Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 24 – The Strong

There’s much talk of template teams forming, so perhaps the upcoming fixtures can help guide us towards those players with the potential to break from the norm.

But this is a period of upheaval in the fixture list. Gameweek 24 marks another six-match spell where the split between home and away fixtures is uneven.

There are teams that enjoy four home matches over the next six Gameweeks – and therefore six over the next ten – with the obvious flipside being that other teams suffer the reverse.

In addition, the Premier League programme is broken up by domestic and European cup competition, which in some cases prompts us to plan for possible postponements and blank Gameweeks.

Firstly, we have to consider the ten-day break between the Fantasy Premier League deadlines for Gameweeks 24 and 25.

After this weekend, teams will go into fourth round FA Cup ties before facing a Premier League fixture, though three sides will play Carabao Cup semi-finals first – more on that in a bit.

The majority will have just two free days to recover from FA Cup action before Gameweek 25, though Manchester United, with their tie against Yeovil on the Friday, are granted four days between their two matches.

However, five teams – Burnley, Crystal Palace, Arsenal, Stoke and Everton – will gain an extra break before Gameweek 25 having suffered third round defeats. Meanwhile, Swansea, Bournemouth and Chelsea could also rest up should they lose tonight’s replays.

Then there is European football to consider.

This returns from the week of February 13, with first leg ties of the knockout stages.

For Liverpool, Spurs and Man City, this falls just a few days after Gameweek 27, raising rotation concerns for that round of fixtures, although the FA Cup fifth round then follows, with a growing number of teams gaining a break before Gameweek 28.

However, both Manchester United and Chelsea’s European first legs occur a week later, in the midweek prior to Gameweek 28.

Indeed, that Gameweek brings its own concerns as it serves up a potential blank for both Man United and Chelsea, as well as Manchester City and Arsenal.

Man City face Bristol City, while Arsenal host Chelsea in their second leg Carabao Cup semi-final ties immediately after this weekend. Should Pep Guardiola’s men progress, their fixture with Arsenal in Gameweek 28 will be postponed.

Meanwhile, if Chelsea better the Gunners in the other semi-final, the Blues clash with Manchester United could also move.

There is, however, a possibility that these fixtures will remain in the Gameweek, with the midweek dates available for rescheduling saving us from the potential blank.

For further information on the blank and double Gameweek scenario, we recommend Ben Crellin’s Twitter thread and Google docs that offer updates on the current fixture landscape.

With that situation summarised, here is our analysis of those sides gifted favourable runs of opponents through this turbulent spell.

West Ham United

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The Prospects – Goals
The Hammers remain in our plans long after Double Gameweek 22, with a schedule that goes on delivering kind match-ups.

David Moyes’ side have scored an impressive ten goals over the last four Gameweeks and face a line of opponents to maintain that form.

Bournemouth are the visitors to the London Stadium on Saturday and arrive having conceded nine goals in their last four away matches.

Crystal Palace then pay visit in Gameweek 25, in what looks a trickier match-up given that the Eagles are at the other end of the scale, claiming three clean sheets and conceding just three goals over their previous six away trips.

The home meeting with Watford in Gameweek 27 appears more favourable – the Hornets are without a clean sheet in their last 10 matches, with seven goals shipped in their previous four away days.

West Ham’s away days also have some promise, though the Gameweek 28 trip to Anfield provides a major test given the Reds’ formidable defensive record at Anfield.

A visit to Brighton & Hove Albion follows in Gameweek 26 and, while the Seagulls have been solid at the Amex Stadium at times, seven goals conceded in their last four home matches indicates that the Hamers could still have some joy.

The six-match run concludes with a trip to Swansea City. That currently looks appealing as only Stoke City (10) have conceded more goals than the Welsh outfit (nine) over the last four matches.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
West Ham are now without a clean sheet in their last five, denting our confidence in their defensive assets despite the reasonable schedule.

In the home matches, both Bournemouth and Palace will pose some problems.

The Cherries have scored at least two goals in each of their last four encounters and, over the last four away matches, they rank third for shots on target with 21.

Meanwhile, Roy Hodgson’s side have netted six goals in their last three road trips and scored at least once in seven of their last eight matches.

Watford’s away record was strong, but they’ve faltered badly of late, indicating that the London Stadium tie in Gameweek 27 could reap returns. The Hornets have scored just two goals from their last four away trips.

On the road, the trips to Brighton and Swansea are clearly the standout ties for defensive returns. The Seagulls have failed to score in six of their last eight matches, while no team has scored fewer goals than the Swans (14).

