Spot the Differential

Spot The Differential – Gameweek 15

Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez came through for us in midweek with a goal in the 5-0 victory over Huddersfield, and we’re backing two other big-name midfielders to shine as differentials this time around.

Our third selection sees us take a chance on a Southampton striker who proved in Gameweek 13 that he can still find the back of the net when given the pitch time and service.

Gylfi Sigurdsson

Everton’s club-record signing is beginning to make his mark on Merseyside and he looks set for further profit with Huddersfield Town visiting Goodison Park this afternoon.

A goal and two assists in his last three Gameweek starts provide indication that the Iceland international has now settled at his new club, following an indifferent start.

The midfielder’s underlying statistics illustrate a growing influence.

He has registered more shots (five) than any team-mate over the last four Gameweeks, and has also created two big chances. The former Swansea City midfielder has supplied 19 crosses during the same spell, more than double that of any other Toffees player.

Confidence levels in the Toffees camp will have been boosted by the emphatic 4-0 victory over West Ham United, and also by the arrival of Sam Allardyce as manager.

This afternoon’s match-up will be Big Sam’s first game in charge and looks to be a platform to claim back-to-back victories.

No team has conceded more goals than Huddersfield (11) over the last four Gameweeks, while they have also given up more big chances (13) than any other side over that period.

Now down to 8.0 in Fantasy Premier League, having started the season at 8.5, Sigurdsson will be a factor today and could yet feature in our seasons.

Everton’s fixture list for the rest of 2017 remains favourable, and we might see the 2.1%-owned midfielder emerge as an effective differential under Allardyce.

Gameweek 15 looks as good opportunity to take a chance on a player who has been a firm Fantasy favourite in seasons past.

Charlie Austin

After playing just seven minutes in midweek, and with Shane Long an injury doubt, we fancy that Charlie Austin will be handed a start when Southampton travel to Bournemouth on Sunday.

The striker made the most of his first start of the season in Gameweek 13, scoring twice in the 4-1 victory over Everton.

His performance could not have been more impressive. Austin registered six shots, with five coming from inside the penalty-area.

His lack of pitch-time so far this season means the forward resides in just 1% of FPL squads. But given his proven track record, he may well be worth a look as a third striker differential.

He tallied six goals and one assist from just 11 starts last term and produced 18 goals and eight assists back in 2014/15.

His aerial prowess, in particular, could be a major factor against the Bournemouth defence. Only West Bromwich Albion (39) have conceded more headed attempts (36) this season.

Available at just 6.0 in FPL, Austin may be viewed as a possible rotation option, with his historical fitness issues perhaps meaning he won’t be able to start every match over this congested period.

But with a favourable Gameweek 15 match-up, and strong home fixtures against Leicester City and Huddersfield coming up, he could warrant a gamble.

Philippe Coutinho

The forgotten man in the FPL midfield shake-up can be a major game-changer for Fantasy managers.

After being an unused substitute in the 3-0 win over Stoke City on Wednesday night, Philippe Coutinho is expected to return to the starting XI for this afternoon’s trip to Brighton & Hove Albion.

While it’s been a stop-start campaign for the Brazilian so far, he’s still totalled three goals, two assists and eight bonus points from just seven starts.

Now down to just 8.8 in FPL, he could be a great option to double up on the Liverpool attack, alongside Mohamed Salah, for the favourable run of fixtures heading into 2018.

While today’s opponents Brighton have been relatively solid at the Amex Stadium, conceding just seven goals, there is every chance the free-scoring Reds can prosper.

The Seagulls rank sixth for the most big chances allowed in home matches, with 12, and fifth for shots on target conceded (29).

Meanwhile, Jurgen Klopp’s side currently boast the Premier League’s in-form attack. They lead the way for both goals scored (11) and big chances (13) over the last four Gameweeks.

When he’s been on the pitch, Coutinho has been hugely influential, averaging a shot every 20.5 minutes, which matches the prolific Salah.

While Coutinho mainly relies on efforts from range, he has also created a chance every 29 minutes, superior to both Salah (50) and Sadio Mane (51).

An FPL goal involvement rate of 50% highlights Coutinho’s importance to the Liverpool attack.

If you’re seeking a differential with the potential for a big tally, the 5.2%-owned Reds midfielder fits the profile perfectly.

2,220 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Gooner97
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    C'mon Alvarooo

    1. Make Arrows Green Again
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Don't captain him. One point incoming.

      1. Gooner97
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Not captaining but excited to own my favourite player again.

        1. Make Arrows Green Again
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Me too 🙂

  2. Ed
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Hopefully Willian and Pedro on the bench today, leaving Haz forward with Morata

  3. Ninjaa
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Aguero to start or not?
    Shall I get rid for Morata?..
    No other Chelsea

    1. Ninjaa
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Got Sane also

    2. Balls of Steel
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Aguero will start, City already qualified for next round of CL so can rest him midweek

      1. Bggz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Finally!!! Someone who knows what peps going to do... where have you been for the past 14 gws mr Steel we really needed you??!

        1. Balls of Steel
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          I have a direct line to Mr. Guardian and he has assured me that his line up will include Sergio against West Ham this weekend.

