Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 18 – The Weak

Having assessed the sides with the most favourable schedules over the next four-to-six Gameweeks yesterday, we now focus on the teams who could struggle over the upcoming period. Chelsea’s attack may have fired against Sunderland last weekend, but the champions will face tougher opposition in the coming weeks, while the sensational form of Bournemouth and Watford may be hard to maintain over the festive period.

Chelsea

With no favourable fixture over the next six Gameweeks from an attacking point of view, the start of Guus Hiddink’s second spell in charge at Stamford Bridge may not be particularly straightforward. Man United have conceded the fewest number of shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks with 16, while Watford have only let in two goals in their last four matches. Trips to Selhurst Park and the Emirates also look difficult match-ups, leaving only the home clash against Everton in Gameweek 22 as a reasonable fixture. Chelsea attackers have barely featured in the thoughts of Fantasy managers over the past few months, though Willian, Pedro and Oscar all picked up points against Sunderland and will be looking to push on from their weekend performances.

The outlook is not much brighter at the other end of the pitch, although the West Brom encounter in Gameweek 21 is very favourable. Crystal Palace, Watford and Arsenal are among the highest scoring teams over the last four Gameweeks, while Everton have found the back of the net in each of their last five away matches. Given Man United’s struggles in front of goal, that could be seen as a reasonable fixture, but while Thibaut Courtois (5.2) and Kurt Zouma (5.5) are well priced and possibly worth holding, there certainly doesn’t appear any need to invest in the Chelsea backline unless we see a significant improvement under Hiddink.

Bournemouth

Eddie Howe’s side may be full of confidence having put together three successive wins, but with just two clean sheets registered so far this season, and with difficult trips to Arsenal and Leicester on the horizon, it’s hard to see that defensive record improving in the near future. Crystal Palace are also hard to keep out on their travels, so while the three fixtures at the end of this current block (WHM, NOR, sun) are very favourable, the festive period appears unlikely to yield defensive returns. The Cherries full-backs did once again illustrate their attacking potential in the 2-1 win over West Brom though, with Adam Smith (4.0) and Charlie Daniels (4.5) both getting on the scoresheet.

Averaging two goals a match over the last five Gameweeks, Bournemouth have been a really dangerous attacking unit of late. Clashes against Palace and Arsenal over the next two Gameweeks will provide real tests, though, while West Ham’s defensive record of late makes that fixture in Gameweek 21 also look pretty difficult. The Norwich and Sunderland matches do offer a ray of light, though, and with the bargain price tags of the likes of Josh King (4.6), Junior Stanislas (4.2) and Dan Gosling (4.6), they are probably worth holding on to for when the Cherries schedule eases in the New Year. King and Stanislas remain doubts for the festive period, though, after both sustained hamstring problems last time out.

Watford

With three double-digit scores over the last four Gameweeks, including a 13-point haul in what looked a fairly tough fixture against Liverpool, Odion Ighalo (6.1) is beginning to look somewhat fixture proof. The match against Tottenham looks the most difficult in the next six, with Man City’s fragility at the back again exposed by Arsenal on Monday night. The away trip to Chelsea on Boxing Day isn’t a great fixture, but Ighalo’s form could well see him register attacking returns once again, while Southampton and Swansea have been struggling to keep sides out on home turf. Troy Deeney (5.2) is perhaps best left alone for the time being, then.

The Hornets rearguard has been one of the strongest defensive units so far this season, and is currently full of confidence following three consecutive shut-outs. Only three teams (Crystal Palace, Man United and Arsenal) have managed to score at Vicarage Road this season, but given those clubs are currently in the top six, as are upcoming visitors Tottenham and Man City, there could well be enough quality in those two sides to find the back of the net. Chelsea will also be in confident mood after a morale-boosting victory against Sunderland, so while the final three fixtures on the current slate (sot, swa, NEW) are reasonable, we perhaps shouldn’t expect too much from the likes of Allan Nyom (4.7) in the short-term. The right-back and all members of the Watford backline certainly have to be retained, though, given their current form.

