ziyech
    B. Chilwell, Grealish

    1. bso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      B

    2. Ganso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      B

    3. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      B

    4. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      B

  3. The Count of Monte Cristo
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 21 days ago

    2FT & 4.0m ITB - undecided between the following

    A) C. Taylor + Pulisic --> Chilwell + Grealish (FT)
    B) TAA + Pulisic --> Chilwell + Grealish (FT)
    C) Pulisic --> Ziyech / Zaha / Grealish

    McCarthy
    TAA | Justin | C.Taylor
    Salah | Son | Pulisic* | Soucek
    Mitrovic | Kane | C.Wilson

    4.0 | Bissouma | Mitchell | Targett [2FT + 4.0m ITB]

    1. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      A

      1. The Count of Monte Cristo
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 21 days ago

        Thanks. Of course, upgrading from Taylor is better than TAA but may need some TAA cash later on to upgrade 4th mid / Mitrovic.

        Better to take care of next GW?

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 21 days ago

          I just think if you have that option to keep TAA it might be better for this week. You can always ditch if he continues again to disappoint!

          1. The Count of Monte Cristo
            • 8 Years
            3 months, 21 days ago

            Appreciate the responses - think I'll lean with this for now. Grealish over Zaha the safer pick?

    2. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      A

  4. moonwipe
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 21 days ago

    Taking Ings + Sterling out for;

    A) Werner + Grealish
    B) Ziyech + Watkins

    Thoughts?

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      A

    2. Orion
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      Keep Raz against his old club

    3. BENOIT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      A is like 3m more

  5. Pep Roulette
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 21 days ago

    Ziyech or KDB/Sterling?

    1. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      Ziyech for now

    2. Luton_Fan
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      Kdb

    3. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      KDB

  6. Marc Jobling
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 21 days ago

    2 FT, £3.5m in the bank

    Not sure who to bring in for Ings:

    - Already have DCL and Jimenez
    - Werner is a rotation risk and, after this week, I don't like Chelsea's fixtures
    - Brewster is in a bad, bad team
    - Antonio is injured, unfortunately
    - Wilson has average fixtures and plays for Steve Bruce
    - Bamford is popular but I just don't rate him

    Who to get?

    1. No Professionals
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      Vardy not an option?

      1. Marc Jobling
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 21 days ago

        He does have a few good upcoming games but he's that awkward price between Werner and Kane/Aguero.

    2. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      Bamford

    3. Ganso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      Wilson is still ticking along nicely for his price. It'll allow you to get a City mid in a couple of weeks too with the spare change

    4. Pep Roulette
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      Be the early one to the party!

    5. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      Wilson or Bamford for me. Gives you cash for future upgrades

    6. Mortal.Swinbat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      Kane??

      1. Marc Jobling
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 21 days ago

        Just not sure there's much point getting him now. The right time would've been a few games ago.

  7. Flynny
    • 5 Years
    3 months, 21 days ago

    Hi.....what to do with foden here please? 0ft. 0.2mitb....rank 3.5m

    Martinez
    Taa chilwell lamptey (James mitchell)
    Salah son ziyech foden (burke)
    Kane dcl watkins

    A...g2g

    B ...foden to bowen / fornals - 4

    I don't know how benrahma will affect fornals and bowen minutes though...

    Thanks

    1. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      I’d hold. Not worth a hit

      1. Flynny
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 21 days ago

        cheers

    2. Ganso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 21 days ago

      Two possible 1 pointers in Foden & James (if called upon). I'm getting rid of Foden for -4 however as it's a nightmare owning a non-nailed city player.

      1. Flynny
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 21 days ago

        Who is your foden replacement??

        1. Ganso
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          3 months, 21 days ago

          Grealish. Talisman and apart from this week, his upcoming fixture run is great. If they score against Arsenal, he'll more than likely be involved.

  8. Don Kloppeone
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 21 days ago

    Trying again. No replies

    Struggling with what best to do with 2FT. Pulisic is the main issue and I may have lost patience with LIV def not delivering value.

    2FT 1.1itb
    Martinez
    Robbo*, Chilwell, Dallas
    Salah, Son, Pulisic*, Grealish
    Kane, DCL, Bamford
    (Forster) (KWP, Stephens, Branthwaite)

    A) Puli, Robbo > Ziyech, Cresswell/ Coufal/ Bellerin (2FT)
    B) Puli, Robbo > Rodriguez (if fit), Zouma (2FT)
    C) Puli > Ziyech (roll an FT)
    D) Puli > Zaha

    Cheers

    1. BeWater
        3 months, 21 days ago

        I would do C. I had 2FTs this week and used both. I'm wishing I rolled one now.

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 21 days ago

          Def the most sensible option!

