Champions League Picks – Matchday 1

For anyone undecided on the Ramsey punt, I'll take you through the story of how I ended up bringing him in (for Kim). It'll be a long post, but hopefully you'll find it intriguing and perhaps surprising. I know I did, anyway.

As a Gooner I've been constantly watching our central midfield for quite a while, trying to see if a bargain would emerge. All three of our central midfielders (Ramsey, Wilshere and Rosicky) are very cheap. With our emphasis on attacking through the centre, I've always thought that if one of these hoovered up the shots, they could become a bargain. Rosicky was the one I was eyeing from GW1, with his two brilliant one-twos setting up two glorious one-on-ones. Unfortunately he can't really shoot, is very inconsistent anyway and got injured.

Ramsey, on the other hand, has a hell of a shot. He had a brilliant preseason in which he made startling improvements on his previous form. Ramsey has had a lot of stick over the last two seasons, much of it deserved, his decision making was poor and he generally lacked confidence. To be honest though, I think the truth is that it's taken this long for him to mentally recover from his horrific broken leg against Shawcross a full three years ago. He finished preseason with a stunningly taken goal against Man City and an assist, and from that point he was on my radar, though behind Rosicky.

Now this is where it gets interesting. Ramsey started the season in his usual position as a holding midfielder alongside Wilshere, no change there. What happened is that a succession of more advanced players got injured. Specifically, whoever played on our left wing would only play there for one game. I'm not kidding. Ox GW1. Podolski GW2. Caz GW3.

Check out the Arsenal lineups and average positions for GW1-4 here: http://i.imgur.com/jSA1XJw.png You'll see for the first 3 GWs, Ramsey is holding with a partner in central midfield. Shots in the box are marked as black dots - he's clearly not getting good goalscoring opportunities at 2 shots in the box over 3 games.

So, three long term injuries to three attacking players. What transfers did Wenger make before GW4 then? Everyone knows he signed Ozil. But he did something equally important in the short term and even more important for Ramsey: he signed Flamini. Flamini is a destroyer, a defensive midfielder through and through.

What this means is that Ramsey's role changed in GW4. Take a look at the rightmost picture. You can see the central midfield relationship between Ramsey and Flamini is different. Ramsey plays much further ahead of Flamini than any of his previous midfield partners. Ramsey's role has changed to become another attacker. He got 3 shots in the box, one more than in the first three GWs combined. Furthermore, Ozil replaced Cazorla but played even more central than Cazorla did. This opens up space on the left for Ramsey to attack.

If you want evidence of this, watch Ramsey's second goal where he starts in the final third, lays it off to Ozil, shoots down the left, collects Giroud's through ball and finishes. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oFgTfB1550

This brings me to my final point. Ozil here is doing something we'll be seeing a lot of: being the central playmaker and looking to play through balls for players' runs. He'll be watching players up top of course, like Giroud in front and Walcott cutting inside from the right. But they also include onrushing players from midfield running into scoring positions. Indeed, when the opposition is parking the bus, the advanced players keep defenders occupied, and midfielders run into space and overload the defence. This is exactly what happened in the clip shown.

One player renowned for scoring from deep is a certain Frank Lampard, who also plays in central midfield. While penalties infamously boost his goal tally, his calling card is the late run from midfield into a scoring position, scoring goals through anticipation rather than being the furthest forward. Let's compare Lampard against Hull with Ramsey against Sunderland. In this game, both play as the more attacking of a midfield two (Lampard sometimes is deeper in tougher games) and both get 3 shots inside the box. http://i.imgur.com/d9tHRFS.png

TL:DR? I believe long-term injuries to attacking personnel and the signing of Flamini the destroyer have caused Ramsey's role to change to an attacking one. If you made it to the end, well done. Good luck!