Having edged my way to last season’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) crown, I wanted to put together an article to illustrate how I used the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ Area to aid my campaign.
I’m hopeful that, over the course of this two-part article, I can offer guidance to those new to Fantasy Premier League (FPL) or even just those unaware of how the tools within the Members’ area function. I also hope that some of it is helpful or at least mildly interesting to the veterans and long-term members among the community and welcome any feedback.
To begin, I’d like to give some background on my season and firstly state that last term was the first I’ve been fully committed to FPL. I believe that winning it required a certain amount of dedication and I think just being able to regularly watch matches and have as much information as possible available (ostensibly having access to FFS Members’ area for the first time) was a huge help.
There is no trick or single key strategy that helps you to do well in FPL, it’s always a combination of factors. The trick is to bring all the various bits of news, information, stats, gut feeling, crazy thoughts and strategy together and bind it with a healthy slice of luck. While the initial squad selection is vital, those factors really come to play most when you start hunting for the “right transfer” during the season.
That Right Transfer
This game is all about the next transfer. Fantasy managers can easily get obsessed with how things have gone in a given Gameweek and I’ve found that this is best avoided. By all means rejoice or be angry, but don’t dwell on a weekend’s haul. Focus on the next move, forget about the last Gameweek and don’t let it influence your future thinking.
It’s a game, so enjoy it, don’t beat yourself up and despair if you make the wrong choice. Use that failure to your advantage: ask yourself why you made that fateful decision? Why didn’t you pick up on that player hitting form three weeks ago?
Finally, it’s a cliché, but anything really can happen in football: adapting your thinking and strategy is important. The methods outlined in this two-part article served me well last season, but some or all may not fare as well this time around. To have a chance of having a respectable season, I’ll likely have to adapt my thinking somewhat.
Equally, I think it’s important to avoid preconceptions of players and teams. If you want to succeed, I believe you have to assess players objectively – you may have to sign a player you dislike, while your favourite player, or one that has become a favourite, may have to be chopped.
Form vs Fixtures
It’s an age-old debate and, while I endorse the assessment of fixtures, I also have to acknowledge that form is also a decisive factor.
Although in-form players are clearly the best to have, don’t allow this to negate the fact that you have to field 11 players each week. Form is something that changes, the fixtures are a much more reliable measure (postponements aside) and are key – the season ticker can be your best friend in analysing what lies ahead.
Every player in your squad needs to have a reason to be there, to be a cog in the overall plan, especially towards the end of the campaign where the bench plays a more important role. Ensuring your squad has the best fixtures possible will have a huge influence on whether your starting XI can return you the most points per million.
In my view, the fixtures should be the first factor you look at when making the transfer but there are exceptions to the rule.
If there’s a player with incredible form who is also a big-hitter with steadily rising ownership, then it’s probably going to be worth acquiring them. Otherwise, your transfer should always be about getting the best player for your starting XI with a firm eye on the fixtures. The aim is to achieve the best possible chance for all your players to be in scenarios where they are likely to score decent points.
From the season ticker, identify two to three teams that have a strong run of opponents: these will change every Gameweek but, as a rule, I would rarely target a player if he had a tough schedule in front of him.
There’s no point in having some players enjoying great form and some with plum fixtures, if the rest of your starting XI are struggling and offering little value. I would always put my squad needs ahead of an individual’s form and fixtures: the latter should fall into place if the squad is built and managed efficiently.
The Target
Target some teams first, then look at their players; there’s likely to be only two or three options each week depending on budget and the position in your team you are replacing. Be open minded: people will always lean towards more flair/famous players, but shed any predispositions and don’t be sentimental or biased. You want the best players that suit the rules for gaining points.
Finding teams to target should be relatively clear by using the Members’ fixture ticker; you can sort all the teams by overall difficulty over any number of Gameweeks, it even allows you to use Fantasy Football Scout’s different weightings (clean sheet and attacking) depending on the position you’re recruiting for.
If you are still unsure about your target teams, have a look at the team stats section in the Members’ area. The key areas to focus on are the defending and goal threat sections for the applicable players.
Compare the goal attempts each team is creating, the goals they are conceding and the difficulty of opposition they faced. The area allows you to order teams by a different array of stats and is also useful for highlighting teams to rule out of the process.
The top sides will always rank highly in the team stats, though this is reflected in their player pricing, so, if you have a restricted budget it pays to dig a little deeper down the ranks to reveal a form side who are overachieving on our expectations.
The next step is to do your own scouting. I strongly believe that watching at least half a match in full is a better option than highlights. A full live match can reveal plenty on a particular team, their confidence and tactics. You can also see the positions that potential targets are taking up on the pitch, whether their touches are important ones, if they look tired or involved. Even 20 minutes of watching a match is often more useful as a scouting exercise than seeing just the goals and incidents.
The Projections
The Next Six Gameweek Projections are perfect for looking at players from the teams you’ve identified and assessing who is likely to have the most impact over the next six Gameweeks.
It also means you don’t miss anyone who may be cheaper or from a team that didn’t look great on the ticker. The important part here is the value column at the end of the players table, click and you’re get a view of some potential bargains.
As I’ve mentioned, for me, a transfer is about filling a gap in your squad as effectively as possible, not just going with an expensive player who might score the most points in the next six Gameweeks. There may be a cheaper option who is projected less points but is better value and could easily outscore the other: one that allows you to spend some of the money elsewhere, thus improving your squad and overall points potential.
The Comparison Tool
Compare, then compare again and repeat ad nauseum. This is made so much easier with the comparison tool in your armoury. Using this, you can directly weigh up the statistics of two players. The key stats are highlighted and compared, minimising the time it takes, usually a quick glance will tell you who is outperforming the other. If it is close, you can then combine this with your own scouting of matches; actually seeing if those shots off target were hitting the crossbar or the corner flag.
The other way to choose between two players is just to go back to the fixture ticker and Rate My Team and check which player is better for the mid to long term and represents the best value. Sometimes a player might have better stats but just won’t help the squad in terms of rotation and hitting a regular level of points.
That concludes part one of my guide. In the second part I’ll pay far more attention to using Rate My Team, explaining how I shifted my strategy for using the tool as the season progressed. I’ll also explain how I rotated my use of the Members’ area tools and give you my opinion on taking punts and points hits.
9 years, 10 months agoFabregas 😎