Spot the Differential – Gameweek 25

Our usual early Saturday scour for overlooked Fantasy options comes around once again this morning. Southampton and Newcastle’s new boys are joined by Swansea’s resurgent playmaker as all three prepare for a home fixture this weekend.

Charlie Austin

Having shaken off a knock that sidelined him for Southampton’s stalemate at the Emirates, Charlie Austin (7.0) is in contention for a starting berth ahead of West Ham United’s visit. Even in the event that the English marksman has to settle for a cameo role in the second half, he showcased his capacity to deliver attacking returns in reduced minutes against Manchester United, emerging from the bench at the 79-minute mark to seal a late winner.

In appreciation of Romelu Lukaku’s form, fitness and Gameweek 27 blank, many of the Belgian’s 42% ownership are scouring the market for a replacement forward. Jamie Vardy – as the second-most transferred-in player this week – represents the most popular choice because of his recent renaissance (three goals in two starts), yet, having netted 18 times for relegated QPR last term, Austin’s goal scoring pedigree suggests he could prove a viable alternative.

In terms of Austin’s immediate prospects, West Ham are in the midst of an eye-catching purple patch (one loss since Gameweek 14), but Ronald Koeman’s side will draw confidence from the Irons’ less-than-stellar stats away from the Boleyn Ground: they rank third for shots inside the box conceded (127) in road match-ups, while only five sides have conceded more big chances (20).

Gylfi Sigurdsson

The first 19 Gameweeks of the season yielded just two goals and one assist for Gylfi Sigurdsson (7.0), belying the attacking productivity (seven goals, 10 assists) that saw him emerge as a prime mid-priced asset last term. In the Swans’ last five outings, however, the Iceland international has re-established himself as a viable option on the Fantasy market, notching a pair of penalties and two goals from open play.

Although Sigurdsson’s assignment to dead-ball duties comprises a large part of his appeal, his underlying statistics across the previous four Gameweeks illustrate the depth to his game: he ranked in the top 10 among midfielders for attempts (10), while only Christian Eriksen managed more shots on target (eight) than the ex-Spurs playmaker (six).

Sigurdsson’s assist potential (one this campaign) has been limited by the pitiable form of Swansea’s forward contingent, so Alberto Paloschi’s impressive 45-minute debut stint against West Brom in midweek – in which he recorded three shots inside the box and struck the woodwork – portends an upturn in that regard. Certainly, both men will fancy their chances this Saturday as Francesco Guidolin’s unit prepare to host a Crystal Palace outfit that places second for goals conceded (10) since Gameweek 21 and rolls up to the Liberty on the back of a five-match losing streak.

Andros Townsend

Andros Townsend (5.8) was largely isolated during his debut for Newcastle United in a 3-0 loss to Everton, mustering just 59 touches by virtue of the Toffees’ territorial dominance. However, with West Bromwich Albion – a team that averages the lowest percentage of possession (39.3%) throughout the season – next on the Magpies’ agenda, the former Tottenham Hotspur winger should be afforded greater license to express himself this weekend.

The fact that Newcastle are playing host to the Baggies – who have managed just two clean sheets in 14 outings and are without Jonny Evans – is extremely pertinent, given that they’ve chalked up more than three times as many goals in home matches (19) than road fixtures (six). Indeed, the Tynesiders tasted defeat in just one of their last five match-ups at St James’ Park.

Newcastle’s blank at Goodison Park doesn’t do justice to their underlying stats over the last four Gameweeks – McClaren’s men ranked joint-fourth for attempts (55), fourth for shots inside the box (36) and second for shots on target (21). Given that Townsend’s has averaged an effort every 34.8 minutes this term, his eye for goal could prove decisive as the Magpies attempt to climb out of the bottom three.