Pro Pundits - Lateriser

How to stop the Mane ‘bad beat’ affecting your FPL season

Fantasy Premier League and the game of Texas Hold’ Em Poker have a lot of similarities.

You’re playing a game of cards throughout the night and there sometimes comes a hand where you have played everything correctly and, statistically, the odds are in your favour.

But then the least probable outcome happens. Your Sadio Mané (£12.5m) Triple Captain goes off injured early. That’s just how the dice rolls sometimes.

In Poker, we call it a ‘bad beat’. Over the course of the night, you have about 150-200 hands to play and there will be times when you do face a bad beat; a statistically unfavourable outcome (more than once in a lot of cases).

What separates the skilled players from the normal players in Poker though are the ones that temperamentally do not get affected by the statistically improbable ‘bad beat’ and continue hammering on with their strategy and trust. Despite a few setbacks along the way, they should end the night with a positive outcome with or without minor adjustments.

Keeping your temperament in control is incredibly important. It’s very easy to go ‘on tilt’ and make a series of low probability, irrational decisions after facing a bad beat.

I was talking to Trigg from the FFS boards while writing this in the morning and he had an important point to make here. As humans, we have a tendency to want instant gratification. We want our money (FPL points) back right away and that sometimes leads to poor decision making.

Clear your head and think again.

Mane, Abraham and Vardy injury updates ahead of FA Cup fourth round weekend

My good friend from the FFS boards, Prophet was telling me about a Serbian saying that when roughly translated in English goes like this – “Mom didn’t blame you for gambling but for trying to dig yourself out of the hole”.

The digging yourself out here means first putting in 100 Euros, then 500 and eventually your house. Tilts are dangerous and we should avoid them. The good Poker players are always looking to hunt and find which of their competitors are going ‘on tilt’ so that they can exploit them for some serious money.

Sometimes, you’re not really lucky throughout the night (or your FPL season) and other nights (seasons) you will be more fortunate than normal. Don’t pay attention to the improbable outcomes. We might not even know about it but we’ve probably made a few ‘statistically stupid’ decisions ourselves that have worked out for the best but it is human tendency to remember only the ones that don’t land on your side of the court.

FPL in some ways is similar. You’re making a skilled decision for an unknown outcome. Arguably, you have more control in Poker but there are similarities. There are factors you control and others you don’t. I wrote an article earlier this season that we are making about 140-150 FPL decisions a season:

  • Initial Team + 2 Wildcards + 1 Free Hit = 4 x 15 = 60
  • 38 Captains = 38
  • 3 Chips = 3
  • 35-55 Transfers throughout the season

Naturally, the FPL chips and your captaincies are your relatively high impact decisions. There is more at stake than normal. But they are still not going to decide your ‘entire’ season. All that has happened with some of the high impact decisions not coming your way is that you have received a ‘bad beat’ in a pot in which you have invested a lot of money. It happens. We’ve seen it over the years and if you want to develop as an FPL/ Poker player, don’t let this affect you, laugh it off, clear your head and continue doing what you are doing.

I’ve faced both sides of the coin very recently. The Jamie Vardy (£9.9m) to Sergio Aguero (£12.0m) captain move which worked out spectacularly (I’ve since sold the Manchester City forward and I’m plotting to get him back). But then, of course, I Triple Captained Mané and that turned out to be quite spectacular in its own right. Just goes to see that no one can really see the future and we’re all playing a game where we’re trying to put ourselves in an advantageous position week on week is all. 

Aguero asking the question of non-owners as De Bruyne ticks over

You have to think of your current position as the starting line. AK, another good friend of mine from the FFS boards says that in Poker, whatever be the case, you have to focus on salvaging your ‘current position’. There is a lot of the game left to be played.  Most of us still have about 50 to 60 decisions remaining in the season. That is about 40% of your decision-making pool. There is a lot you can do to affect that.