But again, the Anfield visit appears to offer little reward for Moyes’ men.

The Turning Point
The schedule begins to turn against the Hammers from Gameweek 31, starting with a home clash against Manchester United. They then face three more top six sides over the following five Gameweeks.

The Verdict
Given the opponents ahead, the emphasis is now switching to West Ham’s attack.

Playing as a lone striker, Marko Arnautovic is the main target, while Manuel Lanzini provides a potential midfield partner.

Those who swooped for Arthur Masuaku and Angelo Ogbonna for Gameweek 22 will be more than happy to hold over this spell. But Adrian is likely to be the more profitable, with save points boosting the goalkeeper’s returns when the defence is breached.

Liverpool

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The Prospects – Goals
Philippe Coutinho’s absence caused few issues in Sunday’s victory over Manchester City, though bizarrely, Jurgen Klopp’s attack may face more stubborn opponents in the weeks to come – particularly with three away trips in four.

The upcoming visits to Swansea and Huddersfield both appear very promising, but Liverpool are likely to face deep-lying defences with David Wagner, in particular, well versed on how to cope with Klopp’s pressing game.

Swansea shipped five goals when the two teams met at Anfield back in Gameweek 20, while the Terriers have conceded seven goals in their last two encounters. Liverpool will surely be backed for wins and goals, though their ability to pick open a rearguard effort will be tested without Coutinho’s guile.

If anything, the visit to St Mary’s to face Southampton could be the most profitable of their three away days.

The Saints are among four sides who are joint-first for the most big chances conceded over the last four Gameweeks, with 11. Mauricio Pellegrino’s side have kept just two clean sheets on home turf all season, failing to claim a single shut-out in their last six on the south coast.

An Anfield meeting with Spurs provides a far stiffer test in Gameweek 26 – they’ve kept five clean sheets on their travels so far, a tally bettered only by Man City.

Further home fixtures against West Ham and Newcastle United in Gameweeks 28 and 29 conclude this spell and look favourable enough.

Both have kept just one clean sheet from their last six away trips, conceding 11 and 12 goals respectively.

But Liverpool will likely have to break down a deep-lying rearguard action in both cases and, again, that is where Coutinho’s creativity could be missed.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Gameweek 24 and 25 opponents Swansea and Huddersfield have both struggled for goals of late, so despite Liverpool’s defensive struggles on the road, there is promise of defensive returns in the short-term.

Indeed, Liverpool’s next three away trips all offer the potential for clean sheets. Southampton – in Gameweek 26 –  have notched just four from their last four St Mary’s outings.

Again, the home tie with Spurs provides the major test, while West Ham’s visit to Anfield could also pose some questions. David Moyes’ attack have scored 11 goals in their last four road trips, with Arnautovic and Lanzini proving very effective.

The Turning Point
Facing only three of the current top eight between now and the end of the season, there is no sustained period of testing fixtures ahead of Klopp’s men.

The Verdict
The fixture list is clearly Liverpool’s friend, with the management of Klopp’s squad around cup matches their only real concern.

However, that could be significant for Fantasy managers with the Gameweek 27 trip to Southampton – which arrives three days before the Champions League first-leg tie in Porto – a major hot spot for rotation.

The Reds are also still in the FA Cup and face a trip to West Brom on Saturday week. That could cause knock-ons for the Gameweek 25 trip to Huddersfield three days later.

There’s no question that Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino remain the obvious picks from their attack, while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain could yet emerge as a cut-price option if he retains a starting role when under threat from a fully-fit Adam Lallana.

Virgil van Dijk is our preferred option at the back – he is expected to be back to face Swansea this weekend – while Andrew Robertson could be a target if he sees off the challenge of the returning Alberto Moreno. Rotation between that pair around the cup competitions could be key to that decision.

Leicester City

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The Prospects – Goals
Leicester City’s superb run of four home opponents over the next six Gameweeks make them prime targets for investment, particularly given their apparent progress under Claude Puel.

Their goal threat has not been outstanding at the King Power Stadium – just six goals from their last four is hardly earth-shattering.

But the quality of the defences heading their way certainly provides huge encouragement. Based on the last six matches, Watford, Swansea, Stoke and Bournemouth form four of the top five teams for big chances conceded.

Even more significantly, only four teams are without a single clean sheet over the last six matches – and it’s those same four teams due to visit Leicester City next.

Inevitably, the away trips at Everton and Manchester City will be far more testing for Puel’s attack.