          1. Balls of Steel
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            Guardiola

          2. Bggz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            Now I'm m worried about Jesus. Did he really die for my sins?

    3. Bggz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Yep

    4. Takedog1
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Why get rid for morata?

  4. Darsh
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    any leaked Liverpool lineup?

    1. BrockLanders
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Robertson starts. Nothing else leaked yet

      1. In Bale We Trust
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Leaked where?

          1. GoodOak
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            Am I missing something? This article says "Andrew Robertson is expected to get a rare inclusion in the squad". It doesn't say he definitely starts.

      2. vinniebolton
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Doubt it

    2. Digital-Real
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      There is some team news, Robertson most likely to start.

    3. Balls of Steel
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Say it ain't so, just brought in Moreno for the injured Cedric

  5. BrockLanders
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Spurs beat Silvas Hull 7-1 away a couple of yrs ago btw. Kane & Alli got 2 each..

    1. Gooner97
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Hull were way dreadful than Watford.

    2. jia you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A brace for both Kane & Alli today would be glorious 🙂

  6. Patch
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Kun Kurse:

    Similar to last week I am willing to have a Morata blank as long as Kun blanks too:

    http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2017/11/29/yahoo-focus-gameweek-14/?hc_page=30#hc_comment_17062915

    1. Professor Abel X
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      God will be on my side this week, I made sure I donated £3

      1. Patch
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Dang I haven't donated this week...maybe I need to join my nemesis and get Aguero just a pity tough fixtures scattered randomly ahead...too expensive to bench

  7. majorbriggs
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Gtg? Hard to decide captaincy...

    Begovic
    Azpilicueta, Daniels, Ward
    Salah, Sane, Pogba, Richarlison, RLC
    Kane, Morata (c)

    Bench: Elliot, Tammy, Dunk, Jones

  8. Connor's Calling
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone know why Salah scores so poorly on RMT?

    Still trying to decide between him or Kane for (c)

    1. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I suppose BHA do not concede a lot.

    2. Bggz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Rmt is always weeks behind and totally ignores some players

      1. Mark
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 17 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        It's not "weeks behind" it's a model that doesn't immediately react to short-term form. It's a mid to long-term prediction tool.

        The model gradually builds player rates as form progresses over time. Rooney is not suddenly projected 20 goals because he got a hat-trick in midweek and Salah rates are building and he is now Liverpool's dominant points scorer. As he continues to dominate, his rates will increase but the model currently feels that Mane, Firmino and Coutinho will improve to take more of a share based on their past rates.

        1. Bggz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          I understand it's never going. To be perfect but it's worth taking into account when using it some players will be downplayed, because of the reasons you've given. Good to know about the new players like Salah will be a few weeks behind. I think that's what you're saying?

          1. Mark
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 17 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            You only see it as behind because you're expecting Salah to maintain the scoring rates, the model doesn't.

            Salah's current form is out of the ordinary - as is the fact that Firmino etc are not sharing the goals - and it's too easy for us to raise expectations because of that. I don't think Salah's projection today is unrealistic.

            We look at the rates after each GW so lets see how GW15 goes.

            1. Bggz
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              6 years, 6 months ago

              Personally I think 5.16 is about right and he's over performing

    3. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A few reasons. Salah is a new player, therefore the model doesn't have historical data to use. Secondly, player form is reflected gradually in the model, so Salah's rates are building but won't jump massively. It has to be like that otherwise the model would react to hat-tricks by immediately jumping rates. Thirdly, the model believes that Liverpool's goals will be shared more with Mane, Firmino and Coutinho on the pitch. Right now, Salah is hogging the goals but the model feels that this will even out a bit more.

      Having said all this, last time I looked he was given an average of 5.16 points which is the highest scoring Liverpool player.

      1. Bggz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Last season King was running on 2.6ish points until the end even though he was smashing it. Someone else too can't remember who

        1. Mark
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 17 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Not sure where you get that from, that's wasn't the case. Might have been gradual but I've checked...

          Here's Captain Sensible from GW29 showing King in the top ten.

          http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2017/03/17/captain-sensible-gameweek-29-4/

          Again, the model may not have lept on King's form but this shows that even by GW29, it was rating King highly.

          1. Mark
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 17 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            It's the same kind of event tbf. King's rate of scoring was beyond expectation and, unless we rework the model to be far more short-term, it is not going to react quickly to bursts of form. I think predicting King among the top captains by GW29 highlights that it adjusted over time though.

          2. Bggz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            Hmm who was it then... I was monitoring a couple of mine and remember they never were doing well in rmt so I lost a bit of faith.

            One thing while I've got you.. next week :
            Ddg 3.46 b
            Elliot 2.45

            Why is the b on ddg, it does that sometimes?

  9. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone who has captained Sterling? I do not want to die alone.

    1. Sune
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      o/

    2. vinniebolton
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I haven’t got the balls to cap any city player due to pep rotation, if I could be assured sterling starts I wud cap

  10. Catastrophe
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Not worth doing DDG -> Courtois with FT is it? Much more clean sheet opportunity for Chelsea over next 5 GWs?