      • Ze_Austin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 21 days ago

        Robbo to Coufal and Pulisic to KDB

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 21 days ago

          KDB this week? Not sold on that! I can’t see him suddenly going wild vs Liverpool

          1. Ze_Austin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            3 months, 21 days ago

            It's exactly his kind of game, remember? Number 10 role in big games, and all

            And it's a long-term move with 2 FTs

            Ah well...

            A

            1. Don Kloppeone
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              3 months, 21 days ago

              The KDB of old I totally agree. But this MCI atm are a shadow of that team and I’m just not convinced yet at his price point

            2. Don Kloppeone
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              3 months, 21 days ago

              Lol you were too quick to admit defeat!

              You could be right of course ... just want to see more from KDB/ Sterling

      • TheDragon
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 21 days ago

        Pulisic -> Zaha for me means I’ll be able to get Som -> KdB in GW10 without having to lose Kane

        So I’m doing this in the same situation.

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 21 days ago

          Yes but I can also do the Son > KDB move if I take out Robbo also (i.e in A). Not convinced he’s worth holding onto because of the hauls he ‘should’ be getting or because he’s close given his price

          1. TheDragon
            • 2 Years
            3 months, 21 days ago

            I just can’t bring myself to get rid of Robertson. I’d love you to talk me into it though!

    2. Bretth96
        3 months, 21 days ago

        Planning to WC GW10,

        Is Mitrovic ->> Bamford/Wilson worth it for a -4 hit for 2 game weeks?

        1. BeWater
            3 months, 21 days ago

            I have Mitro too. Planning to just hold him now. I'm also considering WC in GW10.

          • Hansel
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            3 months, 21 days ago

            Not for 2 gws

        2. Tabasco
          • 10 Years
          3 months, 21 days ago

          Not really sure what to do here (2 FTs, 1.3 itb):

          Martinez Forster
          Lamptey Chilwell TAA KWP Coufal
          Bissouma Anguissa Salah Sterling Son
          DCL Jimenez Wilson

          A) TAA to Bellerin
          B) Jimenez to Werner
          C) TAA and Biss/Anguiss to Bellerin and Zaha/Grealish/Ziyech
          D) TAA/Anguissa/Jimenez to Bellerin/Jota/Vardy
          E) Other

          1. bitars
            • 3 Years
            3 months, 21 days ago

            C with Grealish

          2. BeWater
              3 months, 21 days ago

              TAA to Cancelo and Grealish for Bissouma or Anguissa.

          3. ZeBestee
            • 6 Years
            3 months, 21 days ago

            Did Chelsea play so well in the CL that their assets are now important particularly next 2? Rennes were 1 man down and conceded 2 pens.

            1. TheDragon
              • 2 Years
              3 months, 21 days ago

              Well they apparently never concede a goal and won’t ever again hence th interest in their defence.

              Chilwell = TAA except more clean sheet chance and cheaper

            2. Miguel Sanchez
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              3 months, 21 days ago

              No but looks like something is coming together there

          4. TheDragon
            • 2 Years
            3 months, 21 days ago

            Help please. 1FT

            Martinez
            Robertson, Semedo, Lamptey
            Salah, Son, Grealish, Zaha
            Maupay, Kane, DCL
            4.0 | KWP, Bissouma, Mitchell

            A) Robertson -> Chilwell
            B) Semedo -> Chilwell
            C) Save FT

            1. Luton_Fan
              • 11 Years
              3 months, 21 days ago

              A

            2. BeWater
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Save.

              • TheDragon
                • 2 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                My preference is B!

                1. BeWater
                    3 months, 21 days ago

                    B is in no way a bad idea 🙂

              • Luton_Fan
                • 11 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Just d imo

              • RUUD!
                • 8 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Chances of Pulisic starting this week?

                1. TheDragon
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  25% I think

                  I’d normally say no chance they’d rush him in given international break is coming but havertz being out might make it slightly more likely

                2. nico05
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  It's looking unlikely

              • Rinseboy
                • 9 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Semedo to Chilwell worth a -4 this week?

                1. ZeBestee
                  • 6 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Dont think so.

                  1. TheDragon
                    • 2 Years
                    3 months, 21 days ago

                    How about for free?

                    1. ZeBestee
                      • 6 Years
                      3 months, 21 days ago

                      Yes

                2. One of Those Days
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 1 Year
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  No

                3. nico05
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  No, good move in general but not for a hit imo

              • H-SF
                • 4 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Hey guys, this is my team:
                Ramsdale
                KWP Saiss Mitchell Trent Digne
                Bissouma Soucek Pulisic Son Salah
                Kane DCL Maupay

                0.6 ITB. 1 FT
                4 players didn't play last week. Do I need to WC? I am unsure. Help appreciated

              • The Wizard of Ozil
                • 11 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Would you do Puli->Ziyech for a hit pre price rise or wait to here more news tomorrow

                1. The Gambler.
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Mulling over the exact same thing. Even if he plays, he’s not gonna play 90 and seems a crock?

