Great Expectations

Great Expectations – Danny Rose

Danny Rose’s prospects looked bleak at the start of the 2014/15 Premier League season. Much to the delight of Tottenham’s fan base, Swansea left-back Ben Davies arrived midway through the summer transfer window, with the logical assumption that he would usurp his underwhelming counterpart in due course. That didn’t transpire, however, and – aside from a brief spell in the second quarter of the campaign – Davies was restricted to bench duty.

Under the tutelage of Mauricio Pochettino – who’s culturing a reputation for transforming young full-backs into accomplished defenders – Rose began to display greater positional discipline while offering an ever-present outlet on the wings. Although he never developed into a Fantasy favourite due to Tottenham’s obliging back line, an improvement on that front next term would greatly enchance Rose’s standing.

Key Factors

  • Notwithstanding Tottenham’s awful defensive record last season (they conceded the third-most goals of any league side and registered just nine clean sheets), Rose posted the highest Fantasy score (103) of his career. Having never tallied more than a solitary goal in a season before, the former Leeds academy product chalked up three last term – a haul that was only bettered by four other defenders. Furthermore, his minutes per goal average (829) ranked seventh among those defenders that clocked up more than 1000 minutes. In terms of his creative output, Rose’s assist tally (five) was only bested by Leighton Baines (nine), Daryl Janmaat (eight) and Branislav Ivanovic (six), illustrating his evolution as a Fantasy asset under Pochettino.

 

  • The fact that Rose directly contributed to eight goals last season offers promise that the previously maligned left-back can develop into a top pick in his price bracket. A paucity of shut-outs (six) and bonus points (ten) ultimately limited his overall output, which is subsequently expected to keep him around the 5.0 mark when the player price lists are rolled out. Considering that West Bromwich Albion and Southampton’s prime defenders could be in line for a price rise off the back of their strong seasons, Rose could offer a great alternative to those second-tier gems.

 

  • The Lilywhites closed out the 2014/15 campaign with back-to-back clean sheets – the first time they’d achieved that feat since Gameweeks 1-2. This display of defensive resolve began just two days after Pochettino spoke of his mission to tighten up Tottenham’s rearguard and improve the balance of the side. The Argentinian boss led Saints to 14 shut-outs in his one and only season at St Mary’s Stadium, suggesting he’s well versed in the principles that underpin a solid defence. Handed the luxury of a full transfer window to recruit players that suit his high-pressure system, there’s hope he can batten down the hatches at White Hart Lane and improve the prospects of Spurs’ defensive starters, with the acquisition of Kieran Trippier and Kevin Wimmer and possible arrival of Toby Alderweireld a sign that Spurs may be a decent prospect next time out.

 

  • Pochettino’s favoured 4-2-3-1 set-up relies upon pacy, hard-working full-backs to provide the width in the absence of traditional wingers – a challenge that Rose appears to have accepted with aplomb. Both the eye test and Rose’s underlying statistics reveal that he’s been granted greater license to maraud down the left flank in 2014/15; his minutes per shot improved from 132.3 to 103.7, while his minutes per chance created also stepped up from 124 to 92.2 under Pochettino. Moreover, the Doncaster-born left-back ranked eighth for defenders in terms of total shots (24) and tenth with regard to key passes (27), demonstrating his potential for attacking returns.

 

  • Having seen off the challenge of Ben Davies in the second half of last term, Rose claims a strong grip on Tottenham’s left-back berth. His dramatic upturn in form has reportedly courted interest from Premier League giants Manchester City and Chelsea, while Pochettino’s praise certainly suggests that Rose has his backing for the campaign ahead:

“Danny has been the best English left-back this season. I look at the stats and other players in his position. I also look at his performances, which have been great. But that’s my opinion. The final decision will be Roy Hodgson’s. The experience with Luke Shaw last season was fantastic. But now he’s in another context and at another club. You have to realise that players change every year. Every year is different as things happen in our lives. I am not his manager and it is difficult to speak about players at other clubs. I can only explain my experience with him. It is important to give opportunities to young players if they have talent. We provide them with training and push them. After that it’s up to the player. All players all need to feel confidence from the staff, players and supporters.”

