Pro Pundits - Lateriser

How I am realigning my FPL thinking with more penalties on offer this season

It has been such a strange start to the 2020/21 Fantasy Premier League season and there is a lot riding on Gameweek 4.

Except for a few usual suspects coming to the fore, most of Gameweek 3 seemed like an anomaly rather than the norm, although it is still very early in the campaign.

But keeping that in mind, I will continue to advise Fantasy managers to not to panic and keep calm. Remember, last week was probably the ideal kind of time to have a bad Gameweek given the low average.

I Wildcarded prior to Gameweek 3, scored a measly 35 points and currently hold an overall rank of 4.8 million. That said, I’m not particularly worried (yet) and those that Wildcarded recently should judge their new squad after at least its first five Gameweeks, not just one round.

But how long can I go without addressing the elephant in the room?

I am, of course, talking about penalties.

For those that aren’t aware, the Premier League was asked to be stricter and more in line with the other leagues for handball rules this season, which has resulted in considerably more spot-kicks than usual. Of the 20 awarded so far, six have been for handball.  

But, we have already seen, after the chaos last week, that referees have been asked to be a little more lenient when it comes awarding penalties for handball from here on.

Under the new instructions, referees have been asked to consider the proximity of the player to the ball, his arm position and the amount of time he has to react.

This means that a player is likely to be penalised for handball if the arm is out from the body or if the ball has travelled a distance.

On top of that, if a player is using their arm for balance or protection then a penalty is less likely to be given, whereas a player’s arm blocking a direct shot on goal is more likely to be given. If a player has his arm above the shoulder, the penalty will still be awarded.

Given these new guidelines, the penalties awarded against Victor Lindelöf (£5.0m), Matt Doherty (£5.9m) and Joel Ward (£4.5m) would not likely have been awarded but the ones against Neal Maupay (£6.5m) and Eric Dier (£5.0m) would have still stood.

Dale Johnson from ESPN told us in his tweet that top leagues like the La Liga and the Serie A got awarded around 30 to 40 penalties more than the Premier League last season and, while I do expect the number to rise in England this year, I don’t think it will be drastic.

What this tells me is I need to realign my thinking with regards to penalties. While earlier I used thinking of a player being on a penalty as an added ‘bonus’, now I want to mentally give that player at least 10 to 15% more weightage in my head when making transfer and captaincy decisions.

However, that does not necessarily mean I opt for players like Callum Wilson (£6.4m) in my team because Newcastle are just not showing enough going forward in open play at the moment.

It also does not mean that I stop myself from picking players like Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) and Sadio Mané (£11.9m) in my team because that would mean giving way more attention to penalties than you should.

It just means that when debating Mohamed Salah (£12.1m) and Mané in my headm and if it’s a 50/50 call, the penalties will swing it for me this season. This wasn’t always the case for me last season.

Also, the only real predictability we have for these ‘random’ handballs for a team is if a team is spending a lot of time in the opposition attacking area.

My guess is that the penalty box touches of the final third touches a team has could be a good indicator of the ability of that team to win a penalty due to a handball.

This is in addition to the teams having players with the ability to draw fouls and win penalties because not much has changed with regards to the rules there.

Given these two factors, outside of the obvious candidates from Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United, I’m also looking at the likes of Richarlison (£8.0m) and Michail Antonio (£6.3m) more closely.

That’s enough on the subject of penalties and I for one hope that the Fantasy Premier League does not turn into the Fantasy Penalty League as it would take a lot of fun and eye-test assessment out of the game.

Another thing I want to talk about is that if you’re not really sure about what transfer to make this Gameweek, there’s no better time to save a transfer than the international break. As my co-host and fellow Pro Pundit Zøphar pointed out on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire, a lot of the national teams are playing three games in this period, so an extra transfer could be handy given the potential ‘injuries’ and in today’s world, ‘infections’.