  • If you’re ranked at around the 1 million mark right now, 500k is just 37 points ahead. That’s one good differential captaincy in my eyes.
  • If you’re ranked at around 500k right now, 100k is just 59 points ahead right now.
  • If you’re ranked at 100k right now, 10k is only 55 points ahead.

If you look at the game this way, you realize that you can still have the rub of the green, have some decisions working in your way and who knows where you will land at the end of the season.

I’d recommend not looking back at what has already happened; instead, plot further ahead (or just take a break and enjoy the FA Cup football over the weekend) and salvage your current position.

The game is more fun that way. Make yourselves immune to the ‘bad beats’. If you’re far away from your actual goal, experiment with some new strategies for the next season. Re-condition your mind to the changing nature of FPL, or check if your current strategy will take you through this night (season) of FPL Poker and go past the bad beats.

Don’t forget it’s a game that we’re playing for fun based around a sport we watch for enjoyment (supposedly!). Don’t make it anything else. I’m currently sitting at an overall rank of 528 and I definitely intend on having fun with the privileged position I am in. Let’s see where it takes me.

Here’s to no more bad beats.

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1,630 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Tony Martial
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 1 day ago

    Thoughts on the wildcard..?

    Henderson McCarthy

    TAA VVD Lascelles Lundstram C.Taylor*

    KDB Grealish Salah Traore Fleck*

    Aguero Jiminez Wilson* (placeholder for ings)

    0.1 ITB

    Not sure about the ones I have * ?

    Thanks!..

    1. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Holding on to Lundstram because of value? Serious question

      1. Tony Martial
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Yes. Got him @4.0

        Worth holding.? Can get O’Connell/Egan?

        1. Bobby Digital
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Stephens (Sou) rotates nicely with Lascelles.

          1. Tony Martial
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Could be a decent idea actually.

            And could go Pope instead of McCarthy/upgrade C.Taylor?

            But Lund is Lund so I’m not sure.

            1. Bobby Digital
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 1 day ago

              I'm planning to bank the 0.5m profit on Lundstram next week. Could come back and haunt me tho.

  2. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 1 day ago

    Is it better to WC now if team needs it ( probably Mané missing for couple of weeks, Vardy might miss a game, Lundstram Kelly Rico’ s starts all on a “shoogly peg”, Haller punt needs to move on). Or keep team going with few hits over next couple of weeks?

    1. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Always WC whem team needs it imo

    2. Bushwhacker
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Vardy’ll be fine I suspect.

    3. Black Panther
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Is FPL stricter this season regarding your team name? My team name has been changed to 'CHANGE NAME'. Is Fer Fuchs Ake really that offensive?

      1. Tony Martial
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Let me just tell you my friend in my ML has a much worse name..! That isn’t even a bad name.

      2. My heart goes Salalalalah
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Aren't there plenty of teams with that name though? Might be the reason

      3. Brosstan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Change it to SakaMeeLongstaff

        1. toca
            1 month, 1 day ago

            LOL

      4. My heart goes Salalalalah
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Just saw I can afford a Mané, Tammy and Vardy 0.1 drop without losing further profit. 0.6 itb and I'm thinking Tammy to Jimmy. Wait or pull the trigger?

      5. rjcv177
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        To save the WC, a -8 for this:
        Out - soy, mane, vardy
        In - robbo, traore, auba

        1. BERGKOP
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          No

        2. Wolves Ay We
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Maybe cheaper doing it over 2 weeks.

      6. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Mane out for long?

        1. Nailed Jesus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Long isn't nailed 😉

          1. OneTreeTwoStars
              1 month, 1 day ago

              Hahahaha love it

          2. My heart goes Salalalalah
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Long is not a midfielder 😉

            1. pitstop1
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 1 day ago

              He meant Longstaff

              1. Salt'N'Pepe
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 1 day ago

                shaun or matty

          3. Vasqujg
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 20 hours ago

            Is 6 weeks long?

            Might be until February 18...champions league vs Atletico Madrid

        2. The Train Driver
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Savimg my WC for dgw/blank, worked wonders last year..

