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Differentials

Injuries uncover budget differentials for Double Gameweek 35

As we come to the business end of the season, one last opportunity presents itself to score 100+ points in a matter of days and to ultimately gain lost ground in mini-leagues through Double Gameweek 35.

With the exception of Arsenal, none of the top six teams has what I would consider reasonable back-to-back games during this period.

It makes it all the more important to look out for those differentials that can provide an extra edge.

Here are three low-owned players that may be of interest to you…


Nacho Monreal

Price: £5.4m

Ownership: 1.3%

DGW35 fixtures: Crystal Palace (home) | Wolves (away)

There is no denying that Arsenal have struggled defensively this season. They only kept their first away clean sheet in the league on Monday night (the last team to do so) and that was against a 10-man Watford team.

However, things are beginning to click with their backline after registering three clean sheets in their last four games. They missed Laurent Koscielny for most of the season which meant that at times they struggled with a makeshift defence, but now that he has re-established himself in the side, they are making improvements.

Nacho Monreal (£5.4m) has been an ever-present for the majority of this calendar year. Although his offensive prowess has not yielded much in the way of attacking returns this season, he did score five goals and two assists in the 2017/18 campaign.

One thing of note compared to last year is that Monreal is getting more of his touches on average in the final third (20% v 15.5%), which shows that he is still able to reach the right places and in turn it underpins his four attacking returns since August. The Spaniard is more than capable of adding to that tally before the end of the season.

As for Arsenal’s next two opponents, Crystal Palace have only scored three goals at the Emirates since February 2014 and Wolves are averaging less than a goal per game from Gameweek 30.

Both of these reasons, combined with Arsenal’s recent defensive form makes Monreal viable even if Arsenal’s European commitments are due to continue into May.



Abdoulaye Doucouré

Price: £5.9m

Ownership: 2.8%

DGW35 Fixtures: Huddersfield (away) | Southampton (home)

Abdoulaye Doucouré (£5.9m) has been flying under the radar this season and it’s a surprise that his ownership is so low.

The Watford midfielder is one of the highest FPL point scorers in 2018/19 among those in his position that are priced at £6.0m or below.

Doucouré’s heatmaps for the 2016/17 campaign (left) and 2018/19 season (right)

Just from his heatmap alone, you can see how much of a box-to-box midfielder he really is compared to the role he fulfilled in his first campaign in English football.

It is possible that the first impressions he gave off back in the 2016/17 season have stuck with some FPL managers who may not realise how advanced he is now actually playing.

Doucouré has had three shots on target in his last four games, two of which were converted into goals, although he didn’t score for the first 14 Gameweeks.

With Deeney suspended and questions over the fitness of Deulofeu and Pereyra, I expect Doucouré to step up again.

Of course, he seldom starts in a traditional attacking midfield role which is a cause for concern, but he is venturing into the penalty box quite often.

Do not underestimate his importance to Watford’s overall gameplay.

The Hornets’ are playing one of their Double Gameweek 35 matches away from home, the other at Vicarage Road.

Their upcoming opponents have conceded a combined total of 56 goals in 17 Huddersfield home matches and 16 Southampton road-trips since August. I would expect Hornets to score against each of them and given Doucouré is the most likely to start both matches, he feels the Watford asset with the lowest risk attached to them for this Double Gameweek.

Fernando Llorente

Price: £5.1m

Ownership: 0.9%

DGW35 Fixture: Manchester City (away) | Brighton (home)

If there’s one thing we’ve learnt over the last seven days it’s that Tottenham don’t have to rely solely on Harry Kane for their goals.

Mauricio Pochettino’s men have scored seven goals in their last two games.

Fernando Llorente (£5.1m) was involved in two of those goals, which is significant considering that for most of the season he’s effectively been a utility player.

He’s only mustered 13 goals in 58 competitive appearances for Tottenham but you can’t expect much else from a player that doesn’t regularly start in the Premier League.

If his short stint at Swansea was anything to go by, it shows the Llorente can score a goal on average almost every other game in England’s top flight.

Furthermore, in his last string of Premier League starts between Gameweek 23 and 26, the veteran forward recorded a goal and three assists.

The only concern is that even with Kane out he isn’t guaranteed to start as shown on Wednesday night with his game-changing substitute appearance.