    1. Kun Tozser
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I have

    2. BrockLanders
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Mourinho has a hoodoo over Wenger remember

  11. infamousprob
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Is doing sane -> coutinho madness?

    1. Gooner97
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Keep Sane

    2. Super Silva Haze
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Insane

    3. Bggz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Too similar

    4. infamousprob
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Last time i ask anything in this forum. Coutinho 19pts, sane better deliver tomorrow

  12. Gooner97
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Why is Joel Pereira rising in price? 😆

    1. adidasOriginals
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      bargain hunters

    2. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Played well against Man U, favorable fixtures.

  13. Lecky Legs FC
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Worth doubling up on ARS defence got Mustafi already considering getting Kos,Kola or Monreal thoughts?

    1. El_Shaw
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      No way. Even though they're on a good run, I still wouldn't trust their defence long term.

    2. Pacer.
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      High risk high reward re. Clean sheets, but they both look capable of regular attacking returns and arsenal are hitting a rich vein of gole . I like both kola and nacho and would be very satisfied to put out both each week

      1. Lecky Legs FC
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        I had one of the above you mentioned to do well over the next 3 GW's it's risky like but I think ARS look solid at the back now with Mustafi back and Kos pairing with him I'll mull over it some more cheers for your reply

  14. Who Ate All Depays?
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Bench any 1?
    A) Mee
    B) Francis
    C) Niasse

    1. Sune
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      You

  15. The King
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Who would you captain out of these:

    A) Sterling
    B) Sane
    C) Salah
    D) Jesus
    E) Morata
    F) Rooney

    1. Ha.
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      C

    2. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I have gone for A because of the higher ceiling for points.

    3. jia you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      You have too much time on your hands adding an F) option haha!
      Out of that lot, I would go C) Salah

  16. tim
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Will Jesus start?

    1. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I do not know? Ask Mary or Joseph.

  17. Lord of Ings
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Play :-
    1)pope
    2) Elliot
    3) bring in Kasper for -4
    I already have Ward and don't seem keen on a double burnley defence this week.

  18. Ha.
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Captain?

    A. Kane
    2. Salah

    1. Andriy Shevchenko is Back
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Salah

    2. Gooner97
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    3. Egbunike
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      1 or B

      Maybe Kane

    4. jia you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A all day

  19. Champions united
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    any change req for front line or GTG??(0GT,0.6ITB)

    salah-sane-silva-richalison
    kane-morata-wilson

    1. Professor Abel X
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Gtg

  20. FPL Jogger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Pope
    Alonso daniels ward
    Salah Silva Alli Richalison
    Kane Morata Niasse
    Elliott RLC Duffy Jones
    1FT 0.1ITB

    G2G?
    Saving FT would enable me to switch out jones and Alli next week

  21. Gooner97
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    I have a feeling that McArthur (on my bench) will score today... but really can't bench either Gross or Richarlison.

    1. jia you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      If you think McArthur scores a goal, you can easily bench Gross!

  22. Weilong7
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    De gea Elliot
    Christensen bavies mee Moreno (3.8)
    Ramsey silva salah richarlison Carroll
    Kane lkk wood

    Lkk to morata? Or hold?
    Any suggestions welcomed! Thanks

    1. El_Shaw
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I'd be worried about your defense. Bavies a rotation risk, Moreno reportedly dropped today, and then you need to upgrade the 3.8 to a playing defender.

  23. Ruud van Kane
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Struggling with this one!
    Abraham or Young?

    1. Bggz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Blurgh

  24. The Left Duke #3
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    2 FT 0.0m ITB

    Elliot Speroni
    Otamendi Mee Daniels Kiko Gomez
    Salah Silva Richarlison Gross Carroll
    Kane Morata Aguero

    A) Aguero & Carroll --> Niasse & Hazard (c)
    B) Aguero & Speroni/Elliot --> Vardy & Courtois...Kane (c)
    C) Stick & roll the 2FT... Aguero (c)

  25. Your Mum Zohore
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Been switching the armband between Salah and Kane, somebody saveeeeee meeeee!

    1. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Sterling and then go buy antidepressants

      1. Your Mum Zohore
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Wish I was that brave, good differential though

      2. vinniebolton
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Just having sterling is a differential in my ml... cap is a risk to far

  26. Tomas Brolin ate all Depays
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Best budget goalkeeper ?

    No pressing issues so might ship out Elliott

  27. Nolberto Solano
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Current defence:

    Azpi Alonso Ward Fernandez* Hunemeier*

    A) Save FT
    B) Fernandez -> Mustafi
    C) Fernandez -> Daniels
    D) Fernandez -> Sakho
    E) Fernandez -> Femenia
    F) Fernandez -> Kenny

    1. adidasOriginals
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      F

  28. WUSS
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    What looks better guys?

    A. Azpi, Kenny, RLC in

  29. adidasOriginals
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Morning all...Who shall I play

    A - Richarlison (TOT)
    B - Gross (LIV)

    Also, no strong/weak article? WTF!

    1. jia you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A is not really benchable imo

    2. Sune
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Coin toss. Richarlison.

  30. Lord of Ings
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Play pope or bring in Kasper for -4?