Metrics

Metrics – The Bench Boost and Free Hit

In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

3,973 Comments Post a Comment
  1. ZimZalabim
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Repost

    Final team on FH

    Butland
    Baines/Milner/Bellerin
    Salah/Mane/Zaha/Sterling/Sane
    Jesus/Laca

    Grant/Crouch/Tomkins/Long

    GTG ?

    should i swap Sane Bellerin and Grant to KDB yedlin and fodder ?

    1. oscarhs
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Yes, Sane higher rotation risk

    2. Joggers Nipple
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      I would stick, looks fine

    3. EIE
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Great team. Nice bench as well in case of rotation nightmares. GTG

    4. L S P
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      yes swap

    5. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      cheers for the replies but two of you say swap and two say its gtg hahaha im still not sure what to do.

      Sane has better form over the last three but Kdb is more nailed and has better home form over all especially against weaker teams, but has looked really tired off late

      1. EIE
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Swansea are still fighting for their lives and the way they defend en masse may see KDB going deeper and deeper to get the ball if City don't make an early breakthrough. I've hated watching him do that as an owner at times this season.

        At least with Sane, assuming he starts (which I think he will as Pep wants to put on a party with all the big guns) you know he's always going to be in positions to score points.

        If the rotation issue worries you go KDB of course, but I think Sane has a higher ceiling.

        1. ZimZalabim
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 1 month ago

          cheers
          ya i think u have a point about him getting deeper to pick the ball up and i believe he tends to play deeper anyway without fernandinho on the pitch.

          Sane has looked good in the last few games and should have scored that volley vs spurs. Im not that worried about rotation, i agree that pep will want to put on a show this week before he starts giving more game time to squad players. So i think im set then cheers again

    6. Fantastisk
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      B

  2. oscarhs
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Any ideas for this defence lads?

    Butland
    Moreno Tomkins Chambers (Long Haidara)

    Not 100% convinced by Arsenal pick

    1. EIE
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Chambers unlikely to start

    2. Srv210
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Get BUR defender instead of chambers

      1. L S P
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        like Long?

      2. oscarhs
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Haha 😉 thoughts on Newcastle defence e.g. Yedlin?

        1. L S P
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 1 month ago

          i'd have yedlin over chambers

  3. EIE
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Am I GTG here or more tinkering/better bench required? FH, 0.2 ITB

    Hennessey

    Bellerin - Walker - Klavan

    Sterling - Ozil - Salah (c) - Mane - Zaha

    Jesus - Laca

    3.9 - Long - 3.9 - 4.5

    1. oscarhs
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Could upgrade Klavan -> Moreno?

      1. EIE
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Good shout - didn't realise he'd gone down to 4.3. Cheers!

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      you could downgrade walker to ota or kompany and get another bench player or upgrade hennessey to pickford or butland

  4. Fred the Red
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    A) Mahrez to Sterling (allows me to do Lukaku to Kane next week)
    B) Lukaku to Jesus
    C) Both for a hit

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      c

  5. melvinmbabazi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on my FH team? 0.0 ITB
    Any Changes?

    Butland
    Baines Milner Chambers
    Salah (c) KDB Sterling Mane Mili
    Jesus Laca

    Fodder Long Fodder Fodder

    Cheers

    1. EIE
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Need to lose Chambers as he prob won't start.

      Can you do Baines and Chambers to Bellerin and Lowton?

      1. melvinmbabazi
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Yes

  6. Srv210
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Two decisions are confusing me right now

    1. Which GK to get
    A) butland
    B) dubravka (NEW double with lascelles)

    2. Which 3rd city player to get( can't afford KDB)
    A) sane
    B) silva
    C) Kompany

    Thanks

    1. Joggers Nipple
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      A and a

    2. 007 [RoboKlopp]
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      A A

  7. 007 [RoboKlopp]
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Hi, any thought on my "final" FH team:

    Butland
    Milner, Baines, PVA
    Salah, KDB, Mane, Sterling, Zaha Laca, G Jesus
    (3.9m, Long, Crouch, Dummett)

    Milner and Laca quite risky but taking the risk hope its pay off.
    Cheers

    1. mcrayeps
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      GTG
      I couldnt afford Milner
      Great TV... Good luck 🙂

    2. Srv210
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Same risks for me too..but behind in ML so risking it all...GTG

    3. EIE
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Nice. GTG

      Who you captaining?

