The Numbers Game – ICT Form Analysis

Just three more days to go till the curtain draws on the domestic campaign, then. As many Fantasy managers look to load up on more assured Fantasy assets ahead of Sunday’s deadline, plenty more are in the position where differentials are needed for that vital edge in the final Gameweek of the season.

This latest article for members takes a look at the top ten players per position over the last four Gameweeks in accordance with our very own ICT Index averages. Also using the Opta data available, we dig deep in order to highlight some overlooked potential perhaps worth considering this weekend.

This content is restricted to Premium Members. Click here to register and get access to Opta stats, the Rate My Team tool, Points Projections, 150+ Premium Member articles, exclusive videos, a customisable Season Ticker, the FFS Transfer Planner... and more!

1,680 Comments Post a Comment

Hazard267
11 years, 12 months ago
I cant go into gwk 38 with three evertons surely g2 get rid of 1...?
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1. GRIMANDI [formerly boring M…
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Me too but im gonna have to stick. Cant see its worth taking a hit for. Rooney to aguero for me
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2. JELLYFISH
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Which 3? I'm going wih Jelly and Pie
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3. jayzico
  11 years, 12 months ago
  pie and baines for me! 🙂
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COMH
11 years, 12 months ago
Xavi or Iniesta for the Euro's and why?
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1. gledy
  11 years, 12 months ago
  iniesta (much) more advanced role
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2. A.
  11 years, 12 months ago
  If I get a Spain mid I think it'll be Iniesta, though he's hardly prolific.
  
  Highest goalscorers in qualifiers:
  
  Villa, 7 goals in 8 apps
  Silva 4 in 6
  Negredo 2 in 1
  Torres 2 in 3
  Xavi 2 in 6
  
  Also:
  Fabs 0 in 2
  Iniesta 1 in 5
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  1. COMH
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Doesn't make for great reading. I think Iniesta is pretty solid in tournaments though.
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  2. Conrad.
    11 years, 12 months ago
    yea, Ghost will likely get more assists than gols. without DV, they don't really have a out&out goalscorer...
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3. jayzico
  11 years, 12 months ago
  iniesta! xavi's old and will get less game time id say
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4. Gargamel
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Count of Monte Hristo
  
  Neither, because both are perennially overpriced fantasy footballers for what they give in concrete goals and assists.
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gledy
11 years, 12 months ago
Which is best?

A) Silva + Gallas
B) Yaya + Lescott
C) Yaya + Kompany
D) Moses + Lescott
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1. goriuanx
  11 years, 12 months ago
  C
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  1. gledy
    11 years, 12 months ago
    C? :O
    
    That's my least favorite option 🙂 I kind of fancy Lescott to score one, but he's probably "just" 99% sure to play, comparing to Kompany 100%.
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    1. goriuanx
      11 years, 12 months ago
      Kompany > Lescott. Yaya can easily run through the mid or have an attacking role.
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      1. gledy
        11 years, 12 months ago
        Lescott > Kompany as a goal threat 😉
        
        7.00 Lescott to score at any time
        8.00 Kompany to score at any time
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2. Blando
  11 years, 12 months ago
  If you have Kun/Tevez, D.
  
  Else, C.
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  1. gledy
    11 years, 12 months ago
    I have Aguero (C) yeah.
    
    I fancy D, because it allows me to keep Dempsey as a bench option (or even play him over Valencia). If I get Yaya in, I have to keep Sess, who won't do anything. And it's GW38, so benchers could be useful (SAF leaving out Valencia kind of possible).
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Bare bones
11 years, 12 months ago
People with cash leagues - what are the winners getting? Wondering what the highest is...Mine is £200
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1. goriuanx
  11 years, 12 months ago
  £1000 here. I'm at the top by 1 point. 15 year old going to be rich, soon 😉
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  1. michaelington
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Wow, just thinking how many football stickers you could get with that ! 😛
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    1. goriuanx
      11 years, 12 months ago
      Naa 😉 If I win, I'll buy Liverpool 8)
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2. Kno
  11 years, 12 months ago
  400 ish euros, 60 point lead going into the last gw for me. Got a good feeling
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3. Old Schoolᴼˢ “disa…
  11 years, 12 months ago
  £200 going to St lukes cancer hospice
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  1. ricdan
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Well done you!
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  2. Smurf
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Nice. I like that idea.
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4. GoonerByron
  11 years, 12 months ago
  £380 for mine, I'm top by 6 points 😐
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5. JOONEILL
  11 years, 12 months ago
  1000 eur (15pts ahead) + 200 eur (40pts ahead), sqeaky bum time.
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PMz
11 years, 12 months ago
Krul (Mignolet)

