It’s time, once again, for our pre-Gameweek members’ article as we analyse the armband conundrum for the penultimate round of festive fixtures.
We kick off by assessing the main players in this week’s Captain Poll, then turn to the Opta numbers and check up on the Rate My Team ratings before rolling out a differential or two in light of the data analysis.
The Captain Poll
Mohamed Salah (29%) takes first spot as Liverpool entertain a Leicester City outfit with just one clean sheet in their last ten league matches.
The Egyptian’s pair of assists in the 5-0 midweek rout of Swansea City continued a relentless run of consistency that has produced points in 11 of the last 12 Gameweeks.
Up against a defence that’s conceded ten times in the past five Gameweeks, Roberto Firmino and Philippe Coutinho can emerge as very strong differentials.
Only 6% have backed Firmino, yet he has delivered double-digits in three successive Gameweeks, outscoring Salah in each of those occasions.
Fancied by a mere 3%, Coutinho has also outdone the Egyptian over those three matches by a total of 34 points to 27 and has served up double-digits in six of his 12 league starts.
The relative lack of faith is perhaps down to Coutinho’s 90-minute outing against the Swans, whereas both Salah and Firmino were withdrawn midway through the second period.
Chelsea pair Eden Hazard (18%) and Alvaro Morata (14%) are regarded as Salah’s main challengers.
At home to a depleted Stoke defence that’s conceded more goals (41) than any side, Hazard attempts to address a poor run of form that has produced just one assist in the last five.
However, only two of those matches were alongside Morata – indeed, Hazard has delivered 46 points in his previous five starts with the Spaniard on the teamsheet.
Morata, meanwhile, will be hoping that history repeats itself on Saturday. He bagged a hat-trick in his last appearance against the Potters to produce a season-high 17 points.
Only 2% are willing to take a gamble on Marcos Alonso, who has supplied 14 points in each of Chelsea’s last two home fixtures.
Raheem Sterling (6%) and Sergio Aguero (3%) are regarded as Man City’s main men for a trip to Crystal Palace.
Having served up double-figures in each of his last three, Sterling again seems an overlooked option against a defence that has still to record a clean sheet in front of their own fans.
Tied at the top with Harry Kane for points per match (ppm) among forwards (6.9), the concern with Aguero is that his pitch-time could be in question on the back of four successive starts, with Gabriel Jesus perhaps set to be handed a role on the teamsheet at Selhurst Park.
With a goal or assists in seven of his last ten league outings, Kevin De Bruyne (1%) could also prove a handy differential.
The most bought midfielder for the Gameweek, Jesse Lingard has four sets of double-digits in the last seven rounds of fixtures.
Despite hosting a Southampton defence that’s managed a single clean sheet in 15 attempts, Lingard (1%) and Romelu Lukaku (2%) have been largely ignored.
The big Belgian is second only to Kane for sales up front since Tuesday’s deadline passed, yet he has scored six times in nine outings against the Saints.
Leicester’s Jamie Vardy also has strong form against his weekend opponents, netting six times in seven. Yet it’s Riyad Mahrez who makes his way to Anfield as the Foxes’ man in form – he’s averaged 5.82 ppm since the appointment of Claude Puel.
Alexis Sanchez also has to be considered for Arsenal’s trip to West Brom after delivering a season-high 15 points at Crystal Palace on Thursday night.
And the fit-again Wayne Rooney could also profit away to Bournemouth. The Everton striker has produced 49 points in his last five outings and will square up to a defence that’s failed to keep a clean sheet in seven, shipping 17 goals over that stretch.
6 years, 5 months ago2FT and 0.4ITB.
Foster - Elliot
Alonso - Otamendi - Ogbonna - Duffy - Lowton
Hazard - Salah - Sterling - Richarlison - RLC
Kane - Firmino - DCL
a. Elliot > Adrian
b. Lowton > Schindler
c. Lowton > Robertson
d. Something else