It will be interesting to see how Tottenham will play against Man City in a matter of a few days.

This match, as well as their second match against Brighton, are key for their Champions’ League aspirations next season.

With Kane highly unlikely to be involved in Double Gameweek 35 (or the rest of the season for that matter), Llorente is the ideal budget attacking asset from a top-five team.

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920 Comments Post a Comment
  1. dee_top
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Cap:
    A) Sterling
    B) Kun
    C) Jimmy

    1. Magpies4ever
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Jimmy

    2. Ohh1454
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      A

    3. RN - Laca 1-1 Liverpool 03/…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      What's up with these captaincy posts topping pages?

      I'm triple captaining Lacazette

      1. CRO KLOPP
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Who is Lacazette?

        1. RN - Laca 1-1 Liverpool 03/…
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Top 3 striker in the premier league

          1. Kim Jong Kün
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 3 days ago

            Why is he then, among the top 15 goal scorers, 9th in goals, 6th in assists, 10th in goals/min, 8th in assists/min, 7th in combined G+A/min? Just seems weird for a top 3 striker in the league.

  2. Magpies4ever
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    A) Llorente and Redmond
    B) Wilson and Højbjerg

    Any thoughts appreciated

    1. Ohh1454
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      A

    2. Yank Revolution
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Wilson and Redmond

  3. Ohh1454
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Is Jota going to play both games ? Think I'll stick the TC on him

    1. Miles105
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Risky af but could pay off big time

    2. Magpies4ever
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Risky but could pay off nicely, may get benched for 1 game

      1. Ohh1454
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 3 days ago

        That's the worry but the same could happen with aguero/Sterling/son etc

    3. Skull And Gnomes 9
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Do It!

    4. RN - Laca 1-1 Liverpool 03/…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      They didn't bring in the TC chip a few years back for people to place it on the portugese Tom Ince

      1. Boss Hogg
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        That's Helder Costa surely?!

        1. Ohh1454
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 3 days ago

          That's what I was thinking lol

    5. The 12th Man
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Go on do it. You’ll be a hero if it pays off.
      If it doesn’t it’s only one extra score missed out on.

      1. Ohh1454
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Chasing so might aswell have a feeling he'll do alright

        1. Miles105
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 3 days ago

          You cant not do it now!

  4. Brosstan
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    So now it's bannable on here to call out laughable suggestions such as 'Jimenez will score on average 10+ points this game week'? Mods capping Jimenez I guess...

    1. RN - Laca 1-1 Liverpool 03/…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      It's 2019, people find ways to get offended.

    2. Skull And Gnomes 9
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      We can't express ourselves anymore, unless we are a mushroom growing in a rainbow garden.

  5. Boss Hogg
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Ings or Gray?

    1. Marc OverMata
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      . Gray this gw, ings after that

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Ings, can play him rest of season

    3. Union_Jacks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Gray

  6. Marc OverMata
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Camarasa+vardy > Hughes+aguero -8?

    Yes or no?

  7. The Royal Robin
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Anything worth a hit here? (£2.6 itb)

    Alisson
    Doherty VVD Kola
    (C) Sterling Eriksen Son Mane
    (V) Jiminez Rondon Wilson

    Ryan Pereira Camarasa Rudiger

  8. Boss Hogg
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Kolasinac... how many games does he start this gw?

    a. 0/2
    b. 1/2
    c. 2/2

    1. The Royal Robin
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      I was just wondering the same tbh. We'll probably be lucky if he starts 1 of them.

    2. balint84
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      c

    3. Prawnsandwich
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Prefer Koscielny, 3 goals in his last 7 starts, likes baps if a cs, and should be nailed for both games

  9. OneDennisBergkamp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Thoughts on Gray for a punt this GW?

    1. All Out of Mounie
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Like minds

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Gray area... might not be too much Success there

    3. Tsparkes10
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Could be decent and wouldn't mind benching him afterwards as cheap. Probs worth it tbh

    4. TheDragon
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      It’s a punt but I’m going for it - believe

  10. All Out of Mounie
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Anyone else with BB left and realizing this is one of the last, if not the last week, to use it?

    I'd need to take a hit to field all 15 with Haz and Deeney... worth it?