Verm/Walker/Terry (Mcauley, Kelly)
Nasri/Bale/Pienaar/Siggy (Valencia)
Rooney/Aguero (C)/Jelly

Any improvements needed?
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1. gledy
  11 years, 12 months ago
  that's a good gw38 team, if you have 1 free transfer left, use it on bale ➡ vdv
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  1. PMz
    11 years, 12 months ago
    None left unfortunately. Keeping tabs on rivals transfers..may consider it then. 19 points behind the leader
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The Rock
11 years, 12 months ago
Repost, ended on bottom of last pager, Chasing 17 point lead.

Bogdan
Terry, Kaboul, Caulker
Bale, VDV, Dempsey, Pienaar
Cisse, Jejavic, RVP

Mingolet, Ben Arfa, Evans, Wheater

2 free transfers and 0.7 in the bank

Was thinking maybe, Cisse > Aguero, Dempsey > Maloney/Moses and possibly Evans > Kompany for a 4 point hit?
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1. 4vets
  11 years, 12 months ago
  You expect Komps to score 4+ more than Caulker?
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  1. gledy
    11 years, 12 months ago
    It's either 4 or 5 🙂
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    1. 4vets
      11 years, 12 months ago
      Could be 11! 😉
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ChooChoo
11 years, 12 months ago
Dempsey & Suarez -> Yaya & Kun for a 4 point hit?
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XVIVX
11 years, 12 months ago
for the spanish fans: how much gametime will mata get. for 7.5, if he gets even 60 mins a game, i think he is a must have
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1. gledy
  11 years, 12 months ago
  he's more likely to get 20 mins per game.
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  1. Conrad.
    11 years, 12 months ago
    this. he's too young and low in the pecking order. Xav, Ini, Cesc, and Silva are all AMFs favored over him.
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2. A.
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Look at it this way, If Spain play 1 striker then there are 5 midfield places up for grabs, which of these would Mata be ahead of in the pecking order?
  
  Xavi, Iniesta, Alonso, Silva, Fabregas, Busquets
  
  I would say none, so he is competing for a sub role against the likes of Cazorla, Navas, Alacantra, Martinez, Pedro etc.
  
  Spain's first choice midfield is maybe:
  
  Alonso, Xavi
  Iniesta, Fabregas, Silva
  
  With Busquets as backup DM to Alonso, and the likes of Mata on the bench.
  
  Spain are too strong, so good as Mata has been, he's not starting.
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  1. CABAYE4
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Fabregas shouldn't start ahead of Busquets (or even Martinez, Cazorla or Mata imo)
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    1. A.
      11 years, 12 months ago
      You think?
      
      Fabregas has done well for Barca this season
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      1. CABAYE4
        11 years, 12 months ago
        He started the season well but recently when it really mattered he was a bit disappointing for me.
        
        Also when Spain won the WC, Fabregas didn't start ahead of Xavi/Alonso/Busquets and I'd see no reason to change the winning formula.
        
        Though he's not a bad option off the bench...
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        A.
        11 years, 12 months ago
        They had Pedro and Villa in form then, whereas now they have neither, its a tough choice.
        The base of the team is Xavi/Iniesta/Alonso, I guess Fabs fits in best as a Xavi/Iniesta replacement, rather than alongside, but there are two other slots available, Silva's form probably gets him one.
        
        I'd like to see Cazorla play though.
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        CABAYE4
        11 years, 12 months ago
        Me too actually, from what I hear he's been excellent for Malaga (think they're about to get into the CL next year?)
        
