The FPL Title Race

With around 24 hours to go before the Fantasy Premier League crown is decided, we’re focusing on some of those managers in the thick of the title race.

Intriguingly, going into the final ten fixtures, none of the world’s top five managers have Mohamed Salah in their squads. He is owned by just two of the top ten managers, while only two other managers can acquire him without spending transfer points.

The Egyptian could very well settle the title depending on how many of them decide to blink and transfer him in for one last hurrah.

Meanwhile, FPL’s best five managers so far this season will be relying on the services of Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling as they face Leicester (home) and Southampton (away) respectively.

Both of those individuals will be candidates for the captaincy and could also play a major role in settling the title.

We’ve analysed each of FPL’s top five managers ahead of the final weekend to see which players can make the difference in the hunt for the ultimate prize in Fantasy Football.

Bharat Dhody – Boom Xhaka Laca

Total points: 2,452
Current rank: 1
Nation: India
In the bank: £0.4m

Goalkeepers: David De Gea, Mat Ryan
Defenders: Marcos Alonso, Jan Bednarek, Calum Chambers, Wes Morgan, Mike van der Hoorn
Midfielders: Dele Alli, Tom Carroll, Riyad Mahrez, Raheem Sterling, Son Heung-min
Forwards: Ashley Barnes, Gabriel Jesus, Harry Kane.

Currently leading the way is Indian manager Bharat Dhody, whose Boom Xhaka Laca side has held down the world’s top spot since Gameweek 21, an incredible stretch of time.

It has been an impressive turnaround for Bharat over the last 12 months after he recorded an overall rank of 902,586 last season.

Having secured two consecutive top-10,000 finishes before that, Bharat is back among the top bracket.

However, the Arsenal fan will have to do some work to stay at number one for one last Gameweek.

Defence, in particular, could cause some issues with his goalkeeper David De Gea set to be rested by Jose Mourinho.

Furthermore, picking three starters from Marco Alonso, Wes Morgan, Jan Bednarek, Mike van der Hoorn and rotation risk Calum Chambers looks to be a testing dilemma.

With Ashley Barnes now ruled out, Bharat may be reticent to start Tom Carroll despite a favourable fixture against Stoke City.

Meanwhile, he will have to decide whether bringing Salah back for a home fixture against Brighton is worth a points hit. Riyad Mahrez, Dele Alli, Son Heung-min and Sterling are the only midfield options capable of making way for the Liverpool man.

Bharat has generally shied away from taking points hits this season, doing so in only five Gameweeks, so it will be interesting to see how he solves that defensive dilemma and the absence of Salah.

However, he is not averse to taking risks at crucial moments, after opting for a 12-point hit in Double Gameweek 37. It was his biggest of the campaign in preparation for the deployment of the Bench Boost, which earned him 100 points.

Faisal Idris – Starlet

Total points: 2,445
Current rank: 2
Nation: Indonesia
In the bank: £0.5m

Goalkeepers: David De Gea, Kasper Schmeichel
Defenders: Marcos Alonso, Cesar Azpilicueta, Ben Chilwell, Matt Lowton, Jan Vertonghen
Midfielders: Christian Eriksen, Jordon Ibe, Jesse Lingard, Raheem Sterling, Willian
Forwards: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Jordan Ayew, Harry Kane.

Hoping to overturn Bharat’s seven-point lead is Faisal Idris, who is enjoying his best FPL campaign by some margin.

Prior to 2017/18, the Indonesian Fantasy manager had never been inside the top 400,000. His best-ever ranking was 422,469, recorded last season, and that was a dramatic improvement on 1,358,061 in 2015/16 and 1,972,672 before that.

So even if Faisal does not manage to knock Bharat off his long-held perch, he can still be satisfied with an incredibly successful campaign.

His hopes of winning FPL will rest on the shoulders of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

He is the only member of FPL’s current top ten with the Arsenal man in their squad, who has more goals among forwards (nine) than any other since his arrival in Gameweek 26.

The former Borussia Dortmund striker has recorded 6.58 points per match over that time and faces a Huddersfield Town defence in Gameweek 38 that has conceded 2.6 goals on average in home matches against top six sides.

Faisal’s impressive Gameweek 37 score of 120, trimming Bharat’s lead by 20 points, was underpinned by handing Aubameyang the captaincy – being brave enough to do so again could win him the top prize.

The biggest issue for Faisal to solve is between the sticks.

Kasper Schmeichel remains a fitness doubt while De Gea is set to miss out. That will add complications to potential hopes of getting Salah in with Christian Eriksen and Sterling the most expensive midfielders able to be swapped out as part of a hit for him.

But hits haven’t been an issue for Faisal – with 52 over the season – he has spent more points on transfers than any of the top ten.

Faisal looks strong in defence with two Chelsea assets to choose from and Matt Lowton and Jan Vertonghen ready to start, too.

