In his latest Fantasy Premier League (FPL) article, three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser discusses Gameweek 37 transfer targets from Arsenal and Everton, while advising how to both chase and defend a mini-league lead.
FPL’s end-of-season chaos has already begun. The likes of Erling Haaland (£14.7m) and Nico O’Reilly (£5.3m) – who was unfortunately my ‘Project Hail Mary’ Triple Captain – got no minutes against Crystal Palace, and an ‘ex’ in the form of Phil Foden (£8.0m) started showing leg to show what we’ve been missing out on.
Adding to the woes, Manchester City will now play their FA Cup final between the deadline and their Gameweek 37 trip to Bournemouth. Good luck predicting Pep and his rotation!
What is predictable, though? We’re now looking for teams with something to fight for, or players who have personal targets to reach.
GOING FOR GUNNERS
Arsenal are certainly top of the pile, fixture-wise. If you already have one defender and one attacker from them, I’d encourage buying another Gunners midfielder or forward.
Not only do Burnley have a susceptible defence, but we saw against Aston Villa that they can be a bit gung-ho, leaving spaces at the back. In my opinion, the three attackers worth considering are Bukayo Saka (£10.0m), Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m) and Leandro Trossard (£6.5m). At this moment, I’d say Eberechi Eze (£7.3m) is a no-go, having seen Martin Odegaard’s (£7.8m) positive cameo versus West Ham United.
Only Haaland boasts more big chances than Gyokeres across the last six matches, while just he and Joao Pedro (£7.5m) beat him for non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) in the same period.
Plus, he’s a known flat-track bully with a high percentage of goals coming against the bottom teams. Fixtures don’t get kinder than a home clash against Burnley, then a trip to distracted Crystal Palace.
Saka doesn’t need much persuasion, given his recent positive minutes trajectory. However, if you’re in the market for a cheaper differential, I really like Trossard. He’s had three successive 80+ minute appearances in all competitions, while being Arsenal’s leading shot-taker and big chance creator in the last two.
I’ve always felt the club have slightly under-utilised him, as his output is always good when on the pitch. He’s recently posted strong expected goal involvement (xGI) tallies of 0.49 and 0.75, but is owned by just 1.1% of overall managers.
- READ MORE: Who is the best captain for FPL Gameweek 37?
Depending on whether you’re chasing or defending, I’d be happy to captain any of these Arsenal attackers. If it’s a big gap, Trossard (and even possibly captaining him) could go brilliantly.
CHOOSING TOFFEES
Elsewhere, another team I want to buy from is Everton. They’re at home to underwhelming travellers Sunderland, then visit Tottenham Hotspur on the final day.
I’ve always been a Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£5.3m) fan. He’s been getting into some great positions, is on a streak of attacking returns, and has some promising underlying data. I don’t even mind Iliman Ndiaye (£6.2m) as a pick, as he could easily have hauled in their last couple of games. xGI totals of 0.43 and 0.90, yet somehow coming away without any goals or assists.
Also, when picking defensively, no non-Arsenal team has two clear-cut clean sheets, but I do fancy the Toffees’ centre-backs – and Spurs’ Pedro Porro (£5.2m) – as possible transfers.
Each has multiple routes to points via shutouts, defensive contribution (DefCon) points and goal threat. Porro was really unlucky to avoid a Gameweek 36 attacking return, despite 0.47 xGI.
My fellow pod partner, Pras, made a good point in saying that, given the way this season has gone, such routes make chasing a double-digit haul just as likely to come from a defender as an attacker.
CHASING + DEFENDING
Speaking of which, here’s a bit of advice for the chasers and leaders in mini-leagues.
For those who are hunting, you have to go all-in on a ‘Hail Mary’ without holding back. A season’s final two Gameweeks can be unpredictable and random. Outside of Arsenal, look for the ‘last home game of the season’ narrative, which might help find a basketball-like end-to-end encounter.
For those who are in front, I have a very interesting statistic from padel, which is something I’ve picked up in the last year and enjoy playing quite regularly.
82% of points in padel are won by the opposition making unforced errors. So all you need to do is let the chasers take risks and make unforced errors, while you stick to doing the safe, smart thing.
We might even receive useful information that gives an ‘edge’ heading into Gameweek 38.
Anyway, I hope you enjoyed this article. If you want more, Zophar, Pras and I had a fun discussion, which you can view below.