          1. My heart goes Salalalalah
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Not in my case...

            Could've had at least 40 more points if I played it earlier....

          2. Bobby Digital
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            WC week before DGW, get decent subs and play benchboost DGW.

        3. Iceball
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Aguero and Traore or Jimenez and Son?

          1. King Sheep
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Jimi/Son

          2. Bobby Digital
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Latter

        4. Corgzzzz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Evening everyone I have a four transfer plan over the next three game weeks.....however .....
          Ings > for

          A, Vardy. 
          B. Haller. ( does have Brighton next and currently fit )
          C. Tammy.
          D. Save .........currently on this but Mane, injury also needs looking at have Salah & KDB

          1. Bobby Digital
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Tammy and Vardy might be crocked.. Monitor the situ.

          2. Mortal.Swinbat
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Keep Ings have you even looked at his fixtures?

            1. Bobby Digital
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 1 day ago

              I think he's getting in Ings...

        5. Fook You Phil Jones (FYPJ)
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 1 day ago

          WC Thoughts? Need advice massively:

          Henderson
          TAA//Digne//Baldock
          Grealish//KDB//Salah//Fleck
          Jimi//Firmy//Aguero

          McCarthy//Hayden//Stephens//Williams

          Digne to Cathcart and Fleck to Traore?

          1. Tony Martial
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 1 day ago

            You like Firmino as an option?

            1. Fook You Phil Jones (FYPJ)
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 1 day ago

              With Mane' out I do

        6. Mortal.Swinbat
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Are we all being a bit hasty getting rid of Vardy...? I see the allure of Aguero and Aubameyang, but the value of front 3 Vardy, Jiminez, Ings seems the best for me. I am very tempted to get Aub/Aguero but Vardy will punish people

          1. Bobby Digital
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Low risk high reward moves

          2. g40steve
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Keeping V I J

          3. toca
              1 month, 1 day ago

              If he is OK I'm definitely keeping, he's gonna go back to scoring in no time

            • Dr. Agabuse
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 21 hours ago

              This for me

          4. leo_messi
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            A) Rico and Soyuncu
            B) Williams and Baldock (-4)

            Thanks

            1. Bobby Digital
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 1 day ago

              Depends if you're playing both or no...

              1. leo_messi
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 1 day ago

                I have taa robbo and Lund already

                1. Bobby Digital
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  343 or?

          5. Iceball
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Ryan Button
            TAA Stephens Holgate Lund Söy
            Salah KDB Son Martial Cantwell
            Firmino Jimenez Ings
            No ft. Take a hit or go with it?

            1. Going To Win This Year
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 1 day ago

              Looks like a WC team

          6. Tony Martial
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Best 4.4 million option?

            1. Tony Martial
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 1 day ago

              Defender*

              1. Iceball
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 1 day ago

                Stephens

                1. Tony Martial
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  Anyone else

                  Apart from Lascelles and Stephens?

          7. Wensink
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Mane > Salah before tonight’s price rise?

          8. skins1979
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Advice please on best moves to improve team:

            McCarthy, button
            Airier, Taa, Gomez, Lund, Webster
            Salah, Kdb, martial, Dendoncker, fleck
            Abraham, Vardy, Ings

            2 free transfers and 3.8 in bank

            Thanks

          9. Tony Martial
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Thoughts on this redrafted wildcard?
            Henderson Pope

            TAA VVD Lascelles Stephens Lundstram*

            KDB Grealish Salah Traore Fleck

            Sergio Ings Jiminez

            Thanks!..

            1. Warby84
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 1 day ago

              Well mine is;

              Hendo McCarthy
              Van Dijk TAA Doherty Stevens(SU) Lascelles
              Salah DeBruyne Fleck Grealish Traoré
              Aubameyang Maupay (Placeholder for Ings) Jimenez(So happy to have back!!)

              So very similar, I like yours very much

              1. Tony Martial
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 1 day ago

                Insane team.!

