Spot the Differential

Three FPL differentials who carry points potential over the Christmas period

Whenever we draw closer to the midpoint of a Fantasy Premier League season, a standard template team tends to emerge.

This, in turn, means that it becomes more difficult to make up ground in our mini-leagues and places more importance on having a differential or two in our starting line-ups who can make a considerable impact.

In fact, last Gameweek saw three of the top seven FPL points-scorers of the round having ownership of 5% or less.

Rest assured, there’s still time to find some hidden gems. These players can be key assets, especially during this time of the season when there is a short turnaround time between games.

With that said, here are three low-owned players that may be of interest to you over the next four Gameweeks:

Lucas Moura

  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £7.0m
  • GW18-21 fixtures: CHE | BHA | nor | sou

At this moment in time, when it comes to Tottenham Hotspur’s attacking assets from a Fantasy perspective, you will automatically think of Harry Kane (£10.9m), Son Heung-min (£10.1m) and Dele Alli (£8.7m). However, Lucas Moura (£7.0m) is flying under the radar and rivalling that trio for attacking returns.

Under Jose Mourinho he has become revitalised, having scored three goals in his last three Premier League appearances where he has appeared for more than 70 minutes.

Among midfielders priced at £7.0m or less, he is currently ranked joint-third for goals scored, which is all the more remarkable when considering that he has only played three full league matches since August.

While he has become a regular starter of late, it can’t be ignored that he is often substituted, as was the case with his playing time under Mourinho’s predecessor.

But when we quantify Moura’s output we can see that he is averaging an attacking return for every 120 minutes played since August, which is more than respectable for an inexpensive midfielder.

You would expect him to feature in all four matches over the festive period (whether it be from the start or as a substitute), which includes fixtures against teams that have struggled for clean sheets this season.

With Moura’s form, you wouldn’t put it past him to add to his Fantasy returns, even if he’s prone to missing out on bonus points.

Neal Maupay

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.8m
  • GW18-21 fixtures: SHU | tot | BOU | CHE

With three goals in his last three games, it’s still somewhat surprising that Neal Maupay (£5.8m) has single-digit ownership levels.

He may not have featured regularly at the start of the season but it’s fair to say that he’s now established himself as Brighton’s main centre-forward.

Seven goals in 17 appearances to date is more than respectable for a player that hadn’t played in the Premier League before August.

His credentials as a budget forward option are also commendable. During the last two Gameweeks, Maupay is ranked second for attempts on goal and joint-second for penalty area touches among forwards priced at £6.0m or less. In fact, he’s had more goal attempts than the likes of Tammy Abraham (£8.0m) and Raul Jimenez (£7.5m) since Gameweek 16.

To add to his viability, three of Brighton’s next four league games will be at home.

The Seagulls’ home record since Gameweek 1 is only 13th-best in the league at the moment, with Graham Potter’s side scoring less than two goals per game at the Amex.

But we shouldn’t read too much into that, as Brighton are, in fact, getting better with their finishing, having scored ten league goals in their last five matches on the south coast.

Maupay presents a very good opportunity to invest in a player that is performing well and doesn’t cost over the odds. He may not score in all of the Seagulls’ festive matches but the chances are that, when Albion do find the back of the net, he will most likely have some sort of involvement.

James Tomkins

  • FPL ownership: 0.5%
  • Price: £5.0m
  • GW18-21 fixtures: new | WHU | sou | nor

With the exception of a handful of must-haves in FPL this season, consistent returns from defenders have been somewhat lacking since August.

But with four Fantasy returns in his last four games, it’s surprising to think that James Tomkins (£5.0m) is still owned by fewer than 1% of FPL managers.

Tomkins has started every match for Crystal Palace from Gameweek 9 onwards, having missed the start of the season due to injury.

His form is impressive at the moment, with 85% of his points having been scored since Gameweek 14.

Crystal Palace’s next four games will be against teams currently placed in the bottom half of the table, which further enhances their chances of additional clean sheets in the short term.

However, it also remains to be seen whether Crystal Palace can cope over the busy period when stalwarts like Patrick van Aanholt (£5.5m) are injured.

Furthermore, the chances are that most seasoned FPL managers have already signed Martin Kelly (£4.4m) at a cheaper price, which makes Tomkins less appealing (and explains his ownership levels). Understandably, many of us will have a limited desire to double up on the Eagles’ defenders, despite their clean sheet potential of late.

But it can be argued that Tomkins offers slightly more.