                  1. The Wizard of Ozil
                    • 11 Years
                    3 months, 21 days ago

                    Yeah long term he has to go, got him in for a hit last week so another hit to take him out a week later is not easy

                2. La Roja
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Not for a hit

              • TomSaints
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Ok this is a bit rogue.

                Maupay and DCL -> Werner and Brewster

                I think the Everton ship may have sailed and while a good few fixtures coming up. I really like Werner and Maupay has been a huge disappointment

                1. TheDragon
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Absolute insanity

                  1. TomSaints
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 3 Years
                    3 months, 21 days ago

                    Probably a great choice this season then haha

                    1. TheDragon
                      • 2 Years
                      3 months, 21 days ago

                      Haha - very true!

                2. The Wizard of Ozil
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Hmm not for me, I’m thinking of getting one of DCL or Maupay on this week. He should bounce back after being dropped last week

                3. Mortal.Swinbat
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Maupay > Bamford

                4. HMC
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Selling 2 assets for 1, hmm it’s a no from me
                  Too many good scoring options around 6m to go for Brewster

              • Noah’s Ark
                • 8 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                How’s my lot looking?

                Martinez
                Chillwell, Cresswell, Mings
                Salah, Son, Rodriguez, Trossard
                Kane, Werner, DCL

                1. La Roja
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Needs bench

                  1. Noah’s Ark
                    • 8 Years
                    3 months, 21 days ago

                    Doesn’t have one unfortunately

              • Stupendous
                • 8 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Anything worth doing or save?

                Got 1 ft and 1.1m itb

                Martinez
                Robbo Chilwell KWP
                Son Salah Rodriguez Grealish Zaha
                Kane DCL

                Martin Mitchell Kilman Brewster

                Thanks for your time

                1. Ze_Austin
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Save

                  1. Stupendous
                    • 8 Years
                    3 months, 21 days ago

                    Cheers

              • FDMS All Starz
                • 5 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Best Trent replacement? Money no problem

                My def: TAA - Justin - Targett - Bernardo* - Douglas*

                1. Pep Roulette
                  • 3 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Chilwell ez

              • Wetdream
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Is there a chelsea press conference tomorrow ?

                1. Ze_Austin
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Yes. Morning

              • Twisted Melon
                • 6 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                A) Vardy and Rodriguez
                B) Wilson and KDB

              • It’s gonna Ben Mee
                • 7 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Massive benching headache. Please help by benching two:

                A) PvA (LEE)
                B) Bam (cry)
                C) Vestergaard (NEW)
                D) Hamez (MUN)
                E) Lamptey (BUR)

              • Fernando Torres
                • 9 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Is Mitchell to Chilwell worth a -4?

                1. Pep Roulette
                  • 3 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  No doubt about that

                2. g40steve
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Yes

                3. Fernando Torres
                  • 9 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Thanks!

              • Luton_Fan
                • 11 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Trossard to zaha for free or save? Tia

                1. nico05
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Save this week

              • g40steve
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Play one Robbo, Coufal or Lamptey?

                1. Luton_Fan
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Lamptey. But try to play coufal aswell

                2. George James
                  • 6 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Coufal

                3. Pep Roulette
                  • 3 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Robbo

                4. nico05
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Tough game but id play Robbo

                5. g40steve
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Martinez
                  Coufal, Zouma, Chilwell,
                  Grealish, Salah, Zaha, Son C
                  DCL, Kane, Bamford

                  Steer, Podence, Lamptey, Robbo

              • George James
                • 6 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                0.1m short to do saiss >> Chilwell

                How do I save it here?

                Martinez • Steer
                Lamptey • James • Robbo • Coufal
                Son • Salah • Podence • Foden • Bissouma
                Werner • Kane • DCL.

                1. Ze_Austin
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Bissouma to Reidewald

              • KAPTAIN KANE
                • 4 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Good evening

                1. nico05
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 21 days ago

                  Good evening Kaptain

              • nico05
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                3 months, 21 days ago

                Hi guys is there any chance i could get some input please? 2FT and 3 mil available
                Mcarthy
                TAA Justin Lascelles Reguilon (mitchell)
                Salah Bruno Son Grealish (oirol romeu)
                Jimi Mitro (davies)
                A. TAA+Davies - Chilwell +Wilson
                B. Davies - Wilson
                C. Something else?
                I must add i plan to bring in KDB for Son in a couple of weeks.
                Cheers