      1. 007 [RoboKlopp]
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks. C on Salah and VC G Jesus. Really hope Salah will play. How about you?

        1. EIE
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 1 month ago

          Yeah tough to take it away from Mo right now so will be doing the same I think.

          Only issue is bloke above me in money ML is a long way ahead. Doesn't have the FH chip though, so I'm still banking on closing the gap big time this week!

  8. mcrayeps
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts lads?

    Butland
    Moreno / Baines / Bellerin
    KDB / Sterling / Salah / Mane / Zaha
    Jesus / Laca
    (3.9 / Crouch / Long / 3.9)

    1. 007 [RoboKlopp]
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Solid, our differences is Moreno, Bellerin with my Milner and PVA.

      1. mcrayeps
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Milner is a good punt there..

    2. Srv210
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Similar attacks..gth

  9. JasonG123
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Hennessey (3.9)
    Bellerin Milner Baines (Long 3.9)
    Mane Salah Sterling KDB Zaha
    Jesus Lacazette (4.5)

    Is there any way I can skim off 0.3m in order to turn Hennessey into Butland? Or just leave it?

    1. Mysterion
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Milly > VVD

    2. EIE
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Bellerin > Monreal

      1. JasonG123
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers, is it actually worth doing this?

        1. EIE
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 1 month ago

          Personally wouldn't be losing Milner to do it. OOP, on some set-pieces etc. Maybe even on pens.

          For what it's worth, I think Palace and Stoke will both concede so maybe just stick with what you have!

  10. Aubamewho
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Karius
    Otamendi Mustafi Tomkins
    Salah(c) Sterling Sane Zaha Milivo
    Aubameyang
    -8
    g2g ?

    1. Srv210
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      GTG...auba risky,but I think he'll play some minutes

      1. Aubamewho
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers

  11. Fred the Red
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    A) Alonso -> Otamendi
    B) Save

    1. Fantastisk
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      B

    2. L S P
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      why would you not?

    3. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      a

    4. 007 [RoboKlopp]
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      A

  12. The Curse of Falcao
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    FH Active. G2G or any changes needed?
    0.0 ITB

    Butland
    Bellerin Klavan Baines
    Sterling Salah(c) Sane Zaha Mane
    Jesus Lacazette

    3.9|Crouch|Tomkins|Long

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      very similar to my team i would say ur gtg
      i have more funds which is making my decisions a bit harder

      1. The Curse of Falcao
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        can't decide whether to go Baines or for a double Arsenal DEF

        1. ZimZalabim
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 1 month ago

          keep baines spread the risk
          Im looking at sacrificing bellerin to upgrade sane to kdb, i wouldn't recommend double arsenal def but there are a few people doing it on here

  13. mcrayeps
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    What will we do to wenger when he bench laca and start auba against WHU?

    1. Fantastisk
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Lol at the Scout.

      (On Auba)

    2. L S P
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      not read too much into press conferences next time

  14. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Best trio for this week only?

    A) VVD, Zaha, D Silva
    B) Moreno, Shaqiri, KDB

    1. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      A

    2. The Curse of Falcao
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      A

  15. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    No FH. Worth taking hits total to -12 for Mee to Tomkins? Neither has DGW 37 (bench boosting then) but Tomkins better fixtures, as well as being nailed this week. Gives me:


    Lowton vdH Tomkins Robertson*
    Sterling (c) Silva
    Jesus Barnes

    Y/N?

    1. Srv210
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      -12 is too much imo

      1. Top Lad Dakes.
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        So not worth it to get in another player?

        1. Srv210
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 1 month ago

          If you feel you can recover -12 from the players you get then do it...

  16. Srv210
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Which one def to play???

    A) lascelles
    B) Lowton
    C) kiko femenia

    1. Fantastisk
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      B

    2. si
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Kiko

    3. Srv210
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Anybody else for the tiebreaker??

    4. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      B

  17. Fantastisk
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Minutes:

    Laca 65
    Auba 99

    1. Fantastisk
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      (9 mins added due to Carroll injury)

  18. si
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Wellbeck anyone? His form suggests he starts in the week so could well start Sunday?