        Spain were a bit boring at the world cup so maybe they'll go with the more defensive Busquets and Alonso with Iniesta wide rather than another attacking player and have all the attacking options on the bench.
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  2. XVIVX
    11 years, 12 months ago
    well with that being said, how is this for a transfer idea: mata and lewandowski to llorente and larsson?
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    1. XVIVX
      11 years, 12 months ago
      my other forwards being robben and gomez (will turn to klose if needed)
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      1. Natas
        11 years, 12 months ago
        Stay away from that Germany Portugal game - It should be low scoring especially since it is the first game. Neither team will open themselves too much. Portugal will look to rack up against Denmark Matchday 2 and Germany will look for the same Matchday 3. Being that Germany will play Netherlands Matchday 2, they will be more attacking then Portugal, as a win vs Portugal will be a huge boost for them to advance. That can work to Portugals advantage as they are good on the counter. Either way, a tie for either team isnt a bad result as they will look to Make up the difference in Goals vs Denmark. Portugal is historically very strong against Netherlands as well.
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    2. A.
      11 years, 12 months ago
      Looks good, though i'd consider Kallstrom over Larsson
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      1. XVIVX
        11 years, 12 months ago
        cheers, thx for the advice
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Andy1
11 years, 12 months ago
My defenders are:
Hibbert, Huth, Caulker, Sagna and Evans

Should I take a 4pt hit to get in Clichy/Kompany? I am 12 points clear in my minileague
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1. Just One More Thing
  11 years, 12 months ago
  No - Hibbert, Huth & Caulker will do OK for you.
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  1. Andy1
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Thanks for your opinion - I keep flitting between keeping the three, and swapping!
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Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
11 years, 12 months ago
Anyone looking at Ramires?
Only problem for me is that it will be for a 4 point hit as I had to get Kompany in for Sagna.
Also I do not know which midfielder to get Ramires in for, also I am only going to play 4 mid-fielders.
I was thinking Ben Arfa out?
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1. A.
  11 years, 12 months ago
  I'm probably taking a hit for Ramires and Aguero, Ben Arfa out looks like a good shout, tough game against Everton
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  1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Thanks Archie, i am 50/50 on it at the moment.
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JELLYFISH
11 years, 12 months ago
11 pt lead in my ML. Team for gw with 1ft and 3.6m in the bank:

Krul (Mig)
Verm Cauker Walker (Kelly JEvans)
VDV Valencia Dempsey Siggy (Pie)
RVP Roo Jelly

Rivals team

Krul
Terry Verm Cuellar (McAuley Kelly)
VDV Valencia Dempsey Bale (Siggy)
RVP Cisse Jelly

Whats my best strategy to protect my lead? Roo>Aguero looks the obvious move, but I am thinking it robably best to sit tight and see how many transfers he makes first (he has 2 frees to my 1!). Suggestions or advice appreciated....
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1. SayWhaaaaat
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Your teams are so similar te probably best to wait. If you are up against the kind of blabber mouth that I'm in a league with, who can't shut uP about his transfers then just wait and copy one of them. Cover. You don't need to be taking punts (I realise aguero this week is the least puntish punt ever but only do it if he has him.) as its harder lose an 11 point lead when you have 9 of the same players.
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  1. JELLYFISH
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Thanks for the advice, sounds like I need to be patient and air on the side of caution
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2. Chippo, Hadji, Aloisi.
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Aguero and Torres for Rooney and jelly??
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  1. JELLYFISH
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Was considering that SteveQQ, or Kun and Ade....
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    1. Chippo, Hadji, Aloisi.
      11 years, 12 months ago
      Ade is also a good shout instead of Torres.
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Adnan Shah
11 years, 12 months ago
If you have defense of Kelly, Skrtel & Caulker, would you take 4 point hit to get Man City def or not?
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1. JELLYFISH
  11 years, 12 months ago
  I wouldn't. Better off taking a hit for attacking players....
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2. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
  11 years, 12 months ago
  No only because I was burnt by a 4 point hit for a defender last week. So my advice is biased.
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3. Just One More Thing
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Last day of the season usually has plenty of goals in it - I'd steer clear of a 4 point hit for a defender.
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Captain Shirokov
11 years, 12 months ago
http://www.unilad.com/too-much-banter.html

Absolute quality. 😀
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1. Andy1
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Brilliant story!
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2. Sleep Talk
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Wonderful! 😀
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3. A.
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Yeah, read that, hilarious.
  