Also, one more note with regards to teams like Manchester United and Manchester City, who have had a staggered pre-season and are visibly behind on sharpness when compared to other teams, I urge patience. This gap will only become thinner as more and more time passes and we should see all teams on similar levels of ‘fitness’ in the next two odd Gameweeks.

At the time of writing, I’m wondering whether to ship off Timo Werner (£9.4m) for the likes of Danny Ings (£8.4m) or Richarlison. Southampton have a really good fixture this Gameweek but the three games after don’t fill me with confidence.

Normally I wouldn’t worry too much about fixtures when it comes to Southampton but they are in the bottom half of the table for shots in the box so far and Ings had only a single shot against Burnley.

This, combined with Ralph Hasenhüttl’s quotes this week of taking a ‘defence first’ and the international break after this is making me lean towards banking my transfer. This could change before Saturday though.

“It wasn’t a good start to the season but we have focused our work this week on the defence and it was fantastic to see how much they had invested today.” – Ralph Hasenhüttl

In addition, I’ve got a close eye on Spurs assets who have good fixtures (Jose Mourinho has got his team playing well) and maybe some returning Manchester City strikers post the international break.

I’ve also got to bring Salah back in my team really soon but can’t sell my Manchester City midfielders before the Leeds game, which has the potential to be a very high scoring affair.

This is how my team looks this weekend. I’m likely to hand my armband to Sterling or Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m) since Leeds’ high risk football might leave a lot of space for these Manchester City attackers.

Sitting at 4.8 million, surely this is the time for a green arrow to finally come my way and I’m expecting resurgence for my team starting this week. Here’s hoping I see you on the other side at the end of a much due good Gameweek.

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958 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Captain Vantastic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Is Harvey Barnes nailed on?

    1. davies
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Yes

    2. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Yeah, for now certainly.

    3. Brosstan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Looks like first choice but would expect quite a few 70 min ish games

    4. stephenpower130
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      At the minute he is. Playing very well and racked up 270/270mins so far. European football is a worry for me though with Thursday-Sunday turnaround and a lot of travel. I'm still bringing him this week though for Son but it is something to monitor.

  2. Bubz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    I'd be interested in knowing who people's pick from these 3 defenders would be:

    A. Semedo (FUL, lee, NEW, PAL)
    B. Castagne (WHU, AVL, ars, lee)
    C. James (CRY, SOT, mun, bur)

    Or

    D. Keep Doherty (mun, WHU, bur, BHA)

    1. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      That is a tough one. I'd just go James and save the money.

    2. I Member
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      A

    3. Pukki Party
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      D for me still has best CS potential.

      1. Bubz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        I need attacking returns for that price though

      2. Bubz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        I also anticipate Nuno to go back to basics after the west ham game and look to be solid at the back again

    4. jason_ni
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Money not a factor, castagne hands down. Mans a beast

    5. rjcv177
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      A. Those fixtures look tasty

    6. Brosstan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      waste of transfer

      1. Bubz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Premium defender spot is an important spot

        1. Brosstan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Why even list D as an option if you have excluded it then...

          1. Bubz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            I haven't excluded it

            1. Brosstan
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Then why are you arguing against me? jfc..

              1. Bubz
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                I'm not

              2. Bubz
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Your post implied moreso it's not an important use of a transfer rather than any merit of keeping Doherty. Make your posts clearer jfc...

    7. Dthinger
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      b

    8. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Think you have listed them in the correct order imo

    9. BENOIT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      B

    10. Karan14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Find a way to upgrade to Robbo if not this week maybe later.

    11. Big Hippo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Keep the transfer imo. But if on WC I'd go Saiss for the next 4

  3. Pukki Party
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    What to do with Richarlison and Son here? 2ft 0.4itb. Could keep both and bench will cover if needed, feel like Son have a bigger chance of playing.

    Johnstone
    TAA Robbo Vinagre
    Salah Son* Greenwood Soucek
    Martial Jimenez Richarlison*

    Button Justin Mitchell Bissouma

    A) Son to Mahrez
    B) Richi to Ings
    C) Both above

    Suggestions? Thanks.

