Pro Pundit Teams

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

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Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships and monthly subscriptions are now available.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
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  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

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2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. konrad.sygula95
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    What are the best replacement for Ings and Havertz? on 2 ft

    Mccarthy/Nyland
    TAA/ Saiss/Holding/Douglas/Mitchell
    Son/Salah/Havertz/Grealish/Stephens
    Ings/Werner/Mitro

    2ft 1.1itb

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      KDB & Wilson?

  2. Gudjohnsen
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    A. Cresswell, Ziyech
    B. Chilwell, Grealish

    1. bso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      B

    2. Ganso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      B

    3. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      B

    4. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      B

  3. The Count of Monte Cristo
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    2FT & 4.0m ITB - undecided between the following

    A) C. Taylor + Pulisic --> Chilwell + Grealish (FT)
    B) TAA + Pulisic --> Chilwell + Grealish (FT)
    C) Pulisic --> Ziyech / Zaha / Grealish

    McCarthy
    TAA | Justin | C.Taylor
    Salah | Son | Pulisic* | Soucek
    Mitrovic | Kane | C.Wilson

    4.0 | Bissouma | Mitchell | Targett [2FT + 4.0m ITB]

    1. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      A

      1. The Count of Monte Cristo
        • 9 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        Thanks. Of course, upgrading from Taylor is better than TAA but may need some TAA cash later on to upgrade 4th mid / Mitrovic.

        Better to take care of next GW?

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          11 months, 16 days ago

          I just think if you have that option to keep TAA it might be better for this week. You can always ditch if he continues again to disappoint!

          1. The Count of Monte Cristo
            • 9 Years
            11 months, 16 days ago

            Appreciate the responses - think I'll lean with this for now. Grealish over Zaha the safer pick?

    2. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      A

  4. moonwipe
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Taking Ings + Sterling out for;

    A) Werner + Grealish
    B) Ziyech + Watkins

    Thoughts?

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      A

    2. Orion
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Keep Raz against his old club

    3. BENOIT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      A is like 3m more

  5. Pep Roulette
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Ziyech or KDB/Sterling?

    1. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Ziyech for now

    2. Luton_Fan
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Kdb

    3. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      KDB

  6. FPLMarc88
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    2 FT, £3.5m in the bank

    Not sure who to bring in for Ings:

    - Already have DCL and Jimenez
    - Werner is a rotation risk and, after this week, I don't like Chelsea's fixtures
    - Brewster is in a bad, bad team
    - Antonio is injured, unfortunately
    - Wilson has average fixtures and plays for Steve Bruce
    - Bamford is popular but I just don't rate him

    Who to get?

    1. No Professionals
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Vardy not an option?

      1. FPLMarc88
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        He does have a few good upcoming games but he's that awkward price between Werner and Kane/Aguero.

    2. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Bamford

    3. Ganso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Wilson is still ticking along nicely for his price. It'll allow you to get a City mid in a couple of weeks too with the spare change

    4. Pep Roulette
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Be the early one to the party!

    5. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Wilson or Bamford for me. Gives you cash for future upgrades

    6. Mortal.Swinbat
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Kane??

      1. FPLMarc88
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        Just not sure there's much point getting him now. The right time would've been a few games ago.

  7. Flynny
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Hi.....what to do with foden here please? 0ft. 0.2mitb....rank 3.5m

    Martinez
    Taa chilwell lamptey (James mitchell)
    Salah son ziyech foden (burke)
    Kane dcl watkins

    A...g2g

    B ...foden to bowen / fornals - 4

    I don't know how benrahma will affect fornals and bowen minutes though...

    Thanks

    1. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      I’d hold. Not worth a hit

      1. Flynny
        • 6 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        cheers

    2. Ganso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Two possible 1 pointers in Foden & James (if called upon). I'm getting rid of Foden for -4 however as it's a nightmare owning a non-nailed city player.

      1. Flynny
        • 6 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        Who is your foden replacement??

        1. Ganso
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          11 months, 16 days ago

          Grealish. Talisman and apart from this week, his upcoming fixture run is great. If they score against Arsenal, he'll more than likely be involved.

  8. Don Kloppeone
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Trying again. No replies

    Struggling with what best to do with 2FT. Pulisic is the main issue and I may have lost patience with LIV def not delivering value.