  Should probably tell the mate though 😛
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  1. Captain Shirokov
    11 years, 12 months ago
    It's a tough one 😛
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kamikaze8
11 years, 12 months ago
Hi - cash league is going down to the wire - holding very slender lead

Team I'm rolling with:

Bogdan
Walker, Hibbert, Huth
VDV, Dempsey, Moses, Pienaar
RVP(c), Cisse, Jelavic
(Friedel, Evans, Simpson)

Other team has the sames players Hibbert, Dempsey, Pienaar, RVP and Cisse (+Rooney).

1 free trade - any changes?
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1. Chippo, Hadji, Aloisi.
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Get in aguero.
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  1. kamikaze8
    11 years, 12 months ago
    would need to take a hit if I brought in Aguero...unless I change RVP for him.
    
    Other option was to bring in Manc City cover in midfield with Silva or Yaya - transfer out Dempsey
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Sleep Talk
11 years, 12 months ago
In the good ol' days we could get graphs of our progression in the mini-leagues. No chance for that this year?
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1. A.
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Doesn't look like it, I hope they bring that and the team value league back next season though
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Mr Smith
11 years, 12 months ago
Which option is better:

A). Terry, Moses, Rooney, Aguero (-4pts)
B). Terry, Bale, Jelly, Aguero
C). Caulker, Bale, Rooney, Aguero (-4pts)

?
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1. gledy
  11 years, 12 months ago
  it's between A and B, while option C is very poor
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  1. Mr Smith
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Cheers mate
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2. Chippo, Hadji, Aloisi.
  11 years, 12 months ago
  A Defo
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Sess!
11 years, 12 months ago
Best midfielder 6.3m or less.....currently looking at moses, maloney or ben arfa (tough fixture I know).
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1. gledy
  11 years, 12 months ago
  moses followed by maloney and maybe petrov
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2. Captain Shirokov
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Hoolahan if you're ahead in your ML and are looking for a punt 😉
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  1. gledy
    11 years, 12 months ago
    hoo tempting but way too risky 🙁
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  2. Sess!
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Yeah I am but I don't see that many goals in norwich/villa game. Petrov in form and and option but stoke won't roll over.
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3. Gigging Order
  11 years, 12 months ago
  What about Eagles?
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  1. Sess!
    11 years, 12 months ago
    He's only been involved in 1 of bolton's last 7 games though. I'm leaving towards moses. Only downside is it means taking dempsey out and think I'd rather lose valencia, in case mata doesn't play.
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    1. Gigging Order
      11 years, 12 months ago
      He has played in all of the last 7...
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      1. Sess!
        11 years, 12 months ago
        Goals I meant
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        Gigging Order
        11 years, 12 months ago
        Ahhh ok, that is a different matter. 😉
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Andy1
11 years, 12 months ago
Which transfer to do:

A. Rooney --> Aguero
B. Cisse + Sagna --> Aguero + Santon (-4pts)

My other defenders are Huth, Hibbert, Caulker and Evans
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1. Chippo, Hadji, Aloisi.
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Id say Hugh hibbert and caulker are fine don't waste 4 pts on a hit to hope and pray for a CS just to get the points back. Any santon away to everton is unlikely to be a clean sheet for either side.
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Chippo, Hadji, Aloisi.
11 years, 12 months ago
I'm in a Head 2 Head final.
My team:
Ruddy
Komp,caulker jagielka
Demps. Valencia bale pienaar
Roo rvp cisse

Rival:
Vorm
Bosingwa turner hibbert
Mata Valencia bale Sinclair
Rooney aguero Ba

I'm looking at rooney to Aguero and cisse to Torres for 4pt hit.