    1. rjcv177
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Same problem.
      Can Son's injury drag beyond IB?
      That's my issue. The waiting game and mindtricks

      1. Pukki Party
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        If it really was a hamstring injury it could, but sounds like some sort of precausion taking him off at HT. Lounhas said he will be back after IB. I'm thinking i should use a ft this week for one of my flagged player as i have 2ft.

        1. Pukki Party
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Mou said*

  4. Flynny
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Hi....shocking start to season. Rank 4.5m. 0.2mitb. Am I good to save ft here?

    Martinez (forster)
    Taa James saiss (lamptey Mitchell)
    Salah kdb foden podence (Burke)
    Werner jiminez dcl

    Thanks

    1. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Bench good enough to cover Podence if he doesn't start. Yeah, think you're all good!

    2. Karan14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Save and I hope this team goes mad this week. We've got the same starting 11.

      1. Flynny
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Cheers guys.

        2fts open up various options with son, pulisic and robbo in my thoughts

        1. Karan14
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Yes agreed Son & Robbo top of my watchlist atm.

    3. Big Hippo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Save. Good team! Due some points imo

      1. Flynny
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Thanks hippo

  5. Silecro
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Good day people!
    Save ft here?

    McCarthy(wba)
    TAA(avl), Taylor(new), Vinagre(FUL), Justin(WHU)
    Salah(avl), KDB(lee), Rodriguez(BHA), Podence(FUL)
    Martial(TOT), Werner(CRY)

    Bench: Nyland, Mitrović, Mitchell, Bissouma

    Maybe play mitro instead vinagre

    1. Pukki Party
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Save, gtg

      1. Silecro
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        cheers!

    2. mcginnntonic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      vinagre has been sold

  6. That Was Easy!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    After a paltry 33 last week, I hope I can have a cracker here...

    Ryan
    TAA Robbo James Saiss
    Salah KDB (C) Foden Podence
    Ings Jimmy

  7. Cheeto__Bandito
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Werner and Son to Maupay and Sterling?

      Yes or no

      1. That Was Easy!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Looks nice for free! Is it for a hit?

        1. Cheeto__Bandito
            1 month, 29 days ago

            hit, but sterling tempting

        2. Cheeto__Bandito
            1 month, 29 days ago

            or just son to barnes

            1. Stormbringer22
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Just Son to Barnes

        3. jason_ni
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          son to barnes with ft

          And then do dunne(or mitchell if dunne keeps his place) to robbo or taa next gw?

          Can also do son to bruno f, but stops future move for pool def.

          1. Hazz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            It's worth thinking about. At this moment, just be glad the opportunity is there to do that.

            Son could bag straight away and you might not be able to get a player like him back easily once you've splurged on a premium defender - so just see how the coming GW or two play out.

        4. Brosstan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Can Brewster play this week?

          1. jason_ni
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Deal hasn't been done yet, has it?

          2. Stormbringer22
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 29 days ago

            I don't think the deal will be done in time for that

          3. Hazz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            If it gets done today, I wouldn't be surprised if he's in the squad on Sunday - but wouldn't bet on a start. Could play, but time is against him.

            1. Hazz
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Update: Not registered in time

              https://twitter.com/mcgrathmike/status/1312001716313874432?s=19

          4. FPL-(VAR)dy
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            No not this week

          5. Seanigula
            • 11 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            dumb pick anyways until he is starting regularly and getting an occasional goal...until then he’s not much better than an injured player

            1. Brosstan
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              hes bench fodder

        5. That Was Easy!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          After having Barnes from week 1, selling on my GW3 WC, I want nothing more than to take a hit to bring him back. Kid will have a few crackers.

          1. Stormbringer22
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Will have a high scoring one this GW for sure

        6. TeddiPonza
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Martinez
          Saiss RJames Justin
          Salah KdB Son! Podence!
          Werner! Jimi DCL

          subs. Forster Lamptey Burke Mitchell

          What to do?