    2FT 1.1itb
    Martinez
    Robbo*, Chilwell, Dallas
    Salah, Son, Pulisic*, Grealish
    Kane, DCL, Bamford
    (Forster) (KWP, Stephens, Branthwaite)

    A) Puli, Robbo > Ziyech, Cresswell/ Coufal/ Bellerin (2FT)
    B) Puli, Robbo > Rodriguez (if fit), Zouma (2FT)
    C) Puli > Ziyech (roll an FT)
    D) Puli > Zaha

    Cheers

    1. BeWater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 16 days ago

      I would do C. I had 2FTs this week and used both. I'm wishing I rolled one now.

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        Def the most sensible option!

    2. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Robbo to Coufal and Pulisic to KDB

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        KDB this week? Not sold on that! I can’t see him suddenly going wild vs Liverpool

        1. Ze_Austin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          11 months, 16 days ago

          It's exactly his kind of game, remember? Number 10 role in big games, and all

          And it's a long-term move with 2 FTs

          Ah well...

          A

          1. Don Kloppeone
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            11 months, 16 days ago

            The KDB of old I totally agree. But this MCI atm are a shadow of that team and I’m just not convinced yet at his price point

          2. Don Kloppeone
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            11 months, 16 days ago

            Lol you were too quick to admit defeat!

            You could be right of course ... just want to see more from KDB/ Sterling

    3. TheDragon
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Pulisic -> Zaha for me means I’ll be able to get Som -> KdB in GW10 without having to lose Kane

      So I’m doing this in the same situation.

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        Yes but I can also do the Son > KDB move if I take out Robbo also (i.e in A). Not convinced he’s worth holding onto because of the hauls he ‘should’ be getting or because he’s close given his price

        1. TheDragon
          • 3 Years
          11 months, 16 days ago

          I just can’t bring myself to get rid of Robertson. I’d love you to talk me into it though!

  9. Bretth96
    • 1 Year
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Planning to WC GW10,

    Is Mitrovic ->> Bamford/Wilson worth it for a -4 hit for 2 game weeks?

    1. BeWater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 16 days ago

      I have Mitro too. Planning to just hold him now. I'm also considering WC in GW10.

    2. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Not for 2 gws

  10. Tabasco
    • 10 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Not really sure what to do here (2 FTs, 1.3 itb):

    Martinez Forster
    Lamptey Chilwell TAA KWP Coufal
    Bissouma Anguissa Salah Sterling Son
    DCL Jimenez Wilson

    A) TAA to Bellerin
    B) Jimenez to Werner
    C) TAA and Biss/Anguiss to Bellerin and Zaha/Grealish/Ziyech
    D) TAA/Anguissa/Jimenez to Bellerin/Jota/Vardy
    E) Other

    1. bitars
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      C with Grealish

    2. BeWater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 16 days ago

      TAA to Cancelo and Grealish for Bissouma or Anguissa.

  11. ZeBestee
    • 7 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Did Chelsea play so well in the CL that their assets are now important particularly next 2? Rennes were 1 man down and conceded 2 pens.

    1. TheDragon
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Well they apparently never concede a goal and won’t ever again hence th interest in their defence.

      Chilwell = TAA except more clean sheet chance and cheaper

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      No but looks like something is coming together there

  12. TheDragon
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Help please. 1FT

    Martinez
    Robertson, Semedo, Lamptey
    Salah, Son, Grealish, Zaha
    Maupay, Kane, DCL
    4.0 | KWP, Bissouma, Mitchell

    A) Robertson -> Chilwell
    B) Semedo -> Chilwell
    C) Save FT

    1. Luton_Fan
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      A

    2. BeWater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Save.

    3. TheDragon
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      My preference is B!

      1. BeWater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        11 months, 16 days ago

        B is in no way a bad idea 🙂

  13. Luton_Fan
    • 11 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Just d imo

  14. RUUD!
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Chances of Pulisic starting this week?

    1. TheDragon
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      25% I think

      I’d normally say no chance they’d rush him in given international break is coming but havertz being out might make it slightly more likely

    2. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      It's looking unlikely

  15. Rinseboy
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Semedo to Chilwell worth a -4 this week?

    1. ZeBestee
      • 7 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Dont think so.

      1. TheDragon
        • 3 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        How about for free?

        1. ZeBestee
          • 7 Years
          11 months, 16 days ago

          Yes

    2. Bam Saka Laca
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 16 days ago

      No

    3. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      No, good move in general but not for a hit imo

  16. H-SF
    • 5 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Hey guys, this is my team:
    Ramsdale
    KWP Saiss Mitchell Trent Digne
    Bissouma Soucek Pulisic Son Salah
    Kane DCL Maupay

    0.6 ITB. 1 FT
    4 players didn't play last week. Do I need to WC? I am unsure. Help appreciated

  17. The Wizard of Ozil
    • 11 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Would you do Puli->Ziyech for a hit pre price rise or wait to here more news tomorrow

    1. The Gambler.
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Mulling over the exact same thing. Even if he plays, he’s not gonna play 90 and seems a crock?