                What’s your thinking behind Doherty?.. because he is very expensive!

                1. Warby84
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  He’s looked really dangerous everytime I watch him, always seems to pop up at the back post.. Was between him and Digne and really need a Differential

              2. K_UN_DE_BRU_YNE
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 1 day ago

                Maupay no double digit haul until now,still you want to punt ?

            2. K_UN_DE_BRU_YNE
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 1 day ago

              Looks good

              1. Tony Martial
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 1 day ago

                Nice. He is very good player!

                You like Maupay?I think I will get a placeholder too.You have great differentials.!

                1. Warby84
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  Maupay has West Ham, I was going for Wilson but chickened out.. Have exact 1.2 and can not see Ings going up...

                2. Warby84
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  Maupay was so close to scoring vs Brighton so unlucky

                  1. Warby84
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    Bournemouth***

                    1. Tony Martial
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 1 day ago

                      I think I may punt on him or Wilson!

                      Thank you 🙂

                      1. Warby84
                        • 4 Years
                        1 month, 1 day ago

                        Wilson has Villa but feels wrong to go for a player so low on confidence, 1G in 18 games is horrendous. So for that reason I will pass, will probably get a brace!!

          10. Soto Ayam
              1 month, 1 day ago

              Can anyone please explain why they think Lund is a rotation risk? He's only started 2 games all season and last week was a midweek game so he might just have been rested?
              isn't it very knee - jerky, seeing as he offers great points return at both ends of the pitch and is the highest points per million player?
              Or am I missing something as I have no intention of getting rid of him?

              1. Warby84
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 1 day ago

                I personally am pretty bored with him, so fancy mixing it up a little

                1. Soto Ayam
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    Now thats the kinda logic I like. Who would you sell for? I do understand flipping him to generate more cash.

                    1. Warby84
                      • 4 Years
                      1 month, 1 day ago

                      I’ve moved to Enda Stevens...

                    2. Warby84
                      • 4 Years
                      1 month, 1 day ago

                      See WC team above

                2. Iceball
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  Keeping. Now very good fixtures

                3. @fpl_phenom
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  The thought is that Besic has taken his place... im holding for now ... iv a lot of money tied up in him ... i dont believe hes been dropped

                  1. Soto Ayam
                      1 month, 23 hours ago

                      Ah I see, that's the logic behind it. I guess we'll have to monitor and see how it pans out

                4. jia you jia you
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  Mane to KDB(-4) looks fine right?
                  (bench is Williams, Hayden and Stephens with a horrible fixture!)

                  1. Iceball
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    Its fine

                    1. jia you jia you
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 3 Years
                      1 month, 1 day ago

                      will have triple City for Spurs and the for WHU the GW after... could be gold or could be Pepped!

                5. K_UN_DE_BRU_YNE
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  Seriously want Couple of suggestions:
                  Poor team with poor Rank force me to early wildcard.
                  A) Baldock or Stevens
                  B) VVD or Robbo
                  C) Mahrez or Grealish
                  D) Kun or auba

                  1. Tony Martial
                    • 1 Year
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    Stevens
                    VVD
                    Grealish
                    Kun

                  2. dunas_dog
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    Stevens VVD Mahrez Aubameyang

                  3. Warby84
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    Stevens
                    VD
                    Grealish
                    Aubameyang

                6. Salt'N'Pepe
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  Should I WC:

                  Ryan
                  Lundstram TAA VVD Robertson
                  Grealish KDB Maddison Martial
                  Vardy Jiminez

                  Button Tosun Traore Dunk

                  1. Warby84
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    I would personally

                  2. K_UN_DE_BRU_YNE
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    Nope teems look fine m punty as well

                7. Squib
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  Would really appreciate persuasion either way with this potential WC team. Thanks.
                  Pope McCarthy
                  TAA Lund Lascelles Cathcart Ward/Tangana
                  Salah KDB Grealish Fleck Traore
                  Auba Aguero Ings

                  1. dunas_dog
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    In my view choose one of Aubameyang or Aguero and get Jiménez then get Henderson over Pope and double Liverpool defence.

