Winter Wildcard Strategies

As you’ll know by now, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers have been handed their second Wildcard of the season. The “use it or lose it” winter Wildcard affords us the chance to freshen up our 15-man squads and prepare for the remaining Gameweeks of the campaign.

Some will be considering putting it in play immediately – others may even have it active already. The urgency to instigate the refresh will, of course, be dictated by current rank, red flags and a general lack of so-called “essential” assets. The New Year began with a disappointing whimper for some, so the lure to press the button immediately may have proved too strong.

That’s not necessarily a bad decision: there’s no strict right or wrong time to play the Wildcard, although the ideal scenario is perhaps to take time to assess factors that may influence our final squad selection. Managerial dismissals and appointments, new player signings, international tournaments and the emptying of treatment rooms all play a significant role in dictating both the timing and targets involved.

So when is the optimum time to start tinkering? While we will follow up with specific guides on the players to target, in this article we’re going to look at the timing options, weighing up the benefits of dealing it early or sitting on your hands and delaying the refresh.

Before we delve deeper into the analysis, let’s remind ourselves what the FPL site has to say on the relevant time period for utilising the winter Wildcard:

“The January Wildcard can only be used after Gameweek 20 starts (1 Jan 11:30) until Gameweek 23 ends (7 Feb 11:30).”

Timing the Wildcard

There is one rather obvious benefit of delaying the Wildcard: the longer you can delay it, the more scope you have in terms of picking up new arrivals in the Premier League. So far, there have only been four confirmed newcomers – Southampton’s acquisition of winger Eljero Elia, Swansea’s loan move for striker Nelson Oliveira and purchase of highly rated playmaker Matt Grimes, in addition to Tottenham’s decision to bring forward the arrival date of US international right-back, DeAndre Yedlin.

None of those are likely to have an influence on Fantasy managers but, in seasons gone by, the mid-season impact of Papiss Cisse and Nikica Jelavic at Newcastle and Everton serve as reminders of the potential on offer from winter signings; the former notched 13 goals in 14 appearances and was an outstanding mid-price prospect back in 2011/12.

With Saido Berahino potentially on the move and Manchester City and Liverpool also sniffing around Swansea’s goal machine, Wilfried Bony, it’s clear that there could be significant transfers that would impact on our Wildcard squad selection.

This season, Fantasy managers also have to consider the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations (ACoN) and Asian Cup tournaments. As mentioned in our in-depth article, the ACoN runs from January 17 until February 8, and with training camps already under way, some players could conceivably be absent from domestic duties from now until Gameweek 25. If you have Yaya Toure and/or Bony on board, for example, now’s the time to part company.

The Asian Cup (from January 9-31) is less of an issue in terms of Premier League participants. Palace skipper Mile Jedinak is the most high profile here – he’s already left to meet up with the Australia training camp and, given that he’s notched five goals and two assists already, will be a big loss to new boss Alan Pardew.

There’s also the impending return of Sergio Aguero – arguably the most crucial factor to consider at a time when other premium-priced forwards are failing to justify their lofty valuations. With Manuel Pellegrini confident his star striker could return in two weeks’ time, it’s vital we monitor noises from the Etihad and potentially shape our Wildcard selection around the Argentine.

With all this in mind, let’s examine the timing scenarios in more detail, assessing the factors that come into play and the pros and cons of each.

Playing it Early

In times gone by, the mid-season Wildcard has been ideal for jumping aboard the New Year bandwagons and drafting in players prior to a hike in price – a rise of 0.2 or 0.3 was more than commonplace. This term, however, a tweak in the FPL pricing algorithm means this is no longer such an overriding factor: player prices now rise and drop with far less regularity.

In saying that, though, there’s no doubt the Harry Kane bandwagon will prove an exception. The Tottenham youngster’s stunning 18-point return at home to Chelsea underlined his fixture-proof potential and, still at a price of just 5.5, he’s set for huge investment prior to Gameweek 21 – indeed, over 220,000 Fantasy managers have already acquired his services following Thursday’s haul.

One look at the form page on FPL shows that, aside from Chelsea duo Eden Hazard and John Terry, no other player has bettered Kane’s displays over the last 30 days. Whilst on one hand that merely enhances his appeal, it also highlights the lack of consistent performances over the festive period by a number of big-hitters, ensuring that, on the whole, the New Year bandwagons are a little less obvious than in previous seasons.

Terry’s three goals over the last four has offered excellent value compared to team-mate Branislav Ivanovic, for example, and at a price of 6.5 to the Serbian’s 7.2, those looking to invest in the league leaders’ defence have the chance to free up cash by opting for their skipper. Elsewhere at the back, those who chose to part company with Southampton’s defence may decide now is the time to return to Ronald Koeman’s backline, after they held their own against the likes of Everton, Chelsea and Arsenal in recent weeks.

Overall this season, the slowing of price changes also lessens the appeal of using the Wildcard to fetch in obvious bandwagons, purely to earn cash in advance of finalising our squads: the 0.2 price hikes required to make a profit are now rarities. Yes, Kane and Terry could gain you 0.1 prior to setting your squad in stone but would you really want to sell either?

The arrival of Tony Pulis and Alan Pardew at West Brom and Palace respectively hands both a chance to immediately take advantage of some fine fixtures. According to our fixture ticker, the Baggies have the second most favourable schedule over the next six (HUL, eve, TOT, bur, SWA, sun) and faith in their rearguard is sure to be on the rise in light of the new manager’s ability to organise and reinforce a defence. Ben Foster, Andre Wisdom and Joleon Lescott could be set for an upturn in fortunes with the former Stoke and Palace boss at the helm.

