Scouting the Doubles – Aston Villa

Aston Villa’s quest to escape the ever-present threat of relegation sees them visit Manchester United and entertain Queens Park Rangers in their double Gameweek 31. Aside from Burnley in their final match-up of the campaign, the Villains face only top-table sides from here on out, making it imperative they emerge victorious against the R’s.

The Prospects

Villa go head-to-head with a buoyant United outfit in the first test of their double. Following months of insipid football under new boss Louis van Gaal, the Red Devils have finally found a balance between high-tempo build-up play and positional discipline. They’ve recorded four successive league victories in recent Gameweeks – including commanding performances against top four rivals Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur – and now sit just two points shy of second-placed Manchester City. Although Wayne Rooney has been effective as the focal point of their attack in Robin van Persie’s absence – notching three goals in four outings – United’s improvement has been predicated on a new-found cohesion rather than individual flair, meaning Tim Sherwod has a tactical duel on his hands.

Christian Benteke and Gabriel Agbonlahor have banished their barren runs in recent match-ups yet could struggle to breach a rearguard that’s recorded clean sheets in their previous two clashes at Old Trafford. United have conceded the second least amount of goals (10) at home this term behind Chelsea (six), restricting Spurs and Liverpool to a combined 12 goal attempts and one big chance in their last two fixtures.

The West Midlanders should fare better when they play host to the Hoops on April 7. The visitors are on a run of five straight defeats and have only registered a single victory away from Loftus Road this term. No side has conceded as many shots from inside their box as Chris Ramsey’s team in the last five Gameweeks, which could play into the hands of Benteke, given that he ranks fifth for penalty-box touches during that period. Charlie Austin – whose goals (15) account for nearly half of QPR’s tally (31) this campaign – remains the biggest threat to Villa’s back line, despite the English marksman drawing a blank in his last three starts. Matt Phillips has been directly involved (four assists, one goal) in five of the London club’s last seven strikes and will also pose problems for Sherwood’s outfit.

Likely Lads

Christian Benteke looks determined to atone for his failings in the first two thirds of the campaign, having tallied just two goals in 18 appearances prior to Gameweek 28. Since the West Midlands derby, the imposing frontman has played with a renewed focus, bagging three goals in as many starts and netting for Belgium in their 5-0 win over Cyprus. Villa’s perilous run-in (tot, mci, EVE, WHU, sou, BUR) and blank Gameweek 33 renders the 7.5-priced forward an unlikely long-term investment, but there’s scope for strong attacking returns in the double.

Gabby Agbonlahor matched Benteke’s goalscoring exploits in recent matches while playing up front alongside the Belgian hitman in a 4-4-2 set-up. At 5.3, Agbonlahor has the potential to offer great value in the double, yet Sherwood may elect to revert to a 4-3-3 – that transitions to a 4-5-1 when not in possession – for their trip to Old Trafford, shifting the Villa stalwart onto the flank. That being said, Agbonlahor has fashioned two more attempts on goal (11) than Benteke (nine) in their five fixtures under the new man in charge, making him an enticing prospect if Sherwood retains the two-striker formation – a scenario more likely, given his propensity to attack.

Scott Sinclair (5.2) could be the next best bet in terms of attacking returns beyond the Villains’ strike duo. Although the former Swansea winger has created just one chance for his team-mates in the last five Gameweeks, he’s mustered seven shots from inside the box in his four appearances over that period – put into perspective, only three midfielders (David Silva, Alexis Sanchez and Sadio Mane) have produced more shots from close-range in their respective last four matches. Furthermore, three goals in Villa’s previous seven fixtures in all competitions is evidence of Sinclair’s scoring potential.

The Punts

In spite of Villa’s miserable form under former manager Paul Lambert, Brad Guzan still ranks among the top nine goalkeepers in the Fantasy roster in terms of total points accrued (99). With only one clean sheet in his last 10 outings, the American shot-stopper is certainly a left-field choice, yet QPR’s dreadful scoring record on their travels (10 goals in 14 match-ups) bodes well for a potential home shut-out. With so many injury concerns at the back for Sherwood, Guzan offers a guaranteed pair of starts and his average of 3.3 point per appearance is superior to any defensive team-mate.

Charles N’Zogbia has hardly set the world alight in his 1024 minutes of pitch time this campaign, tallying two assists to date. However, the 5.2-priced winger’s underlying statistics over the past five Gameweeks suggest he’s been unlucky not to improve on those figures, having attempted a shot on goal with greater regularity (33.9 minutes) than any of his team-mates. N’Zogbia has now started each of the last three under the new man in charge but has failed to make it past the 80-minute mark on each occasion as Sherwood freshens up his options on the flanks late on in matches.