Comments (Last 30 Days)

  1. Who are the best FPL players to sign over the Christmas period? 8 hours, 14 mins ago

    It's irrelevant if you know in advance what points the players will score. Yes, if you assume all the options score 15 points, then EO is irrelevant. If, as is reality, you do not know the future outcome, it is still prudent to consider things like EO when making your TC decision. » Read

  2. Who are the best FPL players to sign over the Christmas period? 8 hours, 19 mins ago

    Finally some sense. So many people missing the point about potential upsides and downsides. Obviously if you knew in advance who would score the most points out of Player X and Player Y, you would give the TC to whoever that was. But you don't know, and that's why other strategic factors come into play depending on your risk aversion / upside chasing tendencies. » Read

  3. Who are the best FPL players to sign over the Christmas period? 16 hours, 24 mins ago

    Why don't people always bet on the favourite in a horse race or any sporting event? We never say "just pick the horse you think will win". Statistically the favourite is the most likely to win, and therefore make you money. However, other options might in your opinion present better 'value'. You're not actually saying that your 15/1 outsider is more likely to win the race than the 6/1 favourite, but you still decide to bet on the 15/1 outsider. That's because relative to other outcomes, you have more to gain, whilst still believing there is a legitimate chance of success. If you didn't rate the 15/1 horse at all, you wouldn't bother. If you thought that 6/1 was actually overs for the favourite, you would take the value and bet on the favourite. For similar reasons it is prudent to consider EO when using the TC chip. I know that Vardy is likely to do well this GW, so I'll make him my captain, but I'm prepared to gamble that at some other point in the season there will be an opport… » Read

  4. Who are the best FPL players to sign over the Christmas period? 16 hours, 48 mins ago

    I would even argue that if you find captaincy decisions tough or you seem to get it wrong a lot, that's even more reason to consider things like EO as a strategic tool. Your theory would be perfect for anyone with a near flawless record of captaincy picks, because then it really would just make sense to give the TC to the player you expect will score the most points. The reality is that we get captaincy wrong very often, so actually it is worth accepting that luck/variance and trying to use it to your advantage somehow - in this case, by using the TC on a player who won't have an EO through the roof, therefore minimising any potential advantage down to however many points Vardy happens to score. » Read

  5. Who are the best FPL players to sign over the Christmas period? 17 hours ago

    I do think people should consider ownership, for all the points below about advantage over the field. In any situation where you cannot reasonably predict the future outcome with precision, it does make sense to consider other relevant strategic factors. TC Vardy is a very safe decision because he will probably do well, but it absolutely 100% NOT the way to achieve the best case scenario. There's a clear cap on how well it can go. » Read

  6. Who are the best FPL players to sign over the Christmas period? 17 hours, 4 mins ago

    See that's not what I would do at all. I'd give the captaincy to whoever I thought was genuinely the best option in my team that my rival would not captain. I wouldn't slap it on someone crazy or random, I'd give to another very promising option (ideally also a player my rival didn't own) and try to get the big points swing in both directions. It's the same in GW17 or any other time, I'm looking for the biggest swing, but still doing so with reasonable decision making. I'm not going to play the TC on Rico and hope he scores 5 goals. I'm going to play it one a seriously viable captaincy pick that doesn't have an EO of 180%. » Read

  7. Who are the best FPL players to sign over the Christmas period? 17 hours, 13 mins ago

    My point is that the entire season is actually a culmination of lots of those theoretical GW38 scenarios combined towards an end result. Whether you play the TC now or in GW38, the highest possible advantage over the field (which is how FPL is judged, since you could win FPL with only 1000 points if nobody else scored more) is what you're looking for in every single decision. Who would you TC this GW if I could guarantee you one of the below scenarios: 1. Vardy scores 25 points, Salah scores 15 points 2. Salah scores 15 points, Vardy scores 1 point Now in #1, Vardy gets you the most points on offer. That's all you want, right? But against the field and comparatively, #2 is the winner because it's the greater advantage. Success in FPL is defined by how well you score in relation to your rivals, not how many points you score. And since you don't in advance how many points any player will score, you do have to take these things into consideration. » Read

  8. Who are the best FPL players to sign over the Christmas period? 17 hours, 21 mins ago

    I take your point, but the example is obviously too extreme because nobody would do that with Greenwood. The realistic comparison is Vardy x3 when virtually everyone else will be on Vardy x2 anyway, OR a genuine alternative with a roughly equal chance of success but a much lower EO. » Read

  9. Who are the best FPL players to sign over the Christmas period? 17 hours, 24 mins ago

    No worries. I agree that there won't be many better opportunities for a big haul (that it feels like we can almost trust) than Vardy this GW. The reason I won't play my TC chip on him regardless of this is because my absolute best case scenario (like a hat-trick) still doesn't gain me THAT much of an advantage over the field. If you could guarantee me Vardy gets the hat-trick, I would play the TC. But since I won't have that guarantee, I would rather play the TC at a time where I equally believe the player will do well, combined with knowing that the potential advantage over the field is considerable if I'm right. In either scenario I'm hoping to be right based on my analysis, but only in one of them can I make up huge ground in a single decision. » Read

  10. Who are the best FPL players to sign over the Christmas period? 17 hours, 29 mins ago

    See posts below for more in-depth reply, but essentially it's about where you might in theory be able to score the 45 points when many rivals won't even score the original 15 (i.e. you TC Salah and they don't own Salah). It's the best case scenario, which you might want to take a calculated risk on chasing. On the flip side, a TC with massive EO scores you 45 points but, as you say, it is really only 15 points gained on the field. The problem is that you don't know Vardy or anyone else will actually score the 15 points. You're guessing/predicting. Given that you don't know the outcome, it is not crazy or wrong to take an approach where you take a slight calculated risk on achieving the best possible score in relation to the field, not just in terms of your own team. » Read

  11. Who are the best FPL players to sign over the Christmas period? 17 hours, 34 mins ago

    Think of it this way: what would you do if it was GW38 and you needed to close a gap of around 30 points on your ML leader? You wouldn't necessarily just play the TC chip on whoever you thought would score the most points. You would factor in who the ML leader was likely to captain, and whether one of your other players also had a very strong chance of scoring well based on form/fixture compared to the slightly more obvious candidate. You would go for the biggest upside that is also realistic e.g. you probably wouldn't TC Lundstram hoping for a CS and a brace, but you might TC Salah (low EO) vs Watford instead of Vardy (high EO) vs Norwich if Salah outscoring Vardy could be the difference between overtaking the ML leader or having no chance. In either case you can't control whether Vardy or Salah scores more points in a single gameweek, but you can control giving yourself the best possible chance of the highest possible reward (and this case your only shot at victory). These decis… » Read

  12. Who are the best FPL players to sign over the Christmas period? 17 hours, 51 mins ago

    The only issue with this logic is that it assumes your predications/expectations will come to fruition i.e. Vardy's 15 points x 3 is the same as anyone else's 15 points x 3 (true, obviously), when in reality the entire game of FPL is decided by how well you take advantage of countless scenarios (including calculated risks) then get lucky with the results having made good decisions. You can say "captain or triple captain the player you think will score the most points", but you don't know they'll score the most points. Therefore, the lure of using the TC on a slight differential (in terms of something like ownership, EO, captaincy percentage) is that if/when that player does haul and other captaincy options blank, the advantage gained can be significant. You won't know until the game is played, but this approach has the greater possibility of the highest reward. If you TC a player who everyone else gives the armband, you can only gain on the field in one direction - Vardy scoring… » Read