Scout Notes – Matchday 3 – Day 3

Croatia beat Spain in a thriller and Turkey took their chances to consign the Czech Republic to bottom spot in Group D. Group C was rather less lively, the Germans profligate but victorious against Northern Ireland and Poland doing just enough to see off sorry Ukraine.

Here’s how the Round of 16 began to take shape.

Northern Ireland 0 Germany 1

Germany showed England how to break down a packed defence – but only just – as Northern Ireland battled and kept their hopes of qualification for the Round of 16 alive.

The parallels with the Slovakia match were there for all to see, not least in the shot count – 28-2 in Germany’s favour – and the pressure told when Mario Gomez (8.0) steered home from a Thomas Muller (10.5) assist.

A tournament-high nine saves from Michael McGovern (4.5) kept both the scoreline and, crucially, Northern Ireland’s goal difference respectable, while Oliver Norwood (5.5) epitomised their fighting spirit with four successful tackles and as many interceptions.

Joachim Lowe’s decision to use Gomez as the focal point of the German attack worked well. The big striker had five shots, four of which were on target, but Muller yet again failed to break his European Championship goal duck – the Bayern Munich attacker had a match-high six attempts, two of which hit the woodwork, and he also put in five crosses and created three chances.

Mesut Ozil (8.5) was the stand-out midfield performer, creating six chances, providing seven crosses and firing in four attempts.

Low’s other major decision involved resting right-back Benedikt Howedes (5.0), with Joshua Kimmich (5.0) given his tournament debut. The latter grabbed his chance with an eye-catching display involving nine crosses, four chances created and two attempts on goal.

To put that into context, Howedes managed five crosses and one key pass in his first two matches. Whether Kimmich keeps his place – and he certainly provides much more threat down the right – could be a moot point for Fantasy managers as he is classed as a midfielder in the Uefa game.

Northern Ireland, courtesy of their keeper, are now confirmed as knock-out qualifiers, but their players, while cheap, offer little beyond good value fifth defenders in the official Uefa game and only limited appeal in DraftKings.

Poland 1 Ukraine 0

Jakub Blaszczykowski (7.5) came off the bench to score the winner that booked Poland a Round of 16 tie with Switzerland.

It was a big call by manager Adam Nawalka to bench the midfielder, who has now been involved in four of his country’s five European Championship goals, scoring two and assisting a couple.

The big worry remains the wretched form of Robert Lewandowski (11.5). The Bayern Munich man had been starved of service in the first pair of matches, reduced to just two attempts. He doubled that figure against Ukraine but one of those involved the miss of the match, firing over unmarked from eight yards out.

Poland’s strength at this tournament has come at the back, much like their next opponents, and 11.5 is a huge price tag for a struggling striker in a team creating minimal chances.

Against Ukraine, Poland managed nine attempts to their rivals’ 19, and the four players leading the shots table were all Ukrainians.

The one creative bright spark for Poland was striker Arkadiusz Milik (7.5). An assist was one of three chances created – a match-high figure – and he also put in two crosses and had two attempts. At that price, he offers so much more than Lewandowski.

Ukraine have had a truly awful Euros, with no points and no goals. They dominated for long periods against the Poles and again left with nothing.

That is a telling indicator of how poor Poland have been thus far. Their defence, like the Germans, is yet to be breached, and against an equally underwhelming Swiss outfit that could remain the case through to the quarter-finals.

Investing in defenders looks sound, and Blaszczykowski and Milik are in form, but it will take a brave Fantasy manager to look further than the short term with the limited threat Poland have to offer.

Spain 1 Croatia 2

Croatia went toe-to-toe with Spain and emerged the winners in Euro 2016’s best match to date.

After their meltdown against the Czechs, Ante Cacic’s side knew they needed at least a point to make tournament life simpler, and they had to do it without Luka Modric.

By the end of a high quality encounter they had won Group D, had stayed with the Spanish for attempts (13-15) and surpassed them for shots on target – all done on just a fraction over 31% of possession.

Lesser sides would have crumbled when Alvaro Morata (8.5) poked home following a great run from Cesc Fabregas (7.0) and Spain, like many a team in this tournament, had ample chances to underscore their superiority and promptly failed to do so.

Croatia carried a consistent attacking threat of their own, however, and the match turned on a Sergio Ramos (6.5) penalty that shouldn’t have been awarded and was then saved by Danijel Subasic (5.0) anyway.

The suitably energised Croatians, level just before half-time when Nikola Kalinic (6.5) cutely flicked home an Ivan Perisic (7.5) cross, sensed blood and Kalinic turned provider for Perisic to finish one of a number of high-speed breaks with a shot that deflected just enough to beat David de Gea (5.5) at his near post.

Perisic, selected by just 5% of Uefa game managers, was the pick of a dazzling Croatian midfield. He topped the charts (with Ramos, of all people) for attempts (four), won two tackles and delivered a couple of crosses to go with his goal and assist.

Kalinic, in for the injured Mario Mandzukic (8.0), staked a claim for another start by offering mobility and end product up front. If he keeps his place, 6.5 is a lot of value in a team so strong.

The Croats ran at Spain all night, completing 13 successful dribbles to their opponents’ two, and the Spanish defence – and De Gea – looked vulnerable throughout.

Spain still offered a huge amount going forward, though, with David Silva (10.0) producing a match-high four chances and eight crosses as well as three attempts.

The upshot of Croatia’s victory is that they go into a far less daunting side of the draw for the knock-out stages, while Spain have to face Italy next.
Vicente del Bosque’s players come at a cost. They now also come at a risk.

Czech Republic 0 Turkey 2

Turkey finally turned up for Euro 2016, although their win over the Czechs might not be good enough to earn them one of the third-place qualifying slots.

It was a match of missed chances for the losers and ruthlessness from the winners – two shots on target, two goals.

The first came early from Burak Yilmaz (8.0), with a smart finish from Emre Mor’s (5.0) cross and Ozan Tufan (6.5) doubled their advantage in the second half from a Mehmet Topal (5.0) assist.

The Czechs hit the post and forced Volkan Babacan (5.0) into five saves, but theirs has been a tough Euros, beaten late by Spain and enlivened only by a mad half-hour against Croatia.

With just three points and negative goal difference, the Turks now face an anxious wait to see if they progress as one of the best third-placed sides.