Henri Äär – da bestest

Total points: 2,438
Current rank: 3
Nation: Estonia
In the bank: £0.4m

Goalkeepers: Alex McCarthy, Mat Ryan
Defenders: Andreas Christensen, Federico Fernandez, Wes Morgan, Mike van der Hoorn, Jan Vertonghen
Midfielders: Marko Arnautovic, Christian Eriksen, Eden Hazard, Leroy Sané, Raheem Sterling
Forwards: Charlie Austin, Jordan Ayew, Harry Kane

Henri Aar’s chances of rising to the summit of FPL look to rely on Marko Arnautovic, who could be a great differential in Gameweek 38.

In just 6.7% of teams, the Austrian midfielder has 14 shots inside the box in his last six matches – only Sterling (16) and Salah (18) have more in that time.

With a 14-point gap separating Estonian manager Henri from the top of the pile, the West Ham man, who faces an Everton side sixth-worst for away shots allowed this season (7.7 per match), is exactly the player he needs.

Also in Henri’s favour is that he appears to be in a very strong position to acquire Salah. He can simply swap out Eden Hazard (£10.5m), who has just one attacking return in his last four, without taking a hit.

Henri boasts the lowest total points spent on transfer hits among this season’s current FPL’s top five (20).

The Estonian is perhaps at his most vulnerable in the goalkeeper position as Alex McCarthy and Mat Ryan face Man City and Liverpool respectively.

Furthermore, he looks a little light up front. Charlie Austin is up against a City side with more clean sheets on their travels (nine) than any side, while Jordan Ayew has blanked in his last four.

Paul Gee – My Little Kone

Total points: 2432
Current rank: 4
Nation: England
In the bank: £1.8m

Goalkeepers: David De Gea, Mat Ryan
Defenders: Lewis Dunk, Matt Lowton, Wes Morgan, James Tarkowski, Jan Vertonghen
Midfielders: Dele Alli, Marko Arnautovic, Jack Cork, Pascal Groß, Raheem Sterling
Forwards: Gabriel Jesus, Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy

Paul Gee from England has performed consistently well in FPL during his time as a Fantasy manager.

He has finished inside the top 5,000 in three of the last eight seasons and inside the top 20,000 in five of them. But 2017/18 has been, by far, his best.

Not only is Paul in with a shout of winning the competition, he also leads the way in our FFS Members mini-league by 36 points.

Knowing that at least two of our aforementioned managers (Faisal and Henri) are likely to start Vertonghen, Paul will surely hold on to Jamie Vardy and hope he can remain the only member of the top five to own him.

The Leicester man has more away goals among forwards (nine) than anyone other than Kane (15), so he could do some real damage to the hopes of Paul’s rivals, even if it will cost him some clean sheet points in the process.

With Morgan and Dunk set to face Spurs and Liverpool respectively, a defensive double-up on Burnley’s James Tarkowski and Lowton seems likely.

In midfield, Paul could join Henri in being propelled by Arnautovic towards glory. However, crucially, he also has 1.8 in the bank – more than any other top ten manager – with which to make the move to Salah. Dele Alli or Raheem Sterling could make way in one move to acquire the Egyptian.

Kosta Pagonis – Paggas Boys

Total points: 2425
Current rank: 5
Nation: Australia
In the bank: £0.6m

Goalkeepers: Alex McCarthy, Mat Ryan
Defenders: Marcos Alonso, Ben Chilwell, Matt Lowton, Wes Morgan, Chris Smalling
Midfielders: Christian Eriksen, Pascal Groß, Son Heung-min, Raheem Sterling, Willian
Forwards: Ashley Barnes, Gabriel Jesus, Harry Kane

In his first ever season inside the top 50,000 in FPL, Australia’s Kosta Pagonis is 27 points off the coveted prize.

The Manchester United supporter will need to find some differentials if he is to seriously challenge for the title, though.

There is not a single member of his squad that is absent from the four sides above him in the rankings, apart from Smalling – who we know will miss out on Gameweek 38.

In fact, there is an overlap of eight players between Pagonis’ and current leader Bharat. So it may come down to choice of captain as to whether or not the Australian can leap-frog the top four.

Either that or Kosta could go all-in for the title by taking more risks in the transfer market. He could off-load the highly owned Sterling or Kane, hope they blank or underperform and replace them with less popular players among the top five such as Arnautovic, Aubameyang or Salah.

Significantly, perhaps, Kosta has already made two transfers ahead of Sunday’s deadline – the only member of the top five to move into the market and spend points so far.

There’s no question that, while the major Premier League issues are all but settled ahead of Sunday’s contests, the ten matches will give us a nail-biting finish in FPL.

We’ll be tracking the progress throuhgout the day and declaring the winner on Sunday evening. Best of luck to all involved in the title battle.