Don’t Look Back in Anger

More than half of the season has gone, and the FA cup break offers the chance to reflect on my team, my position in my leagues, and to plan a way forward.

Reflecting is quite painful, after smashing all my private leagues in the 2017/18 season, this year is quite different. Two factors have made me fall behind, one being consistently bad captain choices and the other being a lack of Mo Salah. I know, what was I thinking! I took too long freeing up enough money to buy him, by which time everybody above me already owned him. I was too late.

I have no choice now but to take risks, look for differentials and to cross my fingers.

Mo Salah is the top scorer this season and last season. What scares me most is that he was scoring endless points whilst appearing to not be playing that well and looking rather downbeat. He is now scoring for fun and smiling whilst doing it. I am afraid, very afraid, but this is my strategy and I’m sticking to it.

Reflecting on Mo as the top scorer made me think back to the good old days, to 2017/18. Class is permanent, so which other 17/18 big hitters could I look at to rescue my season?

Position       Player                    2017/18 Total points   Current ownership

1                   Mo Salah                  303                                50.3%
2                   Raheem Sterling     229                                11%
3                   Harry Kane              217                                14.6%
4                   Kevin De Bruyne    209                                 4%
5                   Christian Eriksen   199                                 7.4%
6                   Riyad Mahrez         195                                 2%
7                   Jamie Vardy            183                                 4.2%
8                   Roberto Firmino    181                                 22.4%
9                   Leroy Sane              179                                 17.4%
10                 Heung-Min Son      178                                 4.1%

Can any of these save me?

I’m not convinced by fishing in the Spurs pond. With Kane out injured and Son announcing he “felt physically empty” at the Asian cup, now is a difficult time for the men from White Hart Lane. I might also avoid Eriksen, despite the attractively low 7.4% ownership. Leicester appear to be in freefall so Vardy doesn’t seem too attractive. My private leagues are full of Sane and Sterling, Mahrez is too risky for game time and I already have Bobby Firmino.

So, who’s left….. Kevin De Bruyne, that’s who! 2017/18 saw him score 8 goals and 18 assists, picking up 25 bonus points along the way. Having spent most of the season out with knee ligament damage, he bossed the FA Cup game against Burnley. A long-range goal and an assist led to a standing ovation, Man of the Match and a hint that he may well be back to his best. With a lowly 4% ownership this could be the perfect time for him to force himself back in to the starting line up to be the key figure in City’s fight for the title.

I usually pick players largely based on data, but with De Bruyne there is a lack of data as he’s hardly played this year. Playing 90 minutes for the first time this season in the last league game in the 3-0 win at Huddersfield, he only scored 3 points due to playing and getting a clean sheet. Not much there to encourage the 9.7 million spend on him. Maybe he was just warming up though in that game and his FA Cup performance should be enough to make the signing.

Man City also have a blank gameweek 27 after their DGW25. So, it’s only a risk worth taking if you have enough cover in your team elsewhere. As with all Man City players though, the question is, will he play but also where will he play?

It is certainly worth considering what position Guardiola intends to deploy De Bruyne for the rest of the season. Will he play in a deep lying midfield role as happened against Burton Albion, which could mean he rotates with Ferdanino. Or will he fight to replace one of the Silva’s?

Do gameweeks 24, 25, and 26 lend themselves to heavy point scoring?

29 Jan       24         Newcastle (A)

03 Feb       25         Arsenal (H)

06 Feb       25         Everton (A)

10 Feb       26         Chelsea (H)

All games are must wins for Man City if they are to rein in Liverpool. Rafa will try his best to keep Newcastle compact to help his old team. Arsenal are looking leaky at back and Chelsea look downbeat. So, if he plays, these could be fruitful games.

Man City are still in four competitions, making rotation risk high.

Decisions, decisions. I predict he’ll do well, but Salah will do better, but as I can’t buy Salah and I have nothing to lose, buying De Bruyne could reap benefits.

The gameweek 27 blank and the risk of rotation though might be too big a risk though.

What do you think of KDB as an option? Is Salah essential?