Kelly has only registered three attacking Fantasy returns since 2016/17, whereas Tomkins has seven goals and two assists to his name during the same period. Maybe he’s due another goal?

In any case, he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on as one of the best performing budget defenders in FPL at present.

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1,302 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ole Trafford
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Leicester have conceded more than 1goal only once this season....

    1. zotter
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      V Liverpool?

      1. Ole Trafford
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Yeah away at Anfield. Of course if any team could inflict similar damage it’s city. I’m hoping for goals galore with 4 attackers in that game. Just can’t see it happening.

    2. Brosstan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Soon to be 2, but I still dont get those who are capping KDB

      1. Ole Trafford
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Yeah my thoughts also

    3. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      thks

    4. Amey
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Wow

    5. Balls of Steel
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Records are there to be broken... This will be more than 1 goal for City

  2. Niho992
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Bottomed. No reply.

    Really dont know what to do this GW and who to C. 0 FT and 0.9 ITB

    Thoughts?

    Heaton
    Lund-Soy-Tomori-Kelly
    Maddison-Alli-McGin
    Jimenez-Vardy-Kane(C)

    Button-Nakamba-Salah-TAA

    Thinking to do Maddison to Martial for a hit cause United/Leicester fixtures or to sell Tomori but dont like to buy defenders for a hit.

    I will maybe just leave this team and hope for the best.

    Any help would be wonderful. Thx in advance fellas. Cheers

    1. zotter
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Worth selling tomori as he won’t play. Say you get Aurier he will get at least 2 and half pay for that transfer this week and sort you out going forward.

      1. Niho992
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 7 days ago

        How you know he wont play? Zouma was awful and Rudiger is not 100 % fit.

        1. zotter
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          He is injured and confirmed out

          1. zotter
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Sorry my bad. Old news.

            1. zotter
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              I would still sell him though. But your choice

              1. Niho992
                • 1 Year
                2 months, 7 days ago

                I will hold probably

          2. Niho992
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 7 days ago

            He is not. Lamps said he is fine and not flagged anymore

      2. zotter
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Famous last words ! Cue and Chelsea 4-2 win and Aurier yellow !

    2. La Roja
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      I wouldn’t sell Maddison

      1. Niho992
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Thx for reply. What would you do here? Thinking to hold transfer. If i sell Tomori then Rico or someone else who i brought must have 7+ points

        1. La Roja
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          I’d probably do Tomori ➡ Targett

          1. zotter
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            I wouldn’t as he has Heaton

          2. Niho992
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 7 days ago

            I have Heaton already. Think its too much to double Villa defence

            1. La Roja
              • 7 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Rico then

        2. zotter
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          You don’t need it to pay back this week ! Hold tomori given where your minds at!!

          1. Niho992
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Yea but my plan was to do Jimenez to Abraham next GW and need 0.5 at least ITB so thats reason why i cant buy Aurier

    3. Ole Trafford
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      gtg

      1. Niho992
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Thx

  3. Amey
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 7 days ago

    All right, need some advice my friends.

    Last season when i TC Sane in DGW my season went downhill (200k to 700k in 2-3 GW span). So i decided to not do similar things when DGW/bgw are ON.

    This season, BGW. My gut feeling is Vardy ©.
    Is it really stupid ?? 😮

    Don't wanna get punished .....

    Rashford Ings Son Grealish KDB other options.

    Thank you for replying!

    1. zotter
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Hang on. Are you suggesting vardy triple captain this week ?

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 7 days ago

        I'm not
        It's only ©
        Pathetic posting technique

        1. Amey
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 7 days ago

          By me.
          Thanks mate

    2. King Kohli
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Wait for Pool Dgw.
      You have more to lose than gain by playing in sgw imo

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Yes
        I'm looking for ©
        Poor posting style ....

      2. zotter
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        I fear pool dgw might be around ucl time and they have league in bag... been waiting three years for salah Tc!!

        1. zotter
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          Thought did smash it with salah tc last year in single gw!

          1. Amey
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Hudds game.
            Didn't even had him in my team. Mane ©.
            49 from Mane taa robbo still red arrow
            Weird gw that was 😀

            1. zotter
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              I had mane salah robbo. Think I got 84!

