Scout Report – Danilo

Manchester City followed up their acquisition of Kyle Walker by further strengthening their options at right-back with the signing of versatile Real Madrid defender Danilo for a reported fee of £26.5 million.

The 26-year-old agreed a five-year deal at the Etihad and, according to City Director of Football Txiki Begiristain, will prove to be a valuable acquisition due to his ability to play in a number of different positions:

“Danilo is a fine player who offers great versatility to our squad. He can operate in several different roles in both defence and midfield, increasing Pep’s options ahead of the new season. We feel he has all the attributes needed to succeed at City and we look forward to helping him develop during his time here.”

The History

Danilo started out at América Futebol Clube in his native Brazil at the age of 12 and went on to make his professional debut for the club in 2010.

Later that year, he moved to Santos and was part of the side that won the Copa Libertadores in 2011.

He made 65 appearances for Santos in all competitions, registering 10 goals and four assists, before joining Porto in January 2012.

During his three-and-a-half year spell in Portugal, Danilo featured 137 times in all competitions, racking up 12 goals and 15 assists playing almost exclusively at right-back, with only the occasional outing at left-back.

His impressive form during the 2014/15 season led to a move to Real Madrid at the end of that campaign.

The Brazilian made 23 league starts during his first season in Spain, producing two goals and five assists, but that figure dropped to 17 starts last term, yielding just one goal and two assists.

Danilo represented Brazil at U20 and U23 levels before making his senior debut against Argentina in September 2011.

He has appeared 15 times for his country, registering two assists, although he has recently been out of favour.

The Prospects

After releasing both Pablo Zabaleta and Bacary Sagna, City should be far stronger in the right-back position this season following the arrivals of Walker and Danilo.

Monaco defender Benjamin Mendy has also signed in the last 24 hours and is expected to be the first-choice left-back, with Danilo also providing cover in that area following the summer departures of Gael Clichy and Aleksandar Kolarov.

Fernandinho also offers another alternative in either full-back position and started at left-back in the 2-0 friendly defeat to Manchester United last week.

Danilo has only played 11 matches in his career at left-back, though, with even less playing time as a defensive midfielder. But given Guardiola’s flexible tactical approach, we should not discount Danilo being used in this role.

Standing six foot tall, Danilo’s natural athleticism and physical attributes are perfectly suited to that of a modern day full-back, while he has also the technical characteristics that should fit well in a Guardiola side.

The Brazilian international is comfortable in possession, with his time playing in midfield making him appear ideally suited to the inverted full-back role that Guardiola has introduced in recent seasons.

While those strengths weren’t particularly required at Real Madrid, where full-backs Marcelo and Dani Carvajal like to operate close to the touchline, he perhaps looks to be a better fit at the Etihad than Walker, who is more in the Carvajal mold.

Looking at Danilo’s underlying statistics from last season, he averaged a key pass every 82.67 minutes, which lagged behind Walker (76.62).

He did have a slight edge in terms of goal threat though, producing a shot every 135.27 minutes last term, slightly better than Walker’s 144.72.

The defensive numbers also suggest there is very little to choose between the pair.

Walker boasted a successful tackle rate of 80% last season, edging Danilo (79.7%), while the former Real Madrid defender averaged a clearance, block or interception (CBI) every 17.10 minutes, slightly superior to Walker (19.45).

There looks little to choose between the two players, then, and given Guardiola’s fondness for rotation, there is an obvious concern as to whether either player will be a viable Fantasy asset.

The fact that Walker knows the Premier League should give him an advantage early on, but once the UEFA Champions League group stage begins in September, the likelihood of rotation appears high.

Walker is priced at 6.5 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), with Danilo likely to command a similar price tag. But there is a chance he may come in at a slightly cheaper 6.0, given that he isn’t expected to be the first-choice.

City’s schedule over the opening six Gameweeks (bha, EVE, bou, LIV, wat, CPL) is pretty kind, and providing captain Vincent Kompany is fully fit, there are opportunities for clean sheets which should reap defensive points.

Guardiola’s side kept four in the final eight matches when Kompany was back in the starting XI, and with no central defenders brought in so far this summer, the Belgian’s fitness will again be critical to City’s resilience.

So while Walker and Danilo offer the potential to deliver points at both ends of the pitch, the threat of rotation at full-back could drive Fantasy managers to look elsewhere.

Kompany, meanwhile, is kindly priced at 6.0, and provides both a strong set-piece threat and decent bonus point potential (he averaged a CBI every 13.49 minutes last term).

The signing of Danilo is set to dent Walker’s Fantasy appeal, then, although the England international is currently the fifth most popular defender in FPL, sitting in 18.7% of squads.

City’s backline won’t be seen as a priority with initial squads and the concerns over rotation only provide another barrier to investment.

Premium options from Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United appear safer bets at this point, with the attacking upside of either Walker or Danilo hindered by the uncertainty surrounding their pitch time.

Further Reference

Danilo Wikipedia

Danilo Transfer Markt Page

Danilo You Tube Highlights