The Scout Squad – Gameweek 38

As the battle for a top-four place reaches its conclusion, Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool players dominate our thinking for the final Scout Picks of the season.

But with Gameweek 38 historically offering an above-average tally of goals, particularly for home sides looking to impress their fans for the final time, there are still plenty of strong options outside of this Champions League-chasing trio.

This article aims to give a greater insight into the decision-making process behind our selection, as Mark, Paul and I list the 18 players we think have the best chance of success across the four positions, listed in rank order.

The discussions and disagreements that will take place behind the scenes are then showcased as each of us looks to back our players for a place in the Scout Picks, as well as our Spot the Differential articles.

Finally, we will also reveal the Community Champion who has been selected by our lottery to represent the community and be in with a chance of winning a £100 Amazon voucher.

Goalkeepers

Gaining top spot in each of our three selections and with a home tie against West Ham, Burnley’s Tom Heaton (5.1) is the early frontrunner for a Scout Picks berth on Friday.

At Turf Moor, Fantasy Premier League’s (FPL) top-scoring keeper has been outstanding, earning six clean sheets and making 58 saves, a record he shares with Sunderland’s Jordan Pickford.

The Hammers’ failure to score in two of their last four road trips gives us hope of a clean sheet for the 18.4%-owned stopper as Sean Dyche’s troops look to maintain their strong home form ahead of the summer break.

Sticking with the narrative that home sides prosper in the season finale, all three of us are backing Southampton’s Fraser Forster (5.0) to profit when Stoke City visit.

The 4.9%-owned keeper’s seven home shut-outs are surpassed only by Arsenal’s Petr Cech, Spurs keeper Hugo Lloris and Thibaut Courtois of Chelsea this season. Another clean sheet in front of his own fans could be on the cards given that the Potters have only managed to score in one of their last seven away trips.

Simon Mignolet (4.7) is another home keeper that may earn a Picks call-up, with sponsorship from Paul and myself this week.

The 2.9%-owned Liverpool differential hosts a travel-sick Middlesbrough outfit that has found the net just ten times and accrued a mere 135 goal attempts on the road – the lowest of any side.

Mark is the only one of us backing an away keeper, with Manchester City’s Willy Caballero (4.8) earning a second placing as he travels to a Watford side that has only found the net in two of their last six matches.

But with one clean sheet since replacing long-term injury absentee Claudio Bravo in Gameweek 34, he will be lucky to see off competition from our three home options.

Defenders

For our defender selections, Mark is once again the only one to select an away player, with Spurs Ben Davies (4.9) gaining a tentative last placing.

The news that Danny Rose has undergone surgery means a start for the 4.6%-owned Davies looks assured. But Paul and I are still steering clear after looking at the Tigers’ home record – over their last six KCOM Stadium clashes they have only failed to find the net once, in Gameweek 36’s shock 2-0 defeat to Sunderland.

A Chelsea defender looks essential for their Stamford Bridge tie against a Sunderland side whose victory at Hull City was the only time they’ve scored in their last six away days.

But second guessing Antonio Conte’s teamsheet could be problematic. Mark and I believe their six-goal hero Marcos Alonso (6.9) will earn a start after being rested against Watford on Monday, while Paul thinks captain John Terry (5.2) will earn a second rare start in succession.

“As an Alonso owner, I’d be more than happy for Mark and Jonty to be correct on this one. But, to me, Conte’s decision to make nine changes for Monday’s home clash with Watford suggests that his eyes are fixed firmly on the FA Cup final against Arsenal at Wembley. As it’s his last match for the club, I reckon that the Italian will hand Terry a start. Beyond that, I don’t see the need to take any more unnecessary gambles on Chelsea’s teamsheet.” – Paul

Joel Matip (5.3) looks certain to survive the weekend’s shakedown, having gained universal support across our squads. Not only does a clean sheet look likely given Boro’s dire away form, but the Cameroon international also carries a major attacking threat – only Alonso has fired more shots in the box than Matip among FPL defenders.

“It’s not often this season I’ve had confidence in Liverpool’s defence but Matip looks hugely tempting as a final day solution. While we will doubtless be drawn to use our transfer in attacking areas, the centre-back genuinely presents the potential for a double-figure tally and could be a very shrewd acquisition. That has to warrant Scout Picks recognition.” – Mark

An Arsenal clean sheet is also backed by Paul and myself, although we differ on our choice of Gunner.

While Paul thinks former Bolton Wanderers centre-back Rob Holding (4.1) will earn a fifth start in a row in the London side’s back three, I’m buoyed by Laurent Koscielny’s (6.1) comments that he will overcome his ongoing calf problem to make the teamsheet. Budgetary concerns, with 84 million to spend, may yet mean that Paul prevails in this discussion.

All three of us have picked two other cut-price options – Southampton’s Maya Yoshida (4.5) and Swansea City’s Alfie Mawson (4.6) – to impress their fans for the season finale. Stoke’s aforementioned poor away record makes a clean sheet likely for the Saints’ centre-back, while our Swans selection offers us the possibility of returns at both ends of the pitch for West Brom’s visit.

The Baggies have only scored three in their last six, while Mawson has found the net four times this season.

Midfielders

There’s also no place like home for the bulk of our midfield choices, where the battle for a Champions League place comes into our thinking. The primary choice across the board is Alexis Sanchez (11.6), whose sensational recent run of form has kept Arsenal in the hunt for a top-four berth.

The 28.7%-owned Chilean, who has four goals and an assist in his last three and is currently Gameweek 37’s top FPL scorer with 27 points, has the added incentive of the Golden Boot when Everton drop by, with his season tally of 23 coincidentally just one behind leader Romelu Lukaku.

With more than a quarter of the vote, Sanchez is currently leading our season finale captain poll.