          A. Son to Mahrez/Barnes/Zaha (no hit)
          B. Son and Werner to Sterling and Bamford/Maupay (-4)
          C. Son and Werner to Zaha/Barnes and Vardy (-4)
          D. Save transfer and trust bench
          E. Something else

          Thanks

        7. Stormbringer22
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Thanks, Lateriser. Always read your articles with interest and FPL Wire is the best podcast out there - very informative. Good luck this week! As a fellow wildcard-er in GW3, a green arrow should surely come our way

        8. Dutchboy
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          If I'm getting rid of Son and might get him back after IB, would you get:

          A) Mahrez
          B) Foden

          1. Stormbringer22
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 29 days ago

            A

            1. Dutchboy
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Isn't he unlikely to start though?

              1. Dutchboy
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Next game I mean

          2. FPL-(VAR)dy
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            If its just for 1 week,I d look to hold transfer;otherwise Mahrez

        9. Clueless24
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Thoughts? Wildcard still intact planning on either GW5 or GW10
          McCarthy
          TAA Justin KWP Semedo
          KDB Rodriguez Salah
          DCL Jimenez Werner

          Steer Ferguson Bissouma Stephens

          1. SuperG
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            This is a great preWC team. I’d hold until GW10 when there’s a swing.

            1. Clueless24
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              cool thanks!

        10. SuperG
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Another great article LR. Re Werner —-> Ings, this is a move I’ve made this week. I had Ings all last season but for an inexplicable reason went Werner instead for the start of the season. IMO Ings will get close to 20 again this season - remember, he didn’t really start scoring until November last year and wasn’t on pens. So could easily be the best striker in PPM terms.

        11. FPL-(VAR)dy
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          I have got the funds.Who should I go for long term
          1)Robertson
          2)Kane

          1. Stormbringer22
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Robbo

        12. HD7
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          OnWC :

          Mccarthy
          TAA Semedo Justin Dunne
          Salah KDB Zaha
          Vardy Jimi DCL

          Button Mendy Mitchell Stephens

          Should I change Justin Dunne Vardy to Castagne Taylor Ings?

          I really prefer Vardy for the long run but I guess Justin and Dunne arent nailed players?

        13. Captain Vantastic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          JRod or Zaha for the next few fixtures?

          1. HD7
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Zaha if fixs are to be concerned

        14. Dele
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Please pick one combination...

          A) DCL + H.Barnes (-4)

          B) Jimenez + Maupay (-8)

          1. FPL-(VAR)dy
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            A

        15. 16ShimiC16
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Which 5.9 or lower defender should I bring in for 1 week only

          Semedo
          Castagne (already have Justin)
          or someone else ?

          1. Park the bus
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Semedo

          2. FPL-(VAR)dy
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Tierney,

          3. tokara
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Cast

            1. 16ShimiC16
              • 9 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Well that makes my choice easier lol

        16. Park the bus
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          best mid for 9.4 max for this GW before I wildcard? Think its come down to Havertz or Barnes. Have Werner but no Leicester attack. thoughts?

          1. Park the bus
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            or Mahrez of course....

            1. FPL-(VAR)dy
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Nailedness of start makes Barnes a better option IMO

          2. Dash4
              1 month, 29 days ago

              I’m going Barnes

          3. Silecro
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            play 1:

            A) Mitro (wol)
            B) Vinagre (FUL)

            1. Park the bus
              • 9 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Mitro definitely

            2. Evasivo
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              B for me

            3. FPL-(VAR)dy
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Mitro,
              Dont even think Vinagre starts this one

          4. Gazza2000
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Will we get one more game out of Vinagre or is he gone already?

            1. FPL-(VAR)dy
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              The latter IMO

          5. The Colonel
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Jiminez or DCL for one week punt? To replace Martial.

            1. Karan14
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Jimmy

              1. tokara
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                This

            2. FPL-(VAR)dy
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Jim

            3. Bobby Digital
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Jim

          6. Beatle
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Any news on Podence?

            1. phily4321
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Late fitness test, trained yesterday with no contact