However, the Toffees have been charitable of late, and Leicester’s counter-attacking style will be suited to hurt both defences. It’s also worth noting that the Foxes go to the Etihad just three days before Pep Guardiola’s men face FC Basel in the Champions League, which could mean rotation in the home defence.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Back-to-back clean sheets has renewed our confidence in Puel’s rearguard, and those home fixtures can certainly prove profitable for clean sheet returns.

None of their next four home opponents has averaged more than a goal a game over their previous four away trips, with Stoke scoring just once, Watford twice.

The two away fixtures will be far more testing, particularly with Everton having recruited in attack.

But, as mentioned, Man City may look to rotate prior to their European tie and that could give the Foxes defence an opportunity.,

The Turning Point
Like Liverpool, there is no real stage of the season where Leicester will face a chain of testing fixtures. The trip to City, along with a Gameweek 31 home tie with Arsenal, are their only match-ups with a “top six” opponent until a trip to Spurs on the final day.

The Verdict
There is no question that Leicester’s next four home fixtures are almost freakish and urge investment in the attack.

Riyad Mahrez surely remains the key target. His outstanding form has brought returns in eight of the last ten Gameweeks, although Marc Albrighton offers a viable cut-price alternative in midfield – he has three assists and a goal from his last five outings.

Jamie Vardy can shine as a forward option, but having excelled mainly against the top six sides – struggling when faced with a deep-lying defence – there is real concern that he may fail to capitalise on the home fixtures.

There is increased interest in their defence, with the added attacking threat of Harry Maguire making him the key target. Ben Chilwell looks to have claimed the left-back berth over Christian Fuchs to provide a cheap enabler, while Kasper Schmeichel is certainly a viable option in goal over this period.

Also Consider

Manchester City
The short-term schedule is simply outstanding, with Newcastle and West Brom the next two to visit the Etihad Stadium.

But those teams will come equipped with stubborn defences, ready to test the resolve and confidence of Guardiola’s men after their Anfield defeat. Victories and goals will still be expected, clean sheets also look almost guaranteed.

That makes Sergio Aguero investible in the short-term, with Gabriel Jesus perhaps poised to return following those two fixtures.

The trip to Burnley and the visit from Leicester will be more testing, particularly with the Foxes clash preceding their first leg tie with Basel. Gameweek 27 is clearly a major rotation hotspot, then.

Back-to-back tests with Arsenal and Chelsea could then follow, though it could be that City face a blank in Gameweek 28 prior to the visit from the Blues.

Chelsea
Again, the short-term schedule on show is undeniably strong.

While Antonio Conte’s side are faltering, they will still be expected to claim four wins from matches with Brighton (a), Bournemouth (h), Watford (a) and West Brom (h). However, they are then afforded an extra week before hosting Barcelona after that final fixture in Gameweek 27, which may well limit the degree of rotation.

And with Eden Hazard and Alvaro Morata mustering just two goals and an assist between them since Gameweek 16, the current evacuation from the Chelsea attack is understandable. An instant return to form at the Amex Stadium on Saturday could yet see that trend reversed, though that threat of rotation has to be a consideration.

There are few concerns about the Blues defence, however. With five clean sheets in six Gameweeks, there is clear incentive to stick by Conte’s backline. But again, the West Brom fixture could prove problematic in terms of secure starters.

Stoke City
New Potters boss Paul Lambert couldn’t have asked for a much better start to life at the bet365 Stadium, with three great home fixtures (HUD WAT BHA) over the next four Gameweeks.

The away ties (bou lei sot) are also reasonable, so Stoke’s mid-price and budget assets could yet prove a source of value.

Xherdan Shaqiri stands out as the go-to option in attack, while Jack Butland and perhaps new arrival Moritz Bauer could prove options in defence.

We should also consider that Stoke are the only team to have guaranteed fixtures in both Gameweek 31 and 35. FA Cup quarter finals will cause postponements, but Like Stoke, both their Premier League opponents in those Gameweeks – Everton and Burnley – are also out of the FA Cup.

Everton
The Toffees are another side who play three of their next four (WBA LEI ars CRY) in front of their own fans, while the fixture list remains favourable right up to Gameweek 31.

Sam Allardyce has admitted the focus will be to tighten things up defensively after shipping four goals against Spurs at Wembley Stadium, so goalkeeper Jordan Pickford could, and should, fetch returns over this period.

Jonjoe Kenny could also remain a cut-price option, though his starting role is in question after the Spurs display and with Seamus Coleman edging back to fitness.

Further forward, new signing Cenk Tosun already looks an interesting differential option.

Meanwhile, Theo Walcott’s arrival – confirmed only today – adds a tantalising mid-price option to midfields. We will bring you a full Moving Target article on his prospects tomorrow.