                    1. K_UN_DE_BRU_YNE
                      • 2 Years
                      1 month, 1 day ago

                      This

                8. skins1979
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  best moves to improve team:

                  McCarthy, button
                  Airier, Taa, Gomez, Lund, Webster
                  Salah, Kdb, martial, Dendoncker, fleck
                  Abraham, Vardy, Ings

                  2 free transfers and 3.8 in bank

                  Thanks

                  1. dunas_dog
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    Tammy to Jiménez and carry unless Vardy out

                9. Purse83
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  RMWCT please - Looking at 15 ‘starters’ to counter dread of using too early and to help Bench Boost with a few differentials:

                  Hendo McCarthy
                  TAA VVD Stephens Lascelles Soy
                  Salah KDB Grealish Traoré St Maxim
                  Ings Auba Jimi

                  1. dunas_dog
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    Very good. Similar to one I am considering except I am presently on Fleck Stevens over St Maxim Soyünücü

                    1. Tony Martial
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 1 day ago

                      You have made me consider St.Maximin.

                    2. Purse83
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 1 day ago

                      Cheers - I’ve pulled the trigger!

                      Like your moves too, just seems that St Maxim runs riot everytime he plays (admittedly a headless chicken at times) like Traoré not too long ago and maybe he’ll haul.

                10. AK_FC
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 1 day ago

                  Is Mane confirmed out for a spell?

                  1. dunas_dog
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    Not yet

                11. venitol
                    1 month, 1 day ago

                    Thoughts on my WC?

                    Henderson Martin
                    TAA Robertson Cathcart Lunds Kelly
                    Salah KDB Martial Perez Cantwell
                    Auba Ings Greenwood

                    Not 100% on Robertson or Kelly at the moment

                    1. Warby84
                      • 4 Years
                      1 month, 1 day ago

                      Kelly martial Greenwood and Cantwell, not keen.. Try to get Jimenez in somehow, by downgrading Martial and Cantwell? Martin is non playing keeper so try move him up to McCarthy(4.4)?

                      1. K_UN_DE_BRU_YNE
                        • 2 Years
                        1 month, 1 day ago

                        This

                      2. venitol
                          1 month, 21 hours ago

                          Thanks

                    2. K_UN_DE_BRU_YNE
                      • 2 Years
                      1 month, 1 day ago

                      How nailed is Williams ?
                      I am 0.1 off in having Stevens so
                      Downgrading lascelles > Williams worth ?
                      Basically

                      Lundstram + lascelles
                      Or,
                      Stevens + Williams

                      Also Other option is Stephens > c.taylor

                      Which one is best ?

                    3. Monya Meow Meow
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 1 day ago

                      Which of these players is more likely to be out for longer term?

                      1) Vardy
                      2) Tammy
                      3) Mane

                      Only have 1 FT and don't feel like WC yet thanks.

                      1. Bushwhacker
                          1 month, 21 hours ago

                          Have to wait till Friday to knos. Likely Mane.

                      2. Tony Martial
                        • 1 Year
                        1 month, 1 day ago

                        Best 4.3 million defender that isn’t Lascelles.?

                        1. dunas_dog
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 4 Years
                          1 month, 1 day ago

                          Charlie Taylor or Joel Ward

                          1. Dr. Agabuse
                            • 7 Years
                            1 month, 21 hours ago

                            Uu Ward

                        2. melvinmbabazi
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 6 Years
                          1 month, 20 hours ago

                          Williams

                      3. @fpl_phenom
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 4 Years
                        1 month, 1 day ago

                        I hate that salah is rising and I dont know how serious the Mane injury is!

                        its forcing me to make moves on my wildcard in not comfortable with ... hes definitly done his hamstring though right? surely 3 weeks recovery right ?