Who are the best Luton and Burnley players for Double Gameweek 7?

The first Double Gameweek of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season is almost upon us.

There are low expectations as far as Double Gameweeks go, as the only two sides playing twice are the winless, newly promoted pair of Burnley and Luton Town.

In this Scouting the Doubles article, we take a look at the Hatters and the Clarets in more detail.

Key targets, underlying numbers and fixture difficulty will be assessed.

We’re also calling on our correspondents from both clubs, podcasters and keen FPL managers Dan Ashby and Adam Dennett.

DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 7 FIXTURES – AND BEYOND

Luton have the more appealing ‘double’ but they’re almost a one-week punt, as a fairly horrendous run of games follows right the way through to Christmas.

Of last season’s top nine teams, the Hatters face all bar Brighton and Hove Albion from Gameweeks 8-18.

Burnley’s Gameweek 7 appeal, by contrast, pretty much rests on the Luton game next Tuesday.

But their medium-to-long-term schedule is more positive.

It’s the matches at Turf Moor that really leap out, with Chelsea, Crystal Palace, West Ham United, Sheffield United and Everton next up in Lancashire.

GAMEWEEK 7 OPPONENTS

BURNLEY

Underscoring the lopsided nature of Burnley’s ‘double’, the Clarets are facing a Newcastle side who are posting some very good numbers despite facing the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Brighton and Hove Albion in the opening six Gameweeks.

Granted, the 8-0 thrashing of Sheffield United gave the expected goals (xG) and ‘goals for’ columns a big boost, but they were still ranked fourth for expected goals conceded (xGC) even before the romp at Bramall Lane.

For a club their size (patronising tone not intended), Luton have actually created quite a bit this season.

But the shooting boots have been mislaid, as the Hatters rank rock bottom for shot accuracy (just 17.5% of their efforts were on target) and shot-to-goal conversion rate (4.8%).

LUTON TOWN

Burnley’s underlying numbers have to be taken with a pinch of salt as they’ve had arguably the toughest run of opening fixtures in the division, having faced both Manchester clubs, Spurs and Aston Villa.

Still, only Luton have scored fewer goals per match than the Clarets this season.

Everton’s underlying stats have been surprisingly good, something Sean Dyche was repeatedly pointing out when results weren’t going the Toffees’ way.

Those figures are even better when we focus on the four matches against teams in the bottom half: a total of 8.56 xG was racked up against Fulham, Wolves, Brentford and Sheffield United.

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL – AND FEARFUL

THE POSITIVES

Burnley and Luton come into Double Gameweek 7 off the back of very decent performances in Gameweeks 5 and 6.

The closure of the transfer market has helped settle things down after a turbulent August, while both managers now appear to be closer to knowing what their best XIs are.

In Burnley’s case, in spite of the myriad new signings, Kompany has gone back to the old guard to help ease the transition into Premier League life.

The reintroduction of Charlie Taylor (£3.9m) and Josh Brownhill (£4.8m) meant that eight of Kompany’s Championship-winning squad lined up in Gameweek 5. Perhaps more importantly, six of them were either part of the back four or the two midfielders in front of the defence. It’s given a platform for the more exciting front players to shine, with Luca Koleosho (£5.0m) and Zeki Amdouni (£5.4m) catching the eye in attack.

Taylor’s recall from out in the cold has especially brought balance to the back four, after weeks of Kompany playing square pegs in round holes at left-back.

Luton boss Rob Edwards, meanwhile, has recently tweaked his system to a 3-4-3, which has helped boost his side’s width and subsequently chance creation. A total of 22 shots in the box were registered against Fulham and Wolves, a total that only Spurs and Liverpool could beat in the last two Gameweeks.

With Everton and Burnley of a similar standing to the teams they’ve just met, there’s hope that the frequency of attempts could continue into Gameweek 7.

THE NEGATIVES

As any Nicolas Jackson (£6.9m) owner will tell you, it’s no good having strong underlying numbers if you can’t put the ball in the net.

Luton have scored just once from open play this season, their only other two strikes coming from the penalty spot.

Both Gameweek 7 doublers also haven’t got a clean sheet between them, although Burnley can at least point to the tough early schedule.

Might rotation also be a worry? The two sides play twice in little more than 72 hours, so there’s always a concern that Messrs Kompany and Edwards freshen up their sides.

The good news to report from the EFL Cup in midweek is that both managers heavily rotated with one eye on the upcoming Gameweek. Kompany changed his entire XI, with Edwards making 10 alterations and retaining only Alfie Doughty (£4.4m).

A big negative to report on the injury front is the news that Albert Sambi Lokonga (£4.9m) will now be sidelined for a “few months”. He looked to be a key part of Luton’s new 3-4-3, offering midfield protection alongside Marvelous Nakamba (£4.4m), and there isn’t really a replacement of equal quality to be found.

KEY FPL TARGETS

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