1,759 Comments Post a Comment
  1. The Saints of Footballing B…
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 months ago

    Must confess I am a bit surprised by the lack of interest in the Saints defence... OK with Schneiderlain going and Al but I guess it was Wanyama who was the pure dm in the squad last season, and the replacement of Schneiderlain imo would be passer rather than the tackler. I may be wrong but I reckon the defensive form of Southampton last season was due to the whole defence, Wanyama, their style of play, Koeman and importantly, kind fixtures which led to build-up of some form. Their opening fixtures this time are as good, and they must be able to sign Aldie who plays at LB for Belgium...
    Irrespective of their pricing, I'm sold on atleast one soton defense.

    1. Wilshere Knowledge
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 months ago

      Morgan+Clyne+Forster+Toby+Europa+Bertrand missing the start of the season.

      1. Lucy.
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        Toby is an unknown at this point 😀

      2. Beavis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        Arguably an advantage that they're match fit + ready with EL games (at least for start of the season).

      3. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        Bertrand missing?

        1. Wilshere Knowledge
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 9 months ago

          Check the home page. Will miss at least GW1.

          1. Eze Really?
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 9 months ago

            Thanks mate.

    2. Lucy.
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 months ago

      Interestingy, Schneiderlin does more defensive work than Wanyama, according to the stats.

      1. Dino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        But us the less defensive of the two 😉

        1. Dino
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 9 months ago

          Is*

        2. Lucy.
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 9 months ago

          Yes, it's an odd one. I guess Wanyama does more marking/shadowing and disciplined work that isn't apparent in the stats.

          1. Dino
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            8 years, 9 months ago

            Together they are beast mode cms though and the protection they gave the back 4 was better than any other cm combo in the league imo. Ye will defo miss Sneiderlin if he moves imo

            1. Lucy.
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 9 months ago

              Nothing we can do about it unfortunately, apart from secure a good fee and buy a decent replacement. That is the life of the smaller teams in the Premier League.

      2. The Saints of Footballing B…
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        But I was talking abt the opening fixtures last year, I guess Wanyama was in good form...
        BTW by the looks of it aldie loan deal had a 6.8 MN purchase clause which wasn't cancelled (before deadline) so I guess soton are the stronger side ATM.

    3. Somalion
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 9 months ago

      After Matic Schneiderlin made the most number of tackles as a CM last season with Wanyama third. If he goes they lose a strong defensive component, something that will put me off their defenders until his replacement is settled and sorted.

    4. Lucy.
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 months ago

      The probably pricing puts me off, considering Europa and a changed defence. It makes the investment quite risky. If there's a bargain, I'll be interested.

      1. Captain Peacock
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        Is Bertie out for long? Targett a possible cheap option?

        1. Lucy.
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 9 months ago

          5-6 weeks. So he'd miss maybe 2 or 3 weeks? Probably not worth it.

        2. The Saints of Footballing B…
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 9 months ago

          They seem to have marked an FC twente def as a replacement, but he seems to be a squad player who can play at lb, rb and cb!!! Squad player Imo...
          BTW what comes of gardos?

          1. Lucy.
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 9 months ago

            He's not a replacement. He may cover if Targett doesn't. We're talking about a very short-term injury here 😀

            Gardos stays there, being not very good? 😀

          2. Eze Really?
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 9 months ago

            What is wrong with Yoshida? To be honest, I liked him the most out of the CD's last year when he played.

    5. pompeyfan
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 9 months ago

      Alderweireld plays RB for Belgium was far as I'm aware

      1. Lucy.
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        This is true but I didn't want to pick 😉

  2. Coldplay
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 9 months ago

    Did anyone catch the run chase by Pakistan against Sri Linka? Finest piece of test cricket that is. Younis Khan scored an unbeatable 171 n/o and Misbah showing the king he is of test cricket led Pakistan to a calm victory. That was quite a match.

  3. The Saints of Footballing B…
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 months ago

    Also koe has been too outspoken about the aldie issue, he seems confident...
    I wouldn't believe the British press till Levy moves in the open

    1. Lucy.
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 months ago

      Indeed. I think Saints feel they've got a pretty waterproof legal case.