Be Wary Of…

Leicester
Riyad Mahrez (7.0) and Jamie Vardy (7.7) continue to defy the difficult fixtures for the Foxes, but the pair face further tough matches against Liverpool, City, Tottenham and Stoke in the next six. Favourable fixtures against Bournemouth and Villa also mean the deadly duo appear likely to keep up their remarkable goal scoring exploits so far this term.

Claudio Ranieri’s men have generally been a much tighter defensive unit in recent weeks, but they have conceded against higher quality opposition such as Chelsea and Everton, so keeping out the likes of Liverpool, City, Bournemouth and Tottenham could prove beyond them. Danny Simpson (4.1) may not be of much use over the festive period, but given his price it’s no great harm if he’s left on the bench for the next few matches.

Everton
The Toffees favourable schedule comes to an end after this weekend’s trip to Newcastle, with Stoke, Tottenham and City to follow for Roberto Martinez’ troops. Much like with Ighalo and Vardy, faith has to be kept in Romelu Lukaku (9.3) until he fails to deliver in multiple matches, but the decision on whether to hold onto Ross Barkley (7.5) or Gerard Deulofeu (6.4) doesn’t look so straightforward given the fixture list.

Everton have conceded eight goals in their last four matches, and at this point appear unlikely to be able to keep Tottenham, City or Chelsea at bay. The other three matches over the next six Gameweeks (new, STO, SWA) are pretty favourable, but with members of the Toffees defence setting us back at least 5.5 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), they appear unlikely to attract much investment.

Liverpool
Jurgen Klopp’s men have stuttered in front of goal recently, failing to score in their last two away matches, and the trip to West Ham in Gameweek 20 could prove to be another tough away day. The clash against Sunderland is slightly more favourable, but with strong defensive sides Arsenal and United to face at Anfield, goals could remain an issue for the Reds during the upcoming period. The jury is out on Philippe Coutinho (8.5), then, following successive blanks.

With injury concerns over Simon Mignolet (5.0) and Martin Skrtel (5.6) ruled out, allied to the prospect of facing free-scoring Leicester and Arsenal in the next four, defensive returns may be in short supply at Anfield. The Sunderland and West Ham match-ups are reasonable, though, while United’s aforementioned struggles in front of goal render that fixture fairly decent. The owners of Alberto Moreno (5.0) could well remain patient, then.

Southampton
The Saints have failed to score against strong defensive teams such as Stoke, Palace and Tottenham over recent weeks, so it’s hard to hold too much confidence over whether they can turn that around in tough match-ups against Arsenal, West Ham, Watford and United over the coming period. Even the other two fixtures, against Norwich and West Brom, are far from favourable, so those still holding onto Sadio Mane (7.7) and Dusan Tadic (6.9) should probably assess alternative options.

The outlook is much rosier when it comes to the outlook for the Southampton defence, with West Ham and West Brom struggling for goals, while the Norwich and United clashes also appear pretty reasonable. Without a clean sheet in their last five matches, though, patience in the expensive Virgil van Dijk (5.6) is no doubt wearing thin.

Swansea
Goals have been a problem for the Welsh side through the last few months, having failed to score in five of their last seven matches. Up against three very solid defensive units (WBA, cpl, mun) over the next three Gameweeks, it’s hard to see their fortunes improving. The home encounter against Watford in the New Year could also be tricky, leaving only matches against Sunderland and Everton as favourable match-ups. Sales of Andre Ayew (7.0) may well continue, then.

The Swans did pick up only their third clean sheet of the campaign in the goalless draw against West Ham, and with all of their shut-outs coming at the Liberty Stadium, upcoming home fixtures against West Brom, Sunderland and to a lesser extent Watford offer genuine hope of further defensive points. Trips to Palace, United and Everton put a serious dampener on any potential investment.