      1. The Wizard of Ozil
        • 11 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        Yeah long term he has to go, got him in for a hit last week so another hit to take him out a week later is not easy

    2. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Not for a hit

  18. TomSaints
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Ok this is a bit rogue.

    Maupay and DCL -> Werner and Brewster

    I think the Everton ship may have sailed and while a good few fixtures coming up. I really like Werner and Maupay has been a huge disappointment

    1. TheDragon
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Absolute insanity

      1. TomSaints
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        Probably a great choice this season then haha

        1. TheDragon
          • 3 Years
          11 months, 16 days ago

          Haha - very true!

    2. The Wizard of Ozil
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Hmm not for me, I’m thinking of getting one of DCL or Maupay on this week. He should bounce back after being dropped last week

    3. Mortal.Swinbat
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Maupay > Bamford

    4. HMC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Selling 2 assets for 1, hmm it’s a no from me
      Too many good scoring options around 6m to go for Brewster

  19. Noah’s Ark
    • 8 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    How’s my lot looking?

    Martinez
    Chillwell, Cresswell, Mings
    Salah, Son, Rodriguez, Trossard
    Kane, Werner, DCL

    1. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Needs bench

      1. Noah’s Ark
        • 8 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        Doesn’t have one unfortunately

  20. Stupendous
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Anything worth doing or save?

    Got 1 ft and 1.1m itb

    Martinez
    Robbo Chilwell KWP
    Son Salah Rodriguez Grealish Zaha
    Kane DCL

    Martin Mitchell Kilman Brewster

    Thanks for your time

    1. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Save

      1. Stupendous
        • 9 Years
        11 months, 16 days ago

        Cheers

  21. FDMS All Starz
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Best Trent replacement? Money no problem

    My def: TAA - Justin - Targett - Bernardo* - Douglas*

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Chilwell ez

  22. Wetdream
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Is there a chelsea press conference tomorrow ?

    1. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Yes. Morning

  23. Twisted Melon
    • 7 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    A) Vardy and Rodriguez
    B) Wilson and KDB

  24. It’s gonna Ben Mee
    • 7 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Massive benching headache. Please help by benching two:

    A) PvA (LEE)
    B) Bam (cry)
    C) Vestergaard (NEW)
    D) Hamez (MUN)
    E) Lamptey (BUR)

  25. Fernando Torres
    • 10 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Is Mitchell to Chilwell worth a -4?

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      No doubt about that

    2. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Yes

    3. Fernando Torres
      • 10 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Thanks!

  26. Luton_Fan
    • 11 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Trossard to zaha for free or save? Tia

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Save this week

  27. g40steve
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Play one Robbo, Coufal or Lamptey?

    1. Luton_Fan
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Lamptey. But try to play coufal aswell

    2. George James
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Coufal

    3. Pep Roulette
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Robbo

    4. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Tough game but id play Robbo

    5. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Martinez
      Coufal, Zouma, Chilwell,
      Grealish, Salah, Zaha, Son C
      DCL, Kane, Bamford

      Steer, Podence, Lamptey, Robbo

  28. George James
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    0.1m short to do saiss >> Chilwell

    How do I save it here?

    Martinez • Steer
    Lamptey • James • Robbo • Coufal
    Son • Salah • Podence • Foden • Bissouma
    Werner • Kane • DCL.

    1. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Bissouma to Reidewald

  29. KAPTAIN KANE
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Good evening

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 16 days ago

      Good evening Kaptain

  30. nico05
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 16 days ago

    Hi guys is there any chance i could get some input please? 2FT and 3 mil available
    Mcarthy
    TAA Justin Lascelles Reguilon (mitchell)
    Salah Bruno Son Grealish (oirol romeu)
    Jimi Mitro (davies)
    A. TAA+Davies - Chilwell +Wilson
    B. Davies - Wilson
    C. Something else?
    I must add i plan to bring in KDB for Son in a couple of weeks.
    Cheers