Spot the Differential – Gameweek 32

As the minutes tick away until the Gameweek 32 deadline, we roll out a trio of fit-again Fantasy options for your perusal. All three have at least one double Gameweek apiece to follow and, with Wildcards imminent, have the perfect opportunity to turn our heads.

Daniel Sturridge

Daniel Sturridge (9.9) negotiated England’s friendly against Netherlands unscathed, priming him for a starring role when Tottenham Hotspur pay a visit on Saturday. The ex-Chelsea man’s propensity for suffering niggling injuries remains a caveat, yet his consistency and capacity for explosive returns makes him an enticing gamble for managers playing catch-up in their mini-leagues. Indeed, the jet-heeled marksman bagged four goals in his previous quartet of starts, highlighting his latent potential.

On the rare occasions he’s been fit this season, Sturridge has delivered the goods, managing a goal once every 110.8 minutes – which, incidentally, places him second behind Danny Welbeck (96) among all forwards with a minimum of five starts. In addition, he charts top among Liverpool’s forward line for shot accuracy (55.6%) and shot-conversion rate (22.2%), having unleashed all but four of his 18 attempts from inside the box.

While it’s true that Spurs have conceded two or more goals just four times, their laudable defence is matched up against a Reds attack that chalked up five more goals (13) than any side across their last four matches. It’s also worth noting that the Merseysiders arguably have the psychological edge in this encounter, owing to the fact they put a total of 10 goals past the Lilywhites in the same fixture across the last three seasons.

Kevin De Bruyne

Having completed his rehabilitation from ankle ligament damage, Kevin De Bruyne (10.2) shoots back onto our radar. Although Manuel Pellegrini has admitted the Belgian “maybe won’t play 90 minutes”,
injuries to Yaya Toure and Raheem Sterling heighten the possibility that he could still be afforded significant pitch time at the Vitality Stadium. As City prepare for a double Gameweek 34, De Bruyne’s dual threat (five goals, nine assists) renders him a tantalising differential as we look to wield our Wildcards.

From a statistical standpoint, the former Chelsea man has excelled in his maiden campaign at the Etihad. On the shooting front, his shot accuracy (48.5%) ranks top among the Sky Blues’ regular starters, while his shot-conversion rate (15.2%) is second only to Sergio Aguero (16.8%) when including team-mates who’ve tallied at least 15 attempts. As for his creative influence among all midfielders, the Belgian international charts second to Mesut Ozil for key-pass frequency (one every 21.8 minutes to 24.3 minutes).

Despite turning out some impressive performances across the last four Gameweeks (three wins, one defeat), Bournemouth remain defensively suspect on their own patch, having shipped 10 goals in their previous six home clashes, offering hope that Man City can snap their barren road streak. Moreover, only Aston Villa surrendered more big chances (14) than the Cherries (seven) across the last four Gameweeks, which bolsters De Bruyne’s capacity to deliver an impactful cameo and play his way into our plans.

Danny Welbeck

With three goals and one assist in five appearances (three starts) since vacating the treatment room, Danny Welbeck (7.3) is firmly ahead of Olivier Giroud in the pecking order at Arsenal. Spearheading an attack that’s rejuvenated in the wake of a convincing 2-0 win over Everton, the Manchester United academy product – who sits at just 1% ownership – is well placed to capitalise on the good form that Mesut Ozil (one goal and assist) and Alexis Sanchez (two assists) displayed during the international break.

Delving into the figures, Welbeck looks poised for continued returns: among forwards that have notched at least six attempts since Gameweek 26, Welbeck places second – behind Daniel Sturridge – for shot accuracy (67% compared to 83%). Meanwhile, his shot-conversion rate (33%) – which admittedly derives from a limited pool of data – places third among forwards with at least six shots this campaign.

Next on the agenda for the Gunners is a home tie against Watford, who have recorded just two clean sheets since Gameweek 18. Furthermore, only three teams lay claim to fewer shut-outs on their travels than the Hornets (two), underlining their recent fragility away from Vicarage Road.