The Pre-Match Preamble – Gameweek 30

In case you missed it (unlikely), Chelsea presented their “Penalty Puzzle” this week, claiming that, when it comes to their propensity to win spot-kicks, logic is being defied.

The article arrived off the back of a string of ignored penalty claims and, notably, just a couple of months after Jose Mourinho was fined for claiming that referees were being influenced to give decisions against the Blues.

Maybe it’s just me, but I can’t help but be cynical about all this.

Admittedly, I love a conspiracy theory. I rarely hesitate to speculate when there is just a shred of opportunity to do so – particularly when it comes to events that could influence my Fantasy thinking.

Mourinho and Chelsea have fanned my flames this season, providing ample evidence for me to jump to wild conclusions on Diego Costa’s injury problems. I rarely need encouragement, but the recent noises stemming from Stamford Bridge have provided just that.

I can’t help but recall the events that followed Mourinho’s recent comments regarding Paris St Germain’s levels of aggression. Here Mourinho ironically singled out Zlatan Ibrahimovic when analysing PSG’s display in the first leg of their Champions League tie….

“Because a team with fantastic players was the team with a record number of fouls, was the team making foul after foul, was the team which stopped Hazard with fouls all the time, was the team attacking the man in possession of the ball with two or three players with some very aggressive actions, a team where – even a player like Zlatan [Ibrahimovic], a typical attacking player – came back when they lost the ball and attacked Hazard from behind when we were countering.”

A week later the towering Swede tracked back again, was late in his “tackle” on Oscar and triggered a reaction from Chelsea players that some described as “disgraceful”. The suggestion was that their actions were almost rehearsed – primed by Mourinho’s words just days prior to the match. More wild speculation.

The club’s decision to publish this week’s article has done little to calm claims of conspiracies.

To be fair, they talk in facts: in “28 Premier League games this season where we have been awarded just two penalties”. However, it’s perhaps careless to describe this statistic as “abnormally low”, even when historical data suggests that their current tally is below average based on previous campaigns.

Last season Arsenal were awarded just three penalties, the season before that, Spurs failed to win any. For all the statistical patterns of touches in the box versus penalties won, there are glitches in the system: random variables that serve up “abnormalties”. Chelsea’s spot-kick count could be regarded as perfectly “normal”.

So what did the article achieve? Did it even seek to “achieve” anything?

One thing is certain, it ensured that Mourinho would have the opportunity to comment on the issue in Friday’s press conference without implicating himself…

“You gave so much importance to that article. I read it, I think it is a very objective article, it is just the number, no more than that. It’s is not an opinion article that can lead to a discussion…It is not open to opinions. It is just pure numbers, the numbers always tell the truth, no agendas, no intention. I just believe that it is an article with numbers in the same way that numbers always tell the truth.”

Whatever Jose claims – statistics are often open to interpretation, and the term “abnormally low” does smack of an opinion based on these particular numbers.

So, as Chelsea make their way to the KC Stadium, the title tantalisingly within reach, the subject of penalty awards has been brought to the fore. Blown out of proportion by the press but undoubtedly fed by the words originating from the club.

Now let’s throw Michael Oliver into the mix.

As referees go, Sunday’s is a colourful character. A World Cup official in the making, Oliver is nonetheless prone to swing from the sublime to the ridiculous. He’s high profile, in a high-profile scenario: a cocktail for controversy. Oliver has already awarded eight penalties across his 20 league appearances this season – awarding two in one match on two occasions.

Does Michael Oliver go into Sunday’s cauldron oblivious to Chelsea’s “penalty puzzle”? Is he prepared to turn away spot-kick claims on Humberside?

I’ll be one of many watching on in fascination come Sunday, looking out for every stray foot and hand that swings the way of a Chelsea player, cross or shot.

Will I be backing my own speculation by handing my captaincy to Eden Hazard? I’ve certainly considered it.

Irrespective of failing to win a single spot-kick on the road, Hazard has scored in four of his last five away league matches.

As Jose says, “numbers always tell the truth” and, just like Jose, I love a conspiracy theory.