              1. Amey
                • 1 Year
                2 months, 7 days ago

                Lol
                It was something else kind of GW

    3. Ole Trafford
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Just don’t do it

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Thanks

        1. Ole Trafford
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          Captain Vardy if you like but I wouldn’t TC

    4. La Roja
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Captaining Vardy never stupid

      Stick with your gut feeling

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Sighh
        Feeling better now 🙂
        Thanks

        1. La Roja
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          I wouldn’t be surprised if he is most captained this GW

          1. Amey
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Really ??
            I mean, I've seen only one guy here other than me. But yes, this is small sample of the whole community

    5. Brosstan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Vardy (C) is a fine pick. City defense is not intimidating at all, they have 0 pace, Vardy could have a field day.

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Thanks bro.
        Appreciate it

    6. Taking the Mkhitaryan
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Vardy captain is fine. Considering it myself

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Thanks.
        Was bit concerned as none of the posters even considering him
        😀

    7. Niho992
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Vardy C is fine but you wont get much if he haul and not lost much if you dont C him this GW. This GW is perfect for a punt

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 7 days ago

        He's a differential © this GW though 😮
        Isn't he ??

        1. Niho992
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 7 days ago

          Idk. Is he ? Most owned player and he will be in top 3 C pick i think

          1. Amey
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 7 days ago

            You're probably right
            Dullard pick then 😉

            1. Trophé Mourinho
              2 months, 7 days ago

              let us know how it goes 😉 None of these people r joining you

              1. Amey
                • 1 Year
                2 months, 7 days ago

                I surely will buddy.
                GL for this GW

                1. Trophé Mourinho
                  2 months, 7 days ago

                  u2

    8. BenjoBD
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      It could be anyone this week. I'm toying with Alli or Grealish. If it's diff captain time it's surely this week. Vardy is as good as anyone as I don't think any of them are hauling.

  4. zotter
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Predictions folks ...

    Everton v Arsenal. 2-1
    Villa v Saints. 2-0
    Bournemouth v Burnley. 2-0
    Brighton v Sheff Utd. 1-1
    Newcastle v Palace. 2-1
    Norwich v Wolves 0-3
    City v Leicester. 1-2
    Watford v Man U. 1-2
    Spurs v Chelsea. 4-1

    1. Amey
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Everton v Arsenal. 2-1
      Villa v Saints. 2-1
      Bournemouth v Burnley. 0-0
      Brighton v Sheff Utd. 2-2
      Newcastle v Palace. 2-1
      Norwich v Wolves 1-1
      City v Leicester. 1-3
      Watford v Man U. 1-3
      Spurs v Chelsea. 2-0

    2. La Roja
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Everton v Arsenal. 3-1
      Villa v Saints. 2-0
      Bournemouth v Burnley. 2-1
      Brighton v Sheff Utd. 2-2
      Newcastle v Palace. 0-1
      Norwich v Wolves 1-2
      City v Leicester. 3-2
      Watford v Man U. 1-3
      Spurs v Chelsea. 3-1

      1. Ole Trafford
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        I’d love this without a palace cs

        1. La Roja
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          I’m an obvious Guaita & Kelly owner 😀

    3. CMB
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Everton vs Arsenal. 2 new coaches, can't predict anything
      Villa Saints. 2-1 can't see Villa keeping a clean sheet
      Bournemouth Burnley. 2-0 agree
      Brighton Sheffield. also agree on the draw
      Newcastle Palace. unpredictable for me, maybe 0-0
      Norwich Wolves. 1-3 there will be goals
      City Leicester. 1-1
      Watford ManU. 0-1, 0-0, 1-1 something low scoring
      Spurs Chelse. unpredictable, maybe less goals than expected

  5. Hits from the Bong
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 7 days ago

    My gut is saying Ings will haul, should I stick or twist?
    1. Rashford+Pulisic to KDB+Ings
    2. Save

    Guaita
    Soyuncu Lundstram Kelly Rico
    Son(C) Alli Pulisic
    Vardy(Vc) Abraham Rashford

    (Button Mane TAA Dendonker)

  6. tyron
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    am i the only one that thinks aguero comes straight back in for jesus?

  7. Shiva_Destroyer
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Anyone with Everton training ground pics? Desperate to know if Digne is fit

  8. NemanjaVidic15
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Pope Gazzaniga
    Lundstrom Rico Kelly (Soyuncu) (Van Dijk)
    Sterling MartialC Grealish Moura (Sterling)
    Vardy Ings Connoly
    1FT 1.5ITB
    1. GTG?
    2. Pope or Gazzaniga?
    3. Vardy -> Kane?

  9. HUATSHOOTER
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 6 days ago

    Abraham out for calvert??

    1. HonestBlatter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 6 days ago

      No keep Tammy