Selection Guide – Goalkeepers

While we’ve chosen to start our guides with a look at the goalkeepers, so often this is an area of our Fantasy lineups that’s neglected or cast aside until later. There are clearly more exciting and sexy options to explore elsewhere in our squads and, if we can muster enough funds to fill the two slots, then that can sometimes be the only requirement.

And yet, we need to get it right. We saw last season how a bargain can quickly escalate in price – Michel Vorm becoming one of the hottest properties in Fantasy Football. Using transfers to swap keepers is also, so frequently, done with great reluctance with more pressing issues elsewhere in the squad.

Crucially, the initial selection of our goalkeepers works best when paired with our defensive choices. As we’ll see throughout this article, so often you’ll need to consider the potential offered in defence before narrowing your goalkeeping shortlist. In many ways, it can pay to decide on the three or four defenders you consider essential – either for clean sheet potential, attacking threat or for their value as budget options; it’s only then that you can really begin to close in on your choice of keepers.

Before we start analysing the viable strategies, let’s first explore the concept of keeper rotation, a factor that can potentially govern your selection.

The premise is simple: select a pairing of goalkeepers that combine to give you a clear path of “easier” fixtures, Gameweek after Gameweek, or at least a long string of home matches. By achieving this, your selection each week is decided for you: there is always an obvious route to take, with your two keepers alternating neatly.

There are, of course, teams that combine perfectly to ensure that one of your keepers always presents a home game. However, home fixtures don’t guarantee clean sheets so the alternative is to look to rotate your keeper selection according to perceived fixture difficulty, home or away. This is the ultimate hands-on option and can also prove a frustrating tactic when things fail to run to form, which, when it comes to the pursuit of the fragile clean sheet, they inevitably will.

Should you explore the option of rotating to difficulty, our Fixture Ticker comes in handy. In particular, the option to drag rows around in the Members Ticker allows you to view two or more teams and compare the difficulty of fixtures for the purposes of identifying rotation options.

Before you become settled on this strategy, however, it’s worth considering the likelihood of finding that “perfect” combination. Frustratingly, either by design or accident, it appears the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) have almost perfectly balanced the pricing in this respect.

The best possible pairing of keepers outside of the top bracket last season was Tim Krul of Newcastle and Michel Vorm of Swansea – together, those two sides returned 29 clean sheets to United’s 20 and Man City’s 17. That cumulative total of 29 was impossible to achieve from a Fantasy perspective, though – in some Gameweeks both Newcastle and Swansea kept clean sheets and the chances of always the selecting the right option from the pairing each week was the stuff dreams are made of.

For the sake of argument, however, let’s take some liberties and presume that Newcastle and Swansea rotated perfectly last term, giving a sequence of 38 home matches. Even then, these two options would have combined to give a return of 18 clean sheets – two less than United and just one more than City.

Significantly, Newcastle and Sunderland always rotate their fixtures perfectly to offer 38 home matches. Should you have pursued that option with Krul and Simon Mignolet last season, you would have earned just 16 clean sheets due to Mignolet’s spell out with injury.

That same North East pairing will set you back 10.5 this season, while Krul and Vorm are available for a total of 11.0 – Joe Hart and a 4.0 benchwarmer is available for the same price, while that benchwarmer with United’s David De Gea is an option for just 10.0.

There’s a clear argument that rotating to difficulty is not only a frustrating game to play, it can also come up short against a heavy hitter/budget combination. It’s also pretty obvious why De Gea is rousing interest in pre-season; we’ll see later in the article how the United goalkeeper situation could well be pivotal to our overall strategy in this area.

First, however, let’s go through the various configurations available…

Double Budget

With no goals and few assists and bonus points on offer, the temptation to be thrifty and preserve funds for other areas of the squad is overwhelmingly strong. The combination of two cut-price keepers is a popular route, then, and certainly one that has brought success in previous seasons.

The onus is on save points to make up the deficit created by a potential lack of clean sheets. While the theory that cheaper keepers see more action and therefore generate more saves is a sound one, it’s worth noting that, in terms of saves per minute last season, only Wayne Hennessey and Vorm eclipsed De Gea.

Even with a perceived advantage over the higher priced options with regards to save points, the shake-up can often see the clean sheet count emerge as the dominant factor in keeper scoring, however. A budget keeper is unlikely to top the keeper scoring charts – although in the case of Michel Vorm, they may come close. The example set by Dutchman last season, together with the funds via budget keepers, make this strategy particularly attractive.

When taking this route in the FPL game, you’re looking to spend no more than 9.0. All the 4.0 keepers are benchwarmers which means you’ll need to pair a couple of 4.5 selections to cover your keeper spot and give you a rotation option.

Norwich City’s John Ruddy and West Ham’s Jussi Jaaskelainen are currently the most popular selections in that bracket with 12.4% and 8.6% ownership respectively. As a combination they work okay: up until Gameweek 9 they allow for a run of eight home matches but, following that, they go somewhat out of sync.

Adam Federici’s appeal for Reading’s double fixture in Gameweek 1 makes him another worthy consideration in the budget bracket; one which only 4.3% of FPL owners have so far embraced. A pairing with Jaaskelainen presents 10 home matches in the first 11 Gameweeks and, arguably, is the best double budget pairing available over the course of the season.

