Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 26 – The Weak

Having assessed the sides with favourable schedules over the next four-to-six Gameweeks, we now turn our attentions to those with less reason to be cheerful. Arsenal brace themselves for clashes with three of the top five, whilst Villa and Norwich’s battle to beat the drop looks set to be put to the test.

Arsenal

Upcoming opponents Leicester, Man United and Tottenham rank among the strongest defences over the last four Gameweeks both in terms of big chances conceded (four, four and three respectively) and goals against (two apiece). The Foxes have allowed 31 shots from inside the box though, ranking them around mid-table among all 20 clubs, so this Sunday’s clash potentially looks the most likely of the three to yield a goal or two for the Gunners. Back-to-back clean sheets make a trip to Goodison Park look slightly tougher than it was just a couple of weeks ago, leaving only the home matches against Swansea and West Brom as reasonably favourable match-ups. Both of those teams have allowed seven big chances each in their last four matches. There certainly looks little need to double up on the Arsenal attack, then, with Fantasy Premier League (FPL) bosses likely to have to make a decision to whether to own either Mesut Ozil (9.9) or Alexis Sanchez (11.0).

The outlook looks a little easier from a defensive point of view, with Tottenham (11), Everton (10) and Leicester (nine) the highest scoring clubs over the last four Gameweeks. Those three also lead the way for big chances created, so clean sheets could be in short supply across those matches. A trip to Old Trafford will also test the Gunners rearguard, particularly if the improved attacking play seen in the last two matches can be sustained by Louis van Gaal’s side. Swansea and particularly West Brom do struggle to find the back of the net, with the Baggies scoring just once in their last four matches, and registering a mere 21 shots from inside the box over the same period, the joint-third worst record in the top flight. Those two favourable home match-ups may be enough for owners of Arsenal defenders to hold tight for the time being, but the likes of Hector Bellerin (6.1) and Laurent Koscielny (6.3) may well struggle to live up to their premium price tags over the coming weeks.

Aston Villa

Remi Garde’s side have actually been much improved at the back of late, keeping three clean sheets in their last five matches. Similar to Arsenal, they also have to face the highly potent Everton and Tottenham attacks over the next six Gameweeks, while the trip to the Etihad in Gameweek 29 has to be seen as just as difficult a task, with Man City scoring eight goals in their last four matches. Matches against Liverpool and Stoke in the short-term also appear fairly tricky, with the former finding the back of the net seven times in their last four matches, and are generally a greater attacking threat on their travels. Stoke are without a goal in their last four, but would fancy their chances of scoring at home against the basement-dwellers. Likewise, Swansea will be expected to net when Villa visit the Liberty Stadium next month in their battle against the drop, so not even Joleon Lescott’s goal scoring prowess, having netted in two of his last five outings, will likely see any Fantasy managers make a move for the centre-back with defensive returns appearing extremely unlikely.

At the other end of the pitch, matches against Liverpool, Everton, City and Tottenham all look poised to offer difficult challenges. Liverpool’s vulnerability of set-pieces aside, the Reds have allowed just 15 shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, the fewest among all 20 clubs. Everton also fare well in this category, allowing just 23 shots from inside the area over the same period, while Tottenham’s strength at the back has already been mentioned. Last weekend’s performance against Leicester aside, City remain a fairly resolute backline, having kept four clean sheets in their previous six matches, leaving just the matches at Stoke and Swansea. No side has allowed more big chances over the last four Gameweeks than the Potters (13), while Swansea allowed the third highest number of shots (36) from inside the box over the same period. Neither match-up can be deemed as favourable, so Villa’s attacking assets will surely remain an afterthought for most FPL bosses.

Norwich

With no favourable fixture in the next six, goals could continue to be in short supply for the Canaries, who have failed to score in three of their last four matches. The clashes against Leicester and Man City are the toughest of the next six, but Chelsea will also present pretty difficult opposition given they’ve conceded just four goals in their last four matches, and allowed the same number of big chances. Swansea have only conceded three goals in their last four, while West Ham have allowed juts four big chances over the same period. Additionally, West Brom have managed clean sheets at home to fellow relegation candidates Newcastle and Aston Villa, so the Baggies will also fancy their chances of keeping Norwich out. It’s hard to see Alex Neil’s men getting on the scoresheet too often over the coming period, then, so it’s certainly advisable to look elsewhere for budget attacking options.

Having conceded 13 goals in their last four matches, it goes without saying that Leicester and Man City look very likely to find the back of the net when they face the Canaries. West Ham rank second for total goal attempts (63) over the last four Gameweeks, while although Chelsea have only scored five times in their last four matches, it’s tough to see them not netting at Carrow Road given the Canaries’ dire form. The matches at Swansea and West Brom look to provide the best opportunities for defensive points, but having failed to keep a clean sheet on the road this season, the prospects in those fixtures also look fairly slim. As with the attacking options, Norwich defenders probably shouldn’t be featuring on our watchlists until their schedule eases between Gameweeks 32 and 35.

BE WARY OF…

West Brom
The strength of any Tony Pulis’ side is typically in defence, but two shut outs in the last 15 highlight West Brom’s problems right now. With away matches against Everton, Leicester and Arsenal in the next six, along with a home clash against Man United, further shut-outs could be in short supply. Extra emphasis will be on the more favourable home match-ups against Crystal Palace and Norwich, which may just about give owners of Baggies defensive assets enough reason to hold for the time being.

With Palace conceding 10 goals in their last four matches, that fixture, along with those against Everton and Norwich, could be seen as decent opportunities for West Brom to find the back of the net. Having scored just once in their last four, though, and with difficult clashes against Leicester, Arsenal and Man United, Baggies attackers will likely continue to see little interest in FPL.

Man City
While owners of Sergio Aguero (13.6) will be in no rush to ditch the Argentine, matches against Tottenham, Liverpool and Man United over the next six Gameweeks, along with a blank in Gameweek 27, could deter anyone who has yet to invest in the striker. The fixtures against Aston Villa and Norwich are likely to be profitable for Aguero and the rest of the City attack, though.

City’s defence continues to flounder in the absence of Vincent Kompany, and with shut-outs appearing unlikely against Tottenham and Liverpool in light of what Leicester did to the Citizens, members of the City backline look set to remain on the periphery of our thoughts.

Newcastle
Having picked up just two clean sheets on the road this term, trips to Stoke, Chelsea and, in particular, Leicester, look tough assignments for the Magpies. Newcastle also face in blank in Gameweek 27, although those negatives are somewhat balanced up by fairly favourable home clashes against Bournemouth and Sunderland in Gameweeks 29 and 31.

The upcoming period isn’t quite so bleak from an attacking viewpoint, with Chelsea and Stoke pretty indifferent at the back, while those two home matches against Bournemouth and Sunderland should make owners of Georginio Wijnaldum (7.1) think twice about ditching. With those clashes still some time away, it’s not a great surprise to see the Dutch international currently lying fourth in the transfers out this week with over 34,000 sales.