My worry is Rooney and mata. Should I make the transfer or just do rooney to aguero???
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1. gledy
  11 years, 12 months ago
  i honestly wouldn't sell cisse to torres for a hit
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2. JELLYFISH
  11 years, 12 months ago
  So little to choose between your teams, and I think you have the stronger defence for the gw. I would just go with Roo>Kun myself
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Old Schoolᴼˢ “disa…
11 years, 12 months ago
Realized I asked a question earlier which was play siggy or petrov but then realized siggy was out for Moses as heed funds for tevez,.. So who to play this week Moses or petrov?
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1. Just One More Thing
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Moses...just
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Just One More Thing
11 years, 12 months ago
I seem to recall that the crucial week when Everton pulled back two goals v United, Rooney was offloaded by a multitude of people and he bagged two goals. City had Wolves and Aguero/Tevez were seen as the must-haves.

I held onto Rooney then. I feel the same loyalty for Rooney will be rewarded this week. In which case I cannot afford Aguero....decisions decisions
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1. 1966 was a great year for E…
  11 years, 12 months ago
  City were away for that game, though. I kept Rooney then, but I'll be selling him for Aguero now.
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Shakhtar Senseless
11 years, 12 months ago
Dempsey- Ramires

Cisse- Aguero

Evans- De Laet

8 point hit?
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1. gledy
  11 years, 12 months ago
  any 8 point hit which includes de laet is bound to fail
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2. Chippo, Hadji, Aloisi.
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Is that the only way to get aguero in. No unless you are chasing a lead then you have to gamble.
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  1. gledy
    11 years, 12 months ago
    he can just do rooney > aguero, much more reasonable imo
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    1. Shakhtar Senseless
      11 years, 12 months ago
      Keeping Rooney mate and it's the only way I can get Aguero.
      
      Can also do
      
      Valencia- Moses
      
      Cisse- Aguero
      
      Evans- De Laet
      
      What do you think?
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      1. gledy
        11 years, 12 months ago
        i'm positive that cisse can outscore rooney, but if you want to keep him, just sell dempsey for moses instead
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crystalpalaceRus
11 years, 12 months ago
So when do you get the option to do 'manager subs' in euros fantasy? where you can sub off underperforming players yourself for ones that are yet to play
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1. 4vets
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Read the rules. They are very clear.
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2. Hazard267
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Yh mate come on mate your not simple
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sy
11 years, 12 months ago
No cisse in the top 10 of the ict...
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Shipstontrev
11 years, 12 months ago
Who would you sell to get in Aguero between Cisse and Jelavic? Any opinions please?
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1. Just One More Thing
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Cisse.
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2. 4vets
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Don't have Jelly so am selling Cisse (keeping Ade & RVP). I'd sell Jelly.
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3. Brian (Not the Messiah)
  11 years, 12 months ago
  same dilemma as me...I think Newcastle have more to play for.
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4. Sess!
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Cisse as he's away and not on pens
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Brian (Not the Messiah)
11 years, 12 months ago
Do we think Enrique will play the final match?
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1. 4vets
  11 years, 12 months ago
  I don't see why he wouldn't.
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  1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
    11 years, 12 months ago
    he didn't against chelsea
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    1. 4vets
      11 years, 12 months ago
      Rested to play the last match? 😉
      
      Seriously, he's been LB all season long. Unless KD wants to blood new players, he will play.
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    2. A.
      11 years, 12 months ago
      Apparently that was due to a 'tightness' picked up in the final, but it could equally have been him just being dropped because he was poor.
      
      I still reckon he'll play vs Swansea though
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Tin of Directors
11 years, 12 months ago
18 pt mini league lead.
It's all I can think about this week.

