Spot the Differential – Gameweek 5

We turn to City’s big-money midfielder in our Saturday-morning quest for some overlooked alternatives once again. West Brom’s new frontman and Leicester’s consistent striker also come into consideration as the Gameweek 5 deadline draws close.

Kevin De Bruyne

Considering that Kevin De Bruyne racked up 10 goals and 20 assists – the most of any player across the top five European leagues – last term, the former Chelsea recruit’s 10.0 price tag looks totally justifiable. With David Silva ruled out of Manchester City’s trip to Crystal Palace this weekend, their newest arrival suddenly looks odds on to earn his debut at Selhurst Park.

To further highlight his potential for attacking returns, De Bruyne’s key-pass frequency (one every 27.45 minutes) in the Bundesliga bettered any Premier League midfielder last season, while his key-pass haul (111) outstripped David Silva’s 93. Although he chalked up two fewer goals than the Spain international, one might expect De Bruyne to be afforded a greater volume of shooting opportunities in England’s top tier, given the superior calibre of Man City’s supporting cast compared to Wolfsburg’s.

For all their expansive, eye-catching attacking play, the Eagles have registered just one clean sheet in their previous 17 league matches, stretching back to last term. The odds are stacked against them as they attempt to shield a Sky Blues outfit that’s tallied more goals (10) and shots on target (29) than any team so far. Looking further ahead, Man City’s favourable schedule leading up to the Manchester derby in Gameweek 10 sets the stage for De Bruyne to experience a quick start, with three home ties (WHU, NEW, BOU) in the next four Gameweeks serving as ample encouragement.

Salomon Rondon

After scoring twice against champions Chelsea and beating bitter rivals Stoke in the last two Gameweeks, West Brom will approach Southampton’s visit to The Hawthorns with a renewed sense of optimism. Having established himself as the spearhead to Tony Pulis’ attack, big-money buy Salomon Rondon could be the man to profit. Since making his debut in Gameweek 3, the Venezuelan has played a part in two of his side’s last three strikes, courtesy of a goal and assist, and although he’s arrived back late from international duty, is expected to lead the line against Southampton later today.

Poring over Rondon’s underlying statistics, he tallied more shots (four) than all but four forwards last Gameweek, while only Graziano Pelle (eight) fashioned more attempts inside the box (four). Furthermore, Pelle and Aston Villa’s Rudy Gestede (14) were the only frontmen to amass more penalty-box touches (13) than the Baggies new boy.

Priced at 7.0, Rondon could emerge as a key candidate in the mid-priced bracket ahead of an enticing run of fixtures. Beyond the Saints clash, the West Midlands outfit enjoy a promising trio of home fixtures (EVE, SUN, LEI) and three excellent road matches (avl, cry, nor), heightening our interest in their chief goal threats. With Sadio Berahino back in the picture, too, there’s greater confidence in the Baggies’ attacking prospects over that period.

Jamie Vardy

As the only nailed-on starter among Leicester’s strike force, Jamie Vardy (6.1) presents an enticing route into a Foxes side that’s ranked joint-third for goals scored (eight). The England international has two goals and two assists to his name so far this campaign and will be licking his lips ahead of Aston Villa’s visit to the King Power Stadium, given that Leicester have averaged three goals per match in their past five home outings.

Vardy’s stats pertaining to goal threat have been steady (only seven forwards have recorded more than his four shots on target), yet it’s his distribution figures that really court our attention. The ex-Fleetwood Town hitman was an assist-machine (12) last season and is on course for a similar creative output this campaign – only Harry Kane (eight) has executed more key passes than Vardy (seven).

The Foxes fixture list doesn’t turn nasty until Gameweek 14 (MUN, swa, CHE, eve, liv, MCI), so prospective investors will feel confident retaining their low-priced assets for a lengthy period of time. In the immediate future, road clashes against Stoke City and Norwich are certainly worth keeping any eye on in the knowledge that neither side has earned a clean sheet yet this campaign.