An Anfield victory against Middlesbrough for Liverpool will secure their place among Europe’s elite next season, which means that Philippe Coutinho (8.5) is likely to gain a final Scout Picks berth. The Brazilian schemer has six goals from his last eight run-outs and takes on a Boro backline that has shipped 13 in their last half a dozen fixtures, more than any other side over that period. With 67,000+ new FPL owners, he is this week’s top transfer target.

With Premier League survival secure, Swansea are expected to turn on the style for their fans at the Liberty Stadium for the visit of Tony Pulis’ side. The most stylish Swan of them all, Gylfi Sigurdsson (7.4), earns three nominations and looks a shoo-in for our final Scout Picks as he aims to add to his nine goals and 13 assists this campaign.

The Baggies have conceded nine goals and are without a clean sheet over their last six, making them unlikely party-poopers in South Wales.

Prediction problems regarding Chelsea’s teamsheet spill over into our midfield choices, with Paul steering clear of the Blues in the centre of the park, while both Mark and I fancy a start for Cesc Fabregas (6.9).

The 3%-owned Spaniard was benched against Watford on Monday, but offers a strong home record should he make the XI this weekend. Despite starting just seven times at Stamford Bridge in the league, he has notched eight assists and scored four times.

“I’m loathe to go into the final day without buying into Chelsea’s celebrations and, with doubts surrounding Eden Hazard’s minutes, I am more than happy to look to Fabregas. He has produced points in 10 of his last 11 Stamford Bridge matches and is creating chances at a faster rate than any other Premier League player – even Kevin De Bruyne and Christian Eriksen. If Chelsea are to score a hatful against Sunderland, then I believe Fabregas will be in double digits again.” – Mark

Sometimes form has to outweigh fixture, and both Paul and I are keen to see 19.2%-owned Josh King‘s (6.2) delivery of attacking returns in 10 of his last 12 matches rewarded with a place. This is in spite of him travelling to a Leicester City side that has kept clean sheets in three of their last four King Power Stadium matches.

Mark and Paul also back away day success for Manchester City against a Watford side that has shipped 11 and kept just one clean sheet in their last six.

Kevin De Bruyne (10.5) is Mark’s City midfield weapon of choice, with two goals and three assists in his last three run-outs. Meanwhile, Paul will be urging us to consider the value offered by his team-mate Leroy Sane (7.2), who has three assists and a successful strike in his last six.

Forwards

The Golden Boot race weighs heavily on our minds when it comes to considering Harry Kane (11.7), who despite playing away, claims three votes and top billing from Mark and Paul.

The 20.2%-owned striker goes into Thursday’s trip to Leicester needing three goals to leapfrog Lukaku and should be motivated to find the net against a Hull City side that has only kept a single clean sheet in their last six KCOM Stadium encounters.

Gabriel Jesus (9.0) is our only other travelling striker, with the Brazilian earning full backing ahead of his trip to Watford after scoring three and assisting a further two goals in his last four outings.

Our remaining striker places look to be up for grabs, with none of our choices earning universal support.

I am strongly backing the 14.3%-owned Jamie Vardy (9.9) to earn a place for Bournemouth’s visit by handing him top spot. Mark looks keen, too, nominating him as his third-choice option based on a superb run of form that has seen him deliver returns in nine of his last 11.

Mark and I team up against Paul once again over the inclusion of the 35.7%-owned Diego Costa (10.5).

The Spaniad was rested for the Watford match on Monday and looks to secure a start in what could well be his final Stamford Bridge outing before a possible summer move to China.

Three goals in his last four indicates he has the form and, with 30 conceded on their travels, Sunderland certainly provide him a strong fixture to punish the 30,000+ managers who have ushered him out of their squads this week.

I turn to Paul for support for my selection of Manchester United’s Wayne Rooney (8.6), who could be another playing his final home match for his club.

With Jose Mourinho prioritising the Europa League, Rooney’s tumble down the pecking order has helped him earn domestic starts of late. Three scored in his last four shows he is more than capable of taking his chances, and with visitors Crystal Palace’s shipping 11 goals in their last six, Rooney should be gifted opportunities.

Daniel Sturridge (9.6) earns votes from Paul and Mark after impressing against West Ham, where he scored in what was his first start since Gameweek 20. Liverpool’s pressing desire to secure a Champions League berth also counts in his favour.

However, his appalling injury record and the possibility of a return to fitness for Roberto Firmino to replace him means I’m staying clear of the 1%-owned England striker for Liverpool’s final day hosting of Boro.

“At home to a Middlesbrough side that has conceded at least three times in each of their last trio of road trips, Sturridge fits the bill as a prime final day differential – providing he’s still fit by the time Sunday comes around, of course. Jurgen Klopp’s decision to roll out a midfield diamond seems to have reinvigorated the Merseysiders and they’ll go into the weekend encounter filled with confidence as they look for a win that would clinch a place in the Champions League.”- Paul

The appeal of backing home sides has seen Paul opt for Burnley’s Sam Vokes (5.6), who sits in a mere 2.4% of teams, as a handy differential or bench striker ahead of West Ham’s visit. With four goals in as many matches, Vokes certainly has form to back Paul’s nomination.

But with two clean sheets and just six conceded in as many matches, West Ham look more than capable of ruining the Clarets’ final day celebrations.

Community Champion

Representing the Community against the Scout Picks in Gameweek will be Rossendale Rover. This is his ninth season, with 2012/13’s finish of 2,411 his best yet.

The community champion who has the largest Gameweek lead over the Scouts during 2016/17 will win a £100 Amazon voucher (currently we can only offer Amazon.co.uk or Amazon.com vouchers).

The current champion to beat is Boris Bodega, who achieved a 33-point margin of victory over us in Gameweek 15.