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Comments (Last 30 Days)

  1. Aguero proves worth to Argentina at Copa America 1 day ago

    Yeah more bothered by his impact on pukki, who has big fantasy potential » Read

  2. Aguero proves worth to Argentina at Copa America 1 day, 2 hours ago

    Drmic interesting signing for Norwich. Looking very strong offensively, will be interested to see how they set up with him and pukki. » Read

  3. How much does fixture difficulty affect returns 1 day, 2 hours ago

    How much do you think teams that overperform vs top sides (and by definition therefore underperform vs worse sides) is translatable from season by season? I see this more as part of the unpredictable element of football rather than anything else, but that may be too simplistic. » Read

  4. How much does fixture difficulty affect returns 1 day, 2 hours ago

    Thanks geoff, yeah I'd sent through word doc with graph images, but no worries. A fuller set of image files are linked if helpful. » Read

  5. How much does fixture difficulty affect returns 1 day, 3 hours ago

    For sure. But I'd like to compare to other seasons as my gut is that (obviously for different team who are strong in different seasons) it would paint a similar picture as the affect of different fixture difficulties and smooth out some of the curves. So in that sense, I'm looking at a model that can be applied as general rule (like 88% goals result in an assist) which won't bear out exactly in the forthcoming season, but is a best informed guess. What it won't do is categorise teams or correct fixture difficulties which will of course change from season to season - that is the human/wider statistically informed part of the projection, and obviously the most important one in scoring real fantasy points too! » Read

  6. How much does fixture difficulty affect returns 1 day, 3 hours ago

    Absolutely, it's just a shame we don't have betting odds for several game weeks. The only caveat with anytime goalscorer is that it's generally not a pure probability model, but based on betting patterns, but I agree this is a very generalised view.The way I see this stuff (and i don't know if it's how rmt works is): average league goals/assists/fantasy assists/clean sheets/bonus (which are most steady) > projected distribution across teams > projected fixture factoring (this + decisions about which teams go in which categories going forward) > projected distribution of those returns across individual players from that team » Read

  7. How much does fixture difficulty affect returns 1 day, 3 hours ago

    Remember this is only % of returns (goals/clean sheets) not total points, so if you only get 8 clean sheets a year the bulk of your points are still going to be appearance points, so fixtures not going to affect so much absolute points wise. This would be particularly the case for cheap rotation options therefore. » Read

  8. How much does fixture difficulty affect returns 1 day, 11 hours ago

    Yeah I'm sure there may be. As above, I'm wary of the other consequences of fixture rotation, ie your team is in a mess if a decent budget option emerges you want to play all the time, which is quite likely, and missing out on some returns in unlikely fixtures. But if you stuck at it over a decent period, yeah I reckon you could get some decent projected bonuses.To do this I've just stuck the above figures into Ben crellin's fixture spreadsheet (had to do it semi-manually to have different percentages for different tiers) based on my own projections of fixture difficulties by attack and defence for next year using the banding ranges from 18/19 which isn't too arduous a task. I'd want a bit of validation with previous seasons and smoothing across the 5 categories (eg what happens if you're 4.5* defence strength) before using it categorically for rotation projections, or preferably making public, but I think if you consider it a sense of scale that's OK. With a bit of further work … » Read

  9. How much does fixture difficulty affect returns 1 day, 12 hours ago

    ... Way of doing fixture rotation » Read

  10. How much does fixture difficulty affect returns 1 day, 12 hours ago

    And finally, yes. Home+away poor » Read

  11. How much does fixture difficulty affect returns 1 day, 12 hours ago

    You saying that though makes me rethink, I may have a play around again (and lower Newcastle defence strength!). I got burnt by rotation with gross's first monster return (20 points I think it was) couple of seasons back, although that wasn't pure fixture rotation, so ive avoided since as much for minimising emotional anguish as maximising points really! » Read

  12. How much does fixture difficulty affect returns 1 day, 12 hours ago

    Thanks. On rotation, theoretically it looks good until you apply to fixtures which are much less neatly organised. The best I could get over early run of fixtures was a multiplier of 140% for Watford and Brighton defences I think it was, but to get say holebas and Duffy you'd be spending as much as a Coleman + fodder who is already able to achieve above average with fixture. Doing the sums on clean sheets I'm expecting of them over the season it was more or less the same so no real advantage. The other thing, particularly for attackers is that individual player returns in a game are much more random so while you may be able to predict team returns on an individual player level you're more likely to get it wrong from a small sample size (eg game by game). See this excellent article for reference on that: https://mathematicallysafe.wordpress.com/2018/07/08/fpl-analysis-the-impact-of-fixtures-on-player-performance/ » Read

  13. How much does fixture difficulty affect returns 1 day, 14 hours ago

    Here are the graphs and most tables. https://ibb.co/album/nPsJ3vIf a mod is able to add link/graphs into the article that would be amazing rather than it just saying [insert graph here]! » Read

  14. How much does fixture difficulty affect returns 1 day, 16 hours ago

    Apologies for the awful formatting. I will see if I can upload graphs and tables elsewhere on the Web to link as they are the main bits that make sense of it all! » Read

  15. Aguero proves worth to Argentina at Copa America 1 day, 18 hours ago

    A good match tbh if he'd come. David ginola assistant manager. We can get back to the buying/selling young French players game » Read

  16. Aguero proves worth to Argentina at Copa America 1 day, 19 hours ago

    I agree, and among our best players. Just not sure exactly how he'd fit someone else's system, feels like a 'luxury player' if you know what I mean. Would love to keep them all like, but doesn't feel like that's the mood music unfortunately. » Read

  17. Aguero proves worth to Argentina at Copa America 1 day, 19 hours ago

    Haha, can just imagine it - end every game with 9 men. » Read

  18. Aguero proves worth to Argentina at Copa America 1 day, 19 hours ago

    Takeover the key to unlock positivity and get right manager. Eddie Howe is among the odds who would be great but need a fair amount of surgery as a lot of mediocre players made to look better by astute tactics, and a fairly rigid defensive formation which looks difficult to break out of without change of personnel.A centre forward is clearly the biggest need, rondon the obvious choice. I'd love someone like batshuayi though as think could work a bit better in a less defensive tactic with pace of almiron etc.Lb/lwb too, no idea who.Then someone else with some quality in middle of the park to play alongside longstaff +1, maybe Brooks coming with howe?Others would disagree, but while he's been good this last season, I see perez as quite a limited player (not big and strong, nor super pacey nor amazing crosser, perennial 'potential') so would potentially cash in on him for someone who fits a more specific tactic (2nd striker/pacey rw).Keeping our best players and 3 smart ad… » Read

  19. A Fantasy manager's guide to expected goals (xG) 1 day, 21 hours ago

    This is a great post, thanks. It's for this reason that 3x premium defenders are my preference, because you're limited to having to play at least 3 but that is the area where there is most value generally so you want to maximise your returns. Beyond that, you're comparing max points so the 4th highest scoring viable defender must be better than the 8th best affordable/viable midfielder or striker which it rarely is, as above. Hence 343 or 352 most seasons winning out.I'm not sure I agree having to have a premium forward, but 452 seems a good distribution with 2 no players at the start of the season » Read

  20. Aguero proves worth to Argentina at Copa America 1 day, 21 hours ago

    Absolutely. Peak Ashley. And gutted as a fan, awful timing too. Fantasy-wise kills any prospects except for Ritchie if classed as a defender and plays as rw (perez + gayle upfront?!), but if I was a fpl price I'd place him as midfielder now that rafa going. » Read