FPL Question Time – Richarlison replacements, City midfield dilemma and differentials

Our panel of Fantasy Premier League managers are back to answer more questions, this time ahead of Gameweek 4.

We may have one Gameweek 3 match left to play, with Manchester United hosting Tottenham Hotspur in Monday Night Football, but there are still plenty of talking points.

That includes who managers should replace the suspended Richarlison (£6.7m) with, the dilemma of the Manchester City midfield and whether or not we should be looking to differentials yet.

Once again, we had an overwhelming response to our request for questions. Unfortunately, we can only answer a handful each week but keep your queries coming in for the rest of the season.

Here’s a reminder of who is on the panel for your Gameweek 4 Question Time:

Chief #FPL Manager – This man has finished inside the top one percent six times in his career as a Fantasy manager and is one of the biggest influencers in the FPL Twitter-sphere.

Ben McNair – Australian FPL manager Ben has four finishes inside the top 5,000 so far and is an expert in all things metrics-related.

Az – Finished in the top 1,000 last season and is a regular on the ScoutCast and Scout Picks article.

QUESTION ONE – CHIEF

Should I sell Richarlison for the two Gameweeks he’s suspended or bench him? And if I sell him, which players are the best replacement options?

Chief: “I think it makes sense to sell Richarlison before Gameweek 4, rather than benching him. His straight red card on Saturday means that he’s due to receive a three-game ban, which means he won’t be available for Premier League selection until 23rd September.

“I have no doubt that his price will drop more than once over the next fortnight as FPL managers look to fill a key attacking void in their teams.

“In terms of a replacement, two names spring to mind.

Roberto Pereyra is viable as he has scored three goals in three matches but he has some tricky upcoming matches.

“With that said, the fixture run seems more generous for Theo Walcott and he’s also racked up three attacking Fantasy returns, despite having created fewer chances and having fewer shots on goal than the Watford man since Gameweek 1.”

QUESTION TWO – BEN MCNAIR

Is it worth getting in players who have really low ownership to try and make up lost points over first three weeks? What do you look for with these poorly owned players? Do you take risk before form and favourable fixtures?

Ben: “Ignore ownership. Ignore overall ownership. Ignore ownership in your forum/social media bubble. Whatever deficit you could be facing after three Gameweeks is easily recoverable over the remaining 35. Get the players you think will score the most points. Other managers will make mistakes. The ‘template’ will change over time. Play like you’re in front.

“When considering the rank impact of a ‘differential’ relative to a ‘template player’ with slightly higher expected points, think of a bell curve with an average just to the left of zero. Don’t let your eyes be lit up by the shiny area under the curve to the right of zero, which represents a lower-than-50% chance of a ranking boost, without sober recognition of the larger area to the left of zero, which represents a greater-than-50% chance of a ranking tumble. This also makes for great chat at dinner parties.

“Differentials can be fun, but, if you’re interested in results alone, I don’t think there’s much of a case for getting them until after Gameweek 30. Make your peace with having highly-owned heavy hitters, because if you don’t have the leader of the captain poll in most weeks, you’re in for a train wreck of a season.”

QUESTION THREE – AZ

Last year it was worth having a Man City midfielder even if they missed the odd game. Given Guardiola’s diversity of choice, is it best, in fact, to avoid completely and go for two at the back with Aguero up-front?

Az: “For the first part of this question, I really don’t think we have the wealth of options that it would seem from the City midfield.

“Mahrez and Sane are both premium priced players who do not currently have the backing of Pep, so are automatically out, as while we could potentially handle a premium priced City player who misses the odd game, nothing from the start of the season suggests that these two will be first XIers anytime soon.

“That leaves Sterling and the two Silvas as our main considerations.

“Sterling seems likely to play most games, but his price tag puts me off hugely and, while I think he has a part to play in our seasons, other premium-priced options (Salah, Hazard, Mané, Aguero) are more appealing.

“Bernardo Silva seems to be a victim of his own versatility, we never quite know where he is going to play but for 7.6, I think you can make a case for including him, just don’t expect to see him set the world alight.

“I think Peps favourite, David Silva, seems a fantastic option though, and for 8.5 I think he could be a set and forget in your midfield as he seems likely to play most games and showed against Huddersfield that he can run the show and pull all the strings in De Bruynes absence.

“I think you can also make a case for considering Gündogan at 5.5. He may not be a guaranteed starter but when he does play, does take set pieces and does have a good eye for goal. For the price, he may be worth the risk.

“I am not personally a fan of doubling up at the back with City, 5.5 just seems too much to spend on a goalkeeper, especially when you consider how well the premium priced defenders are scoring.

“Ederson has barely any chance of getting any bonus, makes few saves and I do wonder about City’s clean sheet potential with their chopping and changing of the backline.

“A cheap goalkeeper and a premium defender (such as Alonso) wins out over Ederson and a sub £6.0m defender for me.

“An expensive keeper also leaves you quite inflexible, and I feel like FPL is in total flux at the moment, so being able to change with the times is so important and every million is so valuable.”

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