    Got 0 itb and no FT left... thinking about Deeney to Gray or Ings and just hoping for Haz to start.

    1. Miles105
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Haz will start IMO

  11. Tsparkes10
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Lukaku or Vardy for this gw?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Vardy

    2. balint84
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      luke

  12. yer old da
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Duffy > Monreal/Kolasinac worth a minus 4?

    1. balint84
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      do it

  13. ZAWAd25
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Eriksen + Dunk + Deeney >>> Moura + TAA + (Wilson/Rashford) ?

    Only way to get rid of Dunk and Deeney is to downgrade Eriksen

    1. The 12th Man
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Those are the 3 I’m taking out too.
      Only for Bertrand/Yoshida,Redmond,Firmino

    2. TheDragon
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      -8? That’s a lot

  14. Colby
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Martial owners - are you losing patience. Is he one of the players Solskjaer said needed ‘a reality check (as to where they were in terms of performances)? Will he play in the two games this week?

    1. RN - Laca 1-1 Liverpool 03/…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      People are too harsh on Martial imo because he's not English - his stats over the years are far better than Rashford but he seems to get a pass

      1. Colby
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        I appreciate your thoughts. He is an undoubted talent but he just looks disinterested in a lot of games.

        1. Prawnsandwich
          1 month, 3 days ago

          hes still capable of producing something from nothing, the assist for Pogbas penalty, goal and assist in his last few games, has scored well against top six

          So even if he starts one and gets half an hour in another could get decent returns

      2. Brosstan
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Agree. But he does seem like he's not getting out his full potential.

  15. RN - Laca 1-1 Liverpool 03/…
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    After playing the full 90 minutes in a gruelling game against City, some people think Son will start against City and Brighton in the space of 6 days.

    Thankfully Pochettino is a world class manager who knows better

  16. The Royal Robin
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    How many games are we expecting Sterling to start?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      1 or 2

      1. The Royal Robin
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        I reckon the former.

    2. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      he will play a part in all the games. PL is all thats left now.

    3. Prawnsandwich
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Comparing Son vs Sterling for captaincy....

      Both similar form, Son scored 3 vs city, suspended from CL so good chance of starting both games

      Sterling integral to City, out of Europe, difficult fixtures, you would think Pep would want strongest selection out for both games to focus on league...

      1. Prawnsandwich
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Son edging it for me at moment due to BHA, still chance of rest, but you would think Eriksen / Moura more likely to be rested, with Sons suspension

  17. La Roja
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Is this worth -4?

    Hazard Vardy ➡ Aguero Moura

    1. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      yep

    2. Sap
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 3 days ago

      No

    3. Miles105
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Think Haz could haul again this week

  18. g40steve
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Been out all day any injury updates lads?

  19. Colby
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Are people bringing Llorente in because he’s likely to start against Brighton?

    1. Sap
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Because he’s cheap

  20. Boss Hogg
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Probably on my own here but I'm keeping Duffy this week and I think he'll get points too. Not defensive points obviously, but I fancy him to score at least one goals over the dgw. Sell at your peril!

    1. Rash
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      If I keep I'll be happy as long as it ain't minus points

    2. V-2 Schneiderlin
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      if he scores this forum will go nuts

    3. HMC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      I’d only consider keeping cause they play NEW after but leaning towards selling myself. Likely to get rid off him for final 2 games anyway

  21. Rash
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    My latest plan;

    This week Duffy deeney to yoshi llorente

    Which frees up funds to do eriksen kdb to moura Salah next week.

    Good plan?

  22. V-2 Schneiderlin
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    A. Valery or
    B. Yoshida ?

    1. V-2 Schneiderlin
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      first to 5 - all responders win good karma

    2. Johnny 8
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Yoshi

      1. V-2 Schneiderlin
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        thanks good luck to you this GW

    3. Boss Hogg
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Yoshi.

      Which one is the good Kamara again? Chris?

      1. V-2 Schneiderlin
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Ha!
        Good luck to you this GW

  23. Manani
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    crazy to go Camarasa > Hojberg for (-4)??

    feels like if I get Redmond, I will be wasting a lot of money as he will be benched for rest of season anyway

  24. Clarity
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Cathcart or Masina?