Moving Target – Claudio Ranieri

Earlier this month, Leicester City appointed former Monaco and Chelsea manager Claudio Ranieri on a three-year deal, following the dismissal of Nigel Pearson. The Italian returns to the Premier League for the first time since being relieved of his duties at Stamford Bridge back in 2004.

The History

Ranieri’s first major managerial job saw him take up the reins at Serie C outfit Cagliari, following stints at small Italian sides Vigor Lamezia and Campania Puteolana. After leading the Red-blues to two successive promotions, he was rewarded with a contract at Serie A giants Napoli. During his two-season spell at the Stadio San Paolo, Ranieri oversaw the emergence of talismanic Blues frontman Gianfranco Zola, who netted 12 league goals during the 1991/92 campaign.

Ranieri then dropped down a division to take the helm at Serie B side Fiorentina, having posted a 36.67% win percentage at Napoli. He commandeered Viola to a first-place finish in his first season in charge, before bagging both the Coppa Italia and Supercoppa Italia in the 1995/96 Serie A campaign.

Valencia then came calling in 1997, with the Italian presiding over the Oranges for two successful years that harvested a Copa del Rey trophy and qualification to the UEFA Champions League. A switch to Atletico Madrid in 1999 was far less successful; amid Rojiblancos filing for administration and struggling to stave off relegation, Ranieri resigned before being given the push.

Notwithstanding his failed venture in Madrid, Ranieri plotted a course to Chelsea in the summer of 2000. It’s here that the self-effacing Italian earned the moniker “Tinkerman”, due to his penchant for seemingly excessive rotation. Following two sixth-place finishes, he steered Chelsea to Champions League qualification in the 2002/03 season by beating Liverpool on the final day.

Ranieri’s then lead the Blues to their best league position in 49 years, finishing behind the iconic Arsenal “Invincibles”. They also reached the Champions League semi-final that year but lost out to Monaco 5-3 on aggregate, with many attributing the defeat to Ranieri’s unorthodox tactical approach. Chelsea set a club record for the fewest number of goals conceded (30) and highest number of points tallied (79) in the Premier League era, yet Roman Abramovich elected to appoint Jose Mourinho as their new head coach.

After leaving Chelsea, Ranieri returned to Valencia to replace the Liverpool-bound Rafael Benitez, before accepting positions at Parma, Juventus, Roma, Inter Milan, Monaco and the Greece national side over the next seven years – never lasting longer than two terms at any one club. Most recently, Ranieri was sacked just four months into a two-year contract with Greece after claiming just one point in the first four fixtures of their Euro 2016 qualifying campaign.

The Previous Regime

Nigel Pearson began his second stint as Leicester manager from November 2011, having experienced a fractious relationship with previous owner Milan Mandaric. In his first season in charge, the Foxes marginally improved on their efforts under Pearson’s predecessor – Sven-Goran Eriksson – placing ninth in the league. Leicester sneaked into the play-offs in the following campaign, but their quest to reach Wembley was thwarted when Anthony Knockaert missed a last-minute spot-kick in the second leg of the semi-final against Watford.

Leicester recovered from that disappointment to claim a dominant title win the following term, amassing nine more points (102) than second-placed Burnley (93). Pearson’s troops strung together an unbeaten run of 20 matches midway through the campaign while also setting a new club record for successive victories (nine). In light of Leicester’s convincing promotion to the Premier League, Pearson was honoured as the LMA Championship Manager of the Year.

After recording an eye-catching 5-3 win over Manchester United in Gameweek 5 last term, Leicester went 13 league ties without a win, placing them at the foot of the table over Christmas. The Foxes looked destined to succumb to relegation until a miraculous streak of seven wins and a draw in the final nine league matches propelled them out of the bottom three – having been seven points adrift of 17^th-placed Sunderland after 29 fixtures.

Despite engineering a great escape, Leicester chose to relinquish Pearson of his duties on 30 June, stating that their relationship was “no longer viable”. This culminated from a build-up of incidents throughout the season (insulting a fan, an altercation with Crystal Palace’s James McArthur and an argument with a reporter) and close-season (sex tape scandal) that ultimately served to render his on-field successes secondary.