There’s a further consideration here, however. As mentioned in our introduction, it’s wise to consider your keeper selections in line with your defenders and, in the case of West Ham and Reading, both teams present potential defender selections in the 4.0 bracket. Both George McCartney and Kaspar Gorkss could be first choice options in their respective defences and would give you coverage for a combined fee of 8.0 as opposed to the 9.0 offered by their keepers. It may not work out but, if there are two good 4.0 defenders on offer, you want to be in the position to exploit the option, ideally without risking doubling up on a cheap defence. The same factor applies to Kelvin Davies in the Southampton goal – with Jose Fonte available at 4.0, the defender offers potential coverage of the Saints defence for a cheaper price.

Crucially, perhaps, this brings us back to John Ruddy of Norwich – although 4.0 priced Ryan Bennett and Marc Tierney are looking to push for regular starts, the intentions of new Canaries boss Chris Hughton are not yet established enough for us to snap up their services with any degree of certainty. QPR’s Robert Green also begins to appeal – there appears to be no obvious alternative in Mark Hughes’ backline available for less than 4.5. The selection of Green and Ruddy would therefore leave the option open to look to the likes of McCartney, Gorkss and Fonte as budget defenders.

Sadly, the Green/Ruddy combination is perhaps not the best when it comes to rotation, to bring the best out of one of those two options, you’ll likely need to consider the next strategy and a tad more spending.

Mid Price/Budget

Loosening the purse strings just that little bit more opens up a world of options. By expanding your search to the mid-price bracket you can arguably bring in a greater chance of clean sheet returns and hugely increase the rotation options available.

The first step is to perhaps identify your mid-price keeper of choice – this is where the bulk of your investment is going, he will presumably bring the greater clean sheet potential and therefore, of your two keepers, you’ll be selecting him more often.

Newcastle’s Tim Krul and last season’s stopper supreme, Michel Vorm, are already commanding great investment with 20.8% and 17.6% ownership to this point. Both are available in the 5.5 price bracket, which will push your keeper spending up to the 10.0 mark, should you look to pair them with an active budget keeper.

While Krul and Federici looks a pairing worthy of consideration, Vorm appears less suited to rotation with a budget keeper, although there are options. West Brom’s Ben Foster, available for 5.0, is another who looks to work well with Federici, while Mark Schwarzer’s (5.0) combination with QPR’s Green is another that seems effective on paper.

Again, though, the consideration here is the defenders. Brede Hangeland is available for the same cost as Schwarzer and offers both goal and bonus potential. The same can be said of Liam Ridgewell, Gareth McAuley and Jonas Olsson in the Baggies defence, although Hangeland does looks even more generous at 5.0 and is set to severely dent the appeal of Schwarzer. If you’re not looking at the Fulham skipper, however, Schwarzer with Green looks a strong pairing.

Double Mid Price

Now we’re into dangerous territory. Suddenly, from shelling out a paltry 9.0, you’re considering going over the 10.0 mark and committing yourself to some hands-on management to ensure you get the most from such investment.

Again, by spending that bit more, you’re opening up more options. The question to ask is whether this will actually reap the rewards – as we’ve already discussed, the acquisition of the perfect rotating partnership is a big ask and requires sound judgement throughout the season.

The keeper’s mid price bracket is also hindered greatly by the defensive options on offer. For Simon Mignolet of Sunderland, for example, you can pick up the goal threat of Phil Bardsley for the same price, or Carlos Cuellar for 0.5 cheaper. We’ve already discussed Schwarzer and Foster with respect to their defences: the same can be said for Krul and Vorm – there are good options in their respective back fours which offer decent attacking potential available for cheaper: Steven Taylor and Angel Rangel are both up for grabs for 5.0.

Tim Howard and Brad Friedel look to be the exception in this bracket. While they will both set you back 5.5, looking at their defences, there is no assured starter available for that price (Younes Kaboul could come close). What you’re getting with either of these two is secure starts in a mid-price defence for 5.5 – with the bonus of save points.

Having shelled out 5.5, however, you’re unlikely to pair either of them with another mid-price option. Luckily, if you take one of this pairing and look to the budget keepers, you can find good combinations. Federici works well with both, while Friedel/Green and Howard/Ruddy also has legs.

Heavy Hitter/Budget

By splashing the cash on a top bracket keeper, you’re almost adopting a “fire and forget” approach. Joe Hart could very well be your one stop solution all season and, by pairing him with a benchwarmer such as Radek Cerny or Declan Rudd (both at 4.0), you’ve found yourself a keeper solution for 11.0. Opt for the popular but less secure David De Gea at United and you could even achieve a heavy-hitter setup for just 10.0.

Both City and United should push to and even beyond 16+ clean sheets this term so – how sure can you be of bettering or even matching that with a combination of 9.0 or 10.0 keepers? Will Norwich and West Ham, for example, combine for 16+ clean sheets? It’s certainly debatable and you’d probably have to get your selection spot week on week on to achieve it.

The appeal of De Gea, of course, is that he offers coverage of the United defence for just 6.0. While Anders Lindegaard is a clear threat to his starts, De Gea’s early return from Olympic duty has boosted his stock and confidence in him is now renewed.

While a 4.0 benchwarmer will free up the cash, this is where Adam Federici really comes back into the reckoning. Not only does the Reading stopper offer an immediate double Gameweek, he also combines effectively with Hart, De Gea and Pepe Reina should you want to have the option to rotate your heavy-hitter when faced with stern opposition.

For 10.5, the Federici/De Gea combination looks very strong – particularly when you factor in the initial double Gameweek. The United keeper situation is absolutely key, however. If Lindegaard does materialise as a true contender for league starts, suddenly all bets are off. Our strategy is therefore somewhat in the hands of Sir Alex Ferguson – not for the first time and, doubtless, not for the last.