The Pre-Match Preamble – Gameweek 16

It was inevitable that I’d end up signing Edin Dzeko at some point. It’s just a shame that the Fantasy Gods had to twang Sergio Aguero’s knee and de-rail City’s title challenge to make it happen.

Dzeko is a weakness of mine. Looking back on my Gameweek 1 Preamble, I’m somewhat amazed at my oversight: I left his acquisition out of my season predictions.

I partly blame the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) for feeding this alarming habit. Every season they price him up in such a tantalising way – a bit-part valuation for a player who, every year, always seems to get the opportunity to play more than a just a cameo role.

The simplest of statistics tell us that this looks to be the worst time to take a chance on Dzeko. After huffing and puffing in Rome, he’s now gone 10 games without a goal. Blank at Leicester and he’ll equal his longest drought of his City career – the 11 games from November 2011 to January 2012.

Here’s the counter-argument, however. Of those 10 matches, Dzeko started six, playing 90 minutes just once. In four of those 10, Dzeko has played less than half an hour. So Dzeko’s form guide is a nice stat to roll out to underline the potential cost of Aguero’s absence, but the Bosnian has hardly been given the opportunity to replicate last season’s form that earned him 16 goals in 31 league appearances.

Despite this reassurance and the player’s own overwhelming confidence, Dzeko doesn’t look ready to prop up City’s title tilt just yet. While he ran his proverbials off in Rome, he looked more than a yard short.

My only hope is that, with David Silva returning and Samir Nasri in bloom, Dzeko won’t need to pluck “worldies” out of the air to score points. It’s straw clutching, but not without logic: when it comes to presenting goals on a platter, those two are midfield servers of the highest pedigree. Indeed – forget Silva – both Nasri and James Milner are creating a goalscoring chance every 25 minutes this season – faster than any other midfielders in the league.

Some dare to label Dzeko a “donkey” and, even if I go with that opinion, I have to conclude that he’ll be a very well-fed donkey – like the tubby kid in the nativity play. Let’s stretch this festive analogy further: Aguero is City’s Joseph but he’s cried off with tummy ache, leaving Dzeko and his hind legs and the three Wise Men (Silva, Nasri and Milner) to save the show. Can they pull it off?

There are plenty of skeptics; many who say that City will struggle against an opposition without Aguero. That’s certainly been in evidence: at times, Aguero has dragged City to wins and draws. However, Silva’s influence is also significant and the importance of his return cannot be underestimated.

City have also been here before: they won 11 of 15 league outings without Aguero last season. The Argentine missed two major periods – ironically last Christmas from Gameweek 17-21 (I bought Dzeko then, too) and a few weeks later, from Gameweek 24-33. Without Aguero in the side, Dzeko scored six goals in 10 starts over those spells.

So there you have it. The case I used to convince myself to sign Dzeko when, in all honesty, it was probably out of my control anyway.

Last Christmas I gave him a start and the very next day I regretted it. I wonder if I’ll feel the same come today’s final whistle in Leicester. I wonder if I’ll kick myself for ignoring Georgie Boyd when he’s been so good to me.

What’s really scaring me now, however, is that this transfer gives me the funds to fetch in Aleks Kolarov at the back. Somebody stop me.