    1. Srv210
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      When you say this..having second thoughts on laca vs auba vs Welbeck debate in my mind

      1. si
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Auba too risky now.

    2. Expected Toulouse
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Wenger has a track record of benching players who are on form. So wouldn't count on him starting.

      1. si
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        I like the fact he was benched last week.

        1. Expected Toulouse
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 1 month ago

          If you are on a free hit i would take a punt. If not i would't risk it.

          1. Expected Toulouse
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 1 month ago

            Wouldn't*

  19. FPL ElasticO
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Who is worth transfer in??

    A. Mane
    B. KDB

    1. si
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Non FH? KDB

  20. barton fc
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    thoughts?
    butland
    Bellerín klavan lowton
    salah (c) mane KDB sterling zaha
    jesus laca
    ----------------------------------------------
    Nordfeldt yedlin long Tulloch

  21. Bellybig
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    everyone's FH look the same. The risk to be taken here is in the defence. Going for a triple up in Arsenal (Cech, Kos, Bell). If it works, it works. If it doesn't work, not the worse as well as I don't see any cleanies elsewhere other than City.

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Going for double up, Cech-Ospina 😎

      1. Bellybig
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        if it's a dress rehearsal, I reckon he wants his full defence in. He will want to keep a clean sheet in the first leg.

    2. Fantastisk
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Arsenal will win but concede (Arsenal fan).

      1. Bellybig
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        it may, but there's also a high chance they keep it clean. Vs that of predicting minutes between Laca, Wel and Aub.. and who will score between them.

    3. ZimZalabim
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      city look nailed on for a cs but i dont know if i can sacrifice an attacker.

      I would really not bet that heavily on arsenal of all teams to keep a cs especially with carroll fit again he could come off the bench and score would prefer to spread the risk - Everton vs Newcastle looks like it could end 0-0 neither has anything to play for

      1. Bellybig
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        all good too. my point is with everyone going for almost the same attack, the place to catch up is in defence. A triple up may do wonders. Worked well for me at the start of the season with Soton.

  22. Setpiecemad
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Is this frontline too heavy for my FH team?

    Butland (Hennessy)
    Klavan Baines Tomkins (LeJeune and Long)
    Sterling Sane Mane Salah Ozil
    Jesus Laca (Perez)

    1. Bellybig
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      it's the same for everyone here

    2. Jairzinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      No, it looks about right. Good luck!

      1. Setpiecemad
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks

  23. barton fc
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    is lacca and auba an option?

  24. Geezer
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Captain Sterling or Jesus?

    1. Expected Toulouse
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Sterling.

  25. semiconductor
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    After the leaked Liverpool team, who to bench?
    1. Firminho or milo?
    2. Robertson or Lascelles?

  26. Weeb Kakashi
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    No much love for Ozil.
    Any reasons?

    Will definitely play more than Lacazette

    1. Srv210
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      For me mid is full..but short on attackers so laca

    2. Expected Toulouse
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Probably due to lack of Striker options this week. Many people on free hit will have Salah + Mane, 2 of Sterling/De Bruyne/Sane/Silva, Zaha/Arnie in mid. Then probably Jesus and 1 of Laca/Auba up front. And people without the free hit will pick Mane or a City mid ahead of Ozil.

      1. mcrayeps
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        This sums up every pages here

      2. ATXHorn
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 1 month ago

        The ? to me is do you bring in Ozil at the expense of the defense or go with Zaha and better defense.

  27. JasonG123
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Which combo:
    (A) Milner and Hennessey (also allows two bench players in Mariappa and Long)
    (B) VVD and Butland (only allows one bench player in Long)

  28. Messsiaah
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    If chasing who is the better cap choice?
    Jesus
    Kdb
    Sterling

    1. The Curse of Falcao
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Sterling

    2. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Jesus

    3. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Whoever you think will score the most points...

  29. Awesomeness
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    A. Otamendi & Tosun
    B. Bellerin & Sane

    1. Srv210
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 1 month ago

      B

  30. Fred the Red
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 1 month ago

    A) Otamendi (Kane next week for a hit)
    B) Kompany (Kane next week for free)