Dempsey out for Dyer
Jely out for Aguero

Thoughts?
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1. Shipstontrev
  11 years, 12 months ago
  What about M Petrov instead of Dyer - if Bolton stay up, he will have been involved,
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  1. Tin of Directors
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Only 4.8 to spend sadly.
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    1. Shipstontrev
      11 years, 12 months ago
      What about Maloney of Wigan? only 4.5 and home to Wolves.
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Jafalad
11 years, 12 months ago
Those ICT stats from the blog above suggest Tevez a better pick than Aguero. The issue here is gametime and possibly, pens. Thoughts?
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1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
  11 years, 12 months ago
  ICT stats only tell half the story... if you've watched the games, you know Aguero is more dangerous more often.
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  1. gledy
    11 years, 12 months ago
    yeah, also tevez is playing deeper role
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    1. Natas
      11 years, 12 months ago
      This may be more reason for Tevez as someone in deeper role will have more openings when they park the bus.
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2. Shipstontrev
  11 years, 12 months ago
  With QPR defenders there is always a chance of a penalty, so it's Aguero for me.
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3. 4vets
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Just did a quick Google on stats quotes. The first one was "An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination." 🙂
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  1. Sess!
    11 years, 12 months ago
    Ha ha, that's awesome quote!! 🙂
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4. Sess!
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Aguero by far the bigger threat. I'll have both tho so covering my bases 🙂
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  1. Natas
    11 years, 12 months ago
    I dont know if necessary really - QPR to park the bus and squeak out a tie. United to lose or tie as well and city still get the title.
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    1. TorresMagic™
      11 years, 12 months ago
      QPR need 22 players to squeak out a tie.
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    2. Sess!
      11 years, 12 months ago
      QPR parking the bus is like using a box of eggs to defend a sledghammer.
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      1. Natas
        11 years, 12 months ago
        That tactic seemed to work well for Chelsea vs Barcelona with 1 player down. I trust hughes will have his defense prepared for this one considering they need only a tie to survive.
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Hazard267
11 years, 12 months ago
Its last week so taking 8 point hit

Mata - Jelavic - Valenica - OUT, Ramires - Yaya Toure - Torres IN..............?
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1. 4vets
  11 years, 12 months ago
  The last week makes it OK? I guess it depends on what you have to play for, or not.
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2. Sess!
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Both ramires and toure will do nothing imo
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3. Sess!
  11 years, 12 months ago
  P.S - Why mata out? You confident he won't play? I have him as well and really not sure. He might start and get taken off if mierles and mikel both doubts. Saying that absolutely no need for him to be risked.
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Natas
11 years, 12 months ago
What do you guys think about this Euro Strategy

Do best Possible team for Just Matchday 1 -
Use Wildcard and do best possible for Matchday 2 -
Matchday 3 - bring in just a couple of key players for Matches that matter as there are usually many players that get limited starts if their teams have passed already. I think by Matchday 3 - Russia & Greece will have already qualified - Spain will have qualified and One of Netherlands, Germany or Portugal.

For GW1 - must haves for me are Dzagoev - RVP or Robben - and Ibrahimovic - Robbie Keane a good shout as well as Croatia defense is pretty Horrible. Defensively, I like Greece(even though playing a home team), Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, and unfortunately France.

GW2 must have Ronaldo, Nani, Italy attackers De Rossi, Montolivo, Pirlo,etc - Fabs, Llorente,Ribery, Benzema

For quarters have unlimited for semis have 8 free so I dont see any reason to save wildcard other than perhaps for Matchday 3 - If matchday 1 has some upsets, then perhaps saving it makes sense, otherwise 2 clean teams for Matchday 1&2.
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1. A.
  11 years, 12 months ago
  Looks like a good strategy, a one week punt team on fixtures is quite enjoyable too 😉
  
  I wanted Dzagoev, but he is currently a doubt with a broken toe, hopefully he recovers.
  
  I'm not sure Ronaldo is ever must have for 11m, he never seems to perform for Portugal
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  1. Natas
    11 years, 12 months ago
    He did rather well his first Euro and is still our leading scorer. Portugal also didnt have Nani at WC and Ronaldo was completely strangled. I think with Coentrao behind him, Moutinho in Midfield, Nani on the right, and Meireles and Pepe lying deep for Defensive cover, Portugal has enough strength all over the pitch to open up space for him.
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    1. Natas
      11 years, 12 months ago
      the big question is who they put up frnt CF. Hope they give Nelson Oliveira a chance - hes a very good finisher, just needs more experience.
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