The Season After – Ten Weeks In

Fantasy Premier League’s reigning champion, Ben Crabtree, is finding his title defence…problematic.

But after a disastrous start, recovery is in the air, although it’s a slow and often painful process.

In the second of a series of articles from the champion, Ben details where it’s gone wrong and how he’s attempting to put it right.

Back to basics

After Gameweek 4, I was just inside the top three million.

Even though it was early in the season, it felt like all credibility gained last year had disappeared.

The outlandish ambition of back-to-back wins was well and truly over, so the plan was to hit a few good scores, get back on track, sneak up the rankings, win a few mini-leagues and achieve a respectable ‘season after’ finish.

To some extent, that happened up to Gameweek 7 when an Alvaro Morata hat-trick helped me to a 130,000 Gameweek rank, which was followed by a correct Harry Kane captaincy call to put me up to 1.6 million overall.

My next move was to use two free transfers and one hit to swap Christian Eriksen, Jese and Marcos Alonso to Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sane and a defender, with Nicolas Otamendi a consideration.

I had planned it all, and it paid off massively…..for those that did it.

The Morata injury threw me, and I somehow ended up with Eden Hazard and Dominic Calvert-Lewin in my team, while omitting City players altogether.

I’d been three transfers away from how I wanted my team to be, only to move another two transfers in the wrong direction.

The City demolition hurt and, after bringing in Sterling for a blank while Sane continued to pound big scores, I’d fallen back to thinking about the previous Gameweeks rather than the upcoming ones.

Now placde just inside 1.6 million, things have improved. But there’s still much to be done.

From the distant memory of last season, the method for success in this game can be simplified into two rather obvious decisions: pick good captains and make good transfers.

My Captains

For Gameweeks 5 to 10, I made the following captaincy choices:

Each Gameweek, I’ve had the option of a great captain pick but only made the right, or a high-scoring, choice twice out of six.

In a Gameweek with no obvious captains, Sead Kolasinac could have even been chosen this week – similar situation last season had me captaining Leighton Baines for 15 points. Attacking defenders should be considered for the few occasions when the big-hitting attackers look unlikely to produce.

Forty seven extra points were achievable across those six Gameweeks just from picking the correct captain alone. I need to be closer to the maximum over the next five.

For the upcoming Gameweeks my plan for the armband currently looks like this:

The faith in Kane, who appears to have made a full recovery from his hamstring injury, is obvious. For the Palace clash, he may have a relatively low ownership given that he’s dropped under 30%.

I’ll always be worried about captaining Sergio Aguero, but the potential is huge. Already with a 20-point tally under his belt, in this City team, we can surely expect further big hauls to come.

This could change should Romelu Lukaku come in to my team for his favourable fixtures.

My Transfers

For GW5 – 10 my transfers have been:

I looked at the immediate gains and then compared them to the overall points per Gameweek that they provided when in my team. I feel that this gives me a clear indication of whether a transfer has been worthwhile or not.

As a result, there has been very little immediate success, but I’m hoping Kolasinac, Morata, Aguero, Sterling and Stephen Ward are good picks that will pay off over time.

Kolasinac’s 14 points may have convinced me to stick with him through the next two tricky fixtures where before I was looking at alternatives.

For upcoming fixtures, assuming I keep three big forwards, my transfers are likely to be based around swapping defenders as they come to the end of their shelf life. I’ll also be tweaking the midfield.

The returns from Ruben Loftus-Cheek as a fourth midfielder will play a key part in whether to switch money from defence to midfield.

My Targets

Currently, I’m looking at the following players:

Defenders

Charlie Daniels (4.9) – With six strong fixtures in a row, he finally looks poised for a run of clean sheets and possibly further attacking returns.

DeAndre Yedlin (4.4) – The full-back is cheap and could be a long-term defender to rotate. Has been getting stronger Bonus Points System (BPS) scores than Jamaal Lascelles of late.

Jamaal Lascelles (4.7) – The Magpies skipper is possibly a touch too expensive, and this would also give me a double with the Newcastle defence (I already have Rob Elliot). However, the goal threat on the end of set-plays is tempting.

Federico Fernandez (4.5) – He has some kind fixtures and is favoured in the BPS in a clean sheet scenario. However, he would require a rotation partner.

Nicolas Otamendi (5.9) – The City defender doesn’t allow for money to be moved into midfield, but the clean sheet and goal potential is obvious.

Kyle Walker (6.6) – I prefer the right-back to Otamendi, but he comes at a premium. Maybe 0.7m extra is too much, but he might just finish on around 170 – 180 points if he can avoid rotation. Four assists in nine games screams of further big hauls to come.

Chris Smalling (5.3) – If he plays, he’s another bargain defender with Jones. I bought Jones for 5.0, so 10.3 invested could return 12+ points regularly. He seems unlikely to retain his start, but I’m monitoring the situation.

Kevin Wimmer (4.4) – Although Stoke City have been abysmal at the back, they may be due their familiar cyclical run of form where they suddenly become hard to beat – particularly with Ryan Shawcross now fit. Keenly priced, Wimmer is another to consider if he can secure his start.

Midfielders

Leroy Sane (8.7) – Not signing Sane to this point is my major regret. I will possibly leave him for another Gameweek, with Christian Eriksen hosting Palace, plus I already have Sterling and want to avoid a transfer hit.

Wilfried Zaha (6.9) – For Gameweek 13, he looks to be an option that I need to plan for. Particularly with Christian Benteke’s return some weeks away.

Aaron Ramsey (7.0) – The same applies to the Arsenal man, who, like Zaha, is hinting at outstanding value in midfield.

Eden Hazard (10.6) – I’ve chosen Morata over him for now, but his form in a potential No 10 role demands monitoring.

Pascal Gross (5.8) – He has become annoyingly consistent and has made me regret that I doubted his ability to return in a shot-shy Brighton side.

Ademola Lookman (5.2) – As an Everton fan, I really like Lookman and can’t believe how little he’s featured so far. If he starts a game and does well, he will become an astute cut-price signing.

Forwards
Romelu Lukaku (11.6) – At some point, he is going to have to come back in. It’s just a question of for who and when.

I’ve currently got a few options open, but none of them excite without taking hits. So I’ll probably hold the transfer this week, monitoring the players above to see who emerges as the most urgent.

All in all, the first ten Gameweeks have been my worst run of form since the Luis Suarez 2013/14 season.

Maybe I should have quit, left on a high and then I wouldn’t have found myself glued expectantly to Burnley versus Newcastle on Monday night.

But football isn’t as good without FPL, so I’ll just have to keep battling through each Gameweek. With so many options this season, there’s still plenty of potential for big swings in either direction. I just need to hope the next falls in my favour.

A few simple tweaks can make all the difference. For Gameweek 11, captaining Kane or Aguero and banking my transfer is going back to basics.

Hopefully it pays off.