Similarly, the Eagles are ranked third for strength of schedule (TOT, bur, EVE, lei, NEW, ARS), though Pardew faces a tough task with arguably his two key players – Jedinak and Yannick Bolasie – leaving for international duties. On the flipside, this could hand opportunities to Jason Puncheon and Wilfried Zaha to prove their worth, with the former perhaps set to be handed spot-kick duties in his captain’s absence.

One major downside to playing the Wildcard early is, of course, missing out on the possible batch of new arrivals. If your incentive for dealing early is to try to make up ground on mini-league rivals, signing several players already settled in their line-up, which were purchased for a cheaper price, is unlikely to help your cause. There is perhaps more merit in holding on to see if they play their Wildcard first and then deal yours to address as many differentials as possible – within reason, of course.

Obviously, the ability to completely reconstruct your team affords the opportunity to gain ground on rivals and, by also playing the upcoming fixtures, there’s a good chance of closing the gap on them. Having said that, if you consider the January Wildcard as your biggest opportunity to make some points back on a rival, you have to remember that, by playing yours first, you’re showing your hand. Your rival will get to see your selection on the following deadline and, while you may make up some ground initially, they will have their own Wildcard to use to cover and react to any differentials you may have acquired, potentially nullifying your advantage pretty quickly. This is not a major consideration if you have another Wildcard up your sleeve but, if that’s also spent, you have to think about playing canny with this one last opportunity.

The Pros
Potentially an instant boost for those suffering red arrows.
You can catch the current market trends.
You can exploit the managerial merry-go-rounds.
You can exploit the January fixtures.

The Cons
It’s easy to fixate on bandwagons.
You lose the ability to build around new player-list additions.
You can’t build a team around the current crop of injured heavy-hitters.
You reveal your hand to mini-league rivals.

Playing it Late

Arguably, the later you leave your winter Wildcard, the more options you have available. As mentioned above, the imminent return of Aguero will have a major say in restructuring our three-man frontlines – quite simply, there’s been no other forward capable of producing the type of explosive returns offered up by City’s star striker and he looks certain to remain a strong captaincy option once fit and firing.

You also have to consider that Daniel Sturridge is expected back in mid-to-late January, whilst Arsenal duo Aaron Ramsey and Mesut Ozil and Man United’s Angel di Maria are also likely to return before the month is out. Play your Wildcard early and you may waste the opportunity to build your team around such key figures. Delay it, and you’ll get to assess their form upon returning and weigh them up next to any new additions to the player list.

The return of Toure and Bony (and, to a lesser extent Southampton’s in-form Sadio Mane and West Ham’s Diafra Sakho) from the Africa Cup of Nations is another reason to hold fire. Granted, if any of these players progress to the final, they may not return until Gameweek 26 but a late Wildcard and a couple of free transfers could address that problem – furthermore, if they exit at the end of the group stages (January 28), their returns would be perfectly timed.

Crucially, the later you leave it, the more information you’ll have to influence your decisions. This extends beyond team and player form – we may yet see postponements that lead to potential double Gameweeks, and the Capital One Cup semi-finals this month will reveal the finalists, certainly creating postponements in Gameweek 27 and a likely double Gameweek to follow. At present, Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs all still remain in the hat.

Furthermore, as we mentioned above, by delaying their Wildcard, those Fantasy managers near the summit of mini-leagues can give themselves a chance to assess their rivals’ new-look squads. At this point, the Wildcard template is likely to differ from a typically popular 15-man set-up by the time Gameweek 24 comes around, allowing you the opportunity to draft in a number of players who were previously off the radar.

For those who pressed the button on New Year’s Day, the quick turnaround in fixtures from Gameweek 20 to Gameweek 21 gives us just nine days to assess our Wildcard plans. Looking up the upcoming schedule, there’s a full two weeks between the start of Gameweek 22 (January 17) and Gameweek 23 (January 31), potentially offering greater variety of options for those who are content to delay matters.

Indeed, if possible, it can be a wise tactic to hold a couple of free transfers and throw in some differential selections, perhaps even a heavy-hitter punt as a captain choice. You can take such a risk safe in the knowledge that you can then rectify your squad in time for the following week’s round of fixtures by laying down the Wildcard. As an example, you may back Robin van Persie or Angel Di Maria with the armband at home to Leicester in Gameweek 23, knowing that, as soon as the Gameweek begins, you can deal the Wildcard and ship him out of your squad during the week that follows, prior to Gameweek 24.

Delving deeper into our fixture ticker, United, Arsenal and Southampton’s matches all take a turn for the better around the Gameweek 23 mark. That aforementioned home clash with Leicester in one of three Old Trafford showdowns in five (LEI, BUR, SUN) that hand Louis van Gaal’s side the chance to rack up the goals. Similarly, the Gunners have three matches at the Emirates (AVL, LEI, EVE) from Gameweek 23-27 and the Saints have four home matches in six (SWA, WHM, LIV, CPL) from that point onwards – clearly, then, by showing a little patience for a couple of Gameweeks, it’s possible to take advantage of significant turnaround in the schedule.

The Pros
You will have more data and information at your disposal.
You can exploit any new players that arrive in the Premier League window.
You may be able incorporate the current crop of injured heavy-hitters.
You give yourself the opportunity to plan short-term differentials.
You protect your strategy from your rivals.
You may be able to react to your rivals’ Wildcards should they play it early.

The Cons
You forgo the potential to immediately revive your squad.
You may pay a premium for a bandwagon target.