The Season Ahead

Unexpected rotation is the bane of a Fantasy manager’s existence, so Ranieri’s reputation as a tinkerer will cause concern for those eyeing up Leicester assets. Indeed, it appears that the soft-speaking Italian hasn’t shed his propensity for drawing up unusual formations and fielding players out of position during the intervening years: Ranieri deployed Greece in a 4-2-4 set-up during their home loss to Northern Ireland, tasking two low-energy midfielders with running the engine room.

Nonetheless, Ranieri has been quick to confirm he doesn’t intend to make too many alterations to the Foxes playing style after their superb end to the previous season. Leicester’s late surge up the table was based on Pearson’s decision to operate with a 3-4-1-2 and the new man in charge hinted he may well be set to stick to that system.

Speaking at the Foxes training camp, the Italian went on to say:

“When we return to Leicester I will start to speak tactically with them and I am interested to see how quickly they begin to understand my football. It will be very close to how they are used to playing because it’s impossible to change too much. I have seen they are solid when they play three at the back. So we can either play with three midfielders or two in the middle and two on the flank. I don’t want to change too much, just to give them the Italian tactical way.”

Providing he keeps faith in the three-man backline, then, Fantasy managers will be optimistic in light of their late-season displays. The likes of Robert Huth and Wes Morgan – both 4.5 in Fantasy Premier League – offered plenty of threat in the opposition box last term and should continue to offer excellent value. Club captain Morgan is currently featuring for Jamaica in the Gold Cup, though, and it remains to be seen if he’ll be afforded a rest or slot immediately into the starting XI.

It’s worth noting that defensive resolve hasn’t been a prominent feature during Ranieri’s final seasons at Monaco, Roma and Inter Milan, though. The former Palermo defender guided the latter two clubs to sixth-place finishes at the end of his respective tenures, but only three sides conceded more goals (52) than Roma that term, while just the bottom five clubs were breached on more occasions than Inter Milan (55). In addition, Monaco conceded the most (31) goals among the top three during the 2013/14 Ligue 1 campaign.

Further up the field, such a formation also bodes well for one of Marc Albrighton or Riyad Mahrez on the right, whilst new boy Christian Fuchs and Jeffrey Schlupp will battle it out on the opposite flank, with the Austrian’s experience – and dead-ball prowess – perhaps giving him the edge.

Judging by Ranieri’s words, he could operate with either a 3-4-1-2 or 3-4-3, then, and the latter system could see the likes of Jamie Vardy and even new signing Shinji Okazaki fielded out wide in the front three. This may well strengthen Leonardo Ulloa’s claim as the likeliest central option – the Argentine is less versatile than Vardy and Okazaki and could be utilised as the target man if Ranieri opts for a lone striker system. Given that the likes of Andrej Kramaric and David Nugent are also in the mix, though, there’s no shortage of options should the new man in charge opt for a two-man frontline instead.

The worry is that whilst Ranieri may keep faith in the Pearson system, his multitude of options could persuade him to rotate, particularly up front. During his final season with Monaco, for example, he only retained the same strike pairing once during their final nine fixtures – instead choosing to alternate Emmanuel Riviere, Dimitar Berbatov, Anthony Martial and Valere Jermain on a regular basis.

Looking at the fixtures, with clashes against Sunderland, West Ham, Bournemouth and Villa in the first five, Leicester – who play only three of last year’s top seven (TOT, ARS, sou) in the first 13 Gameweeks – certainly offer Fantasy managers one of the kindest opening schedules to the 2015/16 season.

For now, it remains to be seen whether the Italian’s arrival will trigger plenty of chopping and changing or if he’ll look to consistency of selection to afford his new side greater stability. Given that all Leicester strikers are priced at 6.0 or under in the Fantasy Premier League, there’s certainly potential for value in out three-man attacks. However, if Ranieri reverts to type, it may well be that our investment is safer at the back, where you’d certainly expect less need scope for rotation.

Leicester are yet to start their pre-season programme – Tuesday’s outing against Lincoln will provide the first insight into Ranieri’s thinking and the first opportunity to assess their assets in the light of his appointment.