Frisking the Fixtures – The Weak

After breaking down the teams with the most favourable upcoming schedules yesterday, we now focus on those sides who perhaps look best avoided over the coming weeks. Swansea, Stoke and Sunderland all have no double Gameweeks in the next four, while all three clubs also face a tough fixture in Gameweek 35.

Swansea

According to our Season Ticker, the Swans only have one favourable fixture left this season, when they travel to Newcastle in Gameweek 34. Given they also don’t face a double Gameweek, there is clearly little appeal in holding onto our Swansea assets. Defensively, clean sheets appear unlikely against Man City and Chelsea, the two teams that have registered the most number of shots from inside the box over the last four matches, while Liverpool also have to be backed to find the back of the net at the Liberty in Gameweek 36, given they have scored eight times in their last four matches, and created eight big chances over the same period. With just one shut-out on their travels this season, trips to Leicester and West Ham also look unlikely to yield clean sheets, so those still clinging onto Ashley Williams (5.0) or any member of the Swans’ backline should really be looking to find replacements.

It’s much the same when assessing the prospects of Swansea attackers, with only the Newcastle (eight goals conceded in four) fixture looking a decent match-up. Leicester have kept four consecutive clean sheets, while Man City have only conceded one goal in their last four matches. The Liverpool, West Ham and, to a lesser extent Chelsea matches could bring a goal or two, but the likes of Gylfi Sigurdsson (7.3) really look dispensable at this point, with our focus clearly on those players who face double Gameweeks over the coming period.

Stoke

As well as not having a double Gameweek to feast on, the Potters also face three very tough match-ups in the short-term, with Tottenham and Man City both very strong defensively, allowing the fewest number of shots from inside the box over the last four matches among all 20 sides. A trip to Anfield will also be a testing clash for the Stoke attack, so while their run-in (SUN, cpl, WHM) is fairly reasonable, by then we will be focusing on loading up on players who face a double in Gameweek 37. So Marko Arnautovic (6.6) should see his 17.8% ownership in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) dwindle over the coming weeks, while all Potters attackers looked best ignored for the time being.

Liverpool, Tottenham and Man City are all among the highest scoring sides over the last four matches, registering eight goals each. Clean sheets look unlikely for the Stoke backline, then, particularly in the absence of the injured Jack Butland. The Sunderland and Crystal Palace match-ups further down the line may also be tricky if those teams are still fighting to stave off relegation by then, while West Ham also offer up another tough opponent on the final day of the season. No Stoke defender currently has an ownership of more than 4% in FPL, and that will certainly remain the case through the remainder of the campaign.

Sunderland

Although Leicester have only scored four goals in as many matches, the Foxes still have to be fancied to find the back of the net on Sunday given their current form. Defensive returns also appear unlikely against Arsenal in Gameweek 35, with the Gunners ranked fourth for shots from inside the box over the last four matches. The trip to Stoke could be similarly tricky, given Mark Hughes’ men have created 10 big chances in their last four matches, ranking them joint-first along with Tottenham and Everton. Defensive returns seem hard to come by in the short-term, then, leaving only the attacking upside of Patrick van Aanholt (4.7) as the one positive in owning any member of the Black Cats’ backline. Ideally, we can hold out until Gameweek 37 to invest in the Dutchman, with the double (CHE/EVE) followed by a decent trip to Watford on the final day of the season.

With Norwich defending well over the last four matches, conceding just three goals and allowing only one big chance, all three of Sunderland’s next matches look difficult match-ups from an attacking perspective, with Leicester and Arsenal among the strongest defences in the league. Even the fixtures in DGW37 (CHE & EVE) aren’t overly favourable, with Chelsea keeping clean sheets in five of their last seven matches on the road. The Everton fixture is slightly more promising, with the Toffees conceding seven goals and allowing seven big chances over the last four matches, while the final day trip to Vicarage Road is pretty favourable, with the Hornets, along with Aston Villa, allowing the most big chances (11) over the last four matches. Investment in Jermain Defoe (5.2) is likely to be on hold until the final weeks of the season then, with Wahbi Khazri (5.8) perhaps another who could be worthy of some consideration for double Gameweek 37.

Be Wary Of…

Man United
While United’s double Gameweek 34 (AVL & CPL) is hugely favourable in terms of both defensive and attacking prospects, the fact they face a tough trip to Tottenham on Sunday, a blank in Gameweek 35 and a difficult match-up against Leicester in Gameweek 36 leaves us with some tricky decisions to make. Perhaps limiting ourselves to just one or two United players for Gameweek 34 may be the way to go, allowing us to manoeuvre our way through the blanks in Gameweek 35, with the chance to then re-load ahead of double Gameweek 37 (nor & whm), before a plum home fixture on the final day against Bournemouth.

The likes of David de Gea (5.8), Chris Smalling (6.5) or Anthony Martial (7.6), all likely to play both matches, may represent the best way of gaining full advantage from Gameweek 34 before either benching or selling to get 11 players with a fixture out for Gameweek 35.

West Brom
Tony Pulis’ side may have a double in Gameweek 34 (WAT & ars), but given they face four of the top five over the next four Gameweeks, it’s hard to see Baggies Fantasy assets providing much value over the coming period.

Craig Dawson (5.1) may be worth persevering with for those who don’t have their wildcard to play, with a clean sheet perhaps a decent possibility against Watford, while he always offers a goal threat from set-pieces. Looking further forward, it’s unlikely either Salomon Rondon (6.4) or Saido Berahino (5.8) will come anywhere near to making the cut for our three-man frontlines.

Norwich
The Canaries are the only side to face just three matches over the next four Gameweeks (cpl, SUN, blank, ars), with one of those fixtures a difficult trip to Arsenal in Gameweek 36. So while Timm Klose (4.2) has been in fantastic form of late, there is certainly little point bringing in the Swiss defender at this juncture.

Norwich attackers have held little Fantasy appeal throughout the season, and while they may come onto our radars for their double in Gameweek 37 (MUN & WAT), particularly if they are still in the relegation dogfight, they continue to hold no appeal in the short-term.