      1. Lucy.
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        waterproof? Brain fail. *watertight.

  4. A post of the new kind
    Wilshere Knowledge
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 9 months ago

    New post.

  5. Old Schoolᴼˢ “disa…
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 9 months ago

    Lucy,

    with reference to Toby situation. Surely the player has a say in the matter... If he doesn't want to go to the Saints then no one can force him. If AM have blundered by missing the deadline date then they pay compensation which Spurs will no doubt stump up for...

    Why would you want a player that if if true doesn't want to play for you?

    1. Lucy.
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 months ago

      He is quite willing to play for us apparently 🙂 He hasn't rejected us at all.

      1. Old Schoolᴼˢ “disa…
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        posted on new post... I don't believe this is correct...

  6. Twisted Saltergater
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 9 months ago

    Hey guys and girls, morning!

    Something that popped out of my discussion with Ryan last night (http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2015/07/06/great-expectations-danny-rose-2/?hc_page=5#hc_comment_10457160), was the role player pricing has to play with how quickly team templates form.

    For me, it is probably the one aspect to the game FPL must get right, and with the game about to go live, I kind of hope they're listening.

    First off, what I mean by "template" is an FPL starting 11 that only differs by 2 or 3 players among equally ranked teams. It's the team that tends to take shape based on price and form.

    What do you make to this. If ALL players had the same price, would teams be more or less template?

    If this were to happen, you could actually pick anyone. We would all be allowed to select our preferred 11 with no price restrictions, and there is a good chance we'd all gravitate to the highest scoring players from the past seasons. We'd be rotating Arsenal and Chelsea defenders and alternating United/City attackers, trying to gain a small advantage. Teams would be more template.

    So the combination of player pricing and managing a limited budget needs to test how much we really value a player. We need to be that kid in the sweet shop but with only a pound* to spend (insert value and currency of your domestic and economic status 😉 ).

    Consider this.

    It takes a few overpriced player to reduce the enjoyment of the game.
    It takes just one undervalued player to break the game.

    Harry Kane had a starting price of 5m last year. Largely not expected to feature in the Premier League, he went on to be a regular scoring 21 goals in the process. Arguably, he was essential in FPL regardless of price. The fact he was 5m (4.8m to some!), meant he could fill a spot in your starting 11 and free up funds to get premium picks in other positions.

    The issue was exacerbated by the form of Charlie Austin, who made a mockery of his 6m price tag. But, I'm prepared to accept that Austin was priced correctly and simply had an outstanding season.

    There is a difference. If Kane hadn't happened, there was enough variance in strategies to keep things interesting. Some managers will have sold Austin as fixtures worsened due to QPR struggling, and punted on another 6m striker. With Kane being in the Spurs side, strikers around his price point were playing for worse teams, while the regular strikers for Top 6 teams all cost 2m+ more. He was simply too great a bargain to transfer out for the majority of last season.

    What I think FPL Towers are trying to achieve is that fine balance of, "If you want Aguero, Hazard, Sanchez, Silva, etc., then you're going to need to compromise elsewhere". I think this can be accomplished simply by having a minimum price per position, per team. This could be based on where teams finished in the league the previous season (or combination of seasons), or even total goals scored and conceded.

    For instance, the cheapest defender would be determined on a sliding scale from most CS (most expensive) to fewest CS (least expensive). Regular starters could be priced 0.5m more expensive and attacking defenders a further 0.5m more.

    On the attacking front, the minimum price would be determined by the number of goals the team as a whole score. I think FPL largely have this right with the likes of Arsenal and Man City - the cheapest striker is usually around the 7.5m - 8m mark.

    The aim here is to make more like-for-like replacements, so managers punt on different players based on form/fixtures and not solely on price.

  7. gaurava1216
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 9 months ago

    Thought I would bring up a few questions ahead of the new season- and hear your thoughts....

    1) Best Watford/Norwich and B'mouth defenders?
    2) Thoughts on Sanchez/Aguero actually starting the season?
    3) Best New player? Depay/firmino/ayew/ Payet?
    4) thoughts on rotation keepers for the start of season?
    5) Best 3 way rotation defenders with 2 anchors?

    Would be good to get ure feedback

  8. Jonny JAB
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 months ago

    5.5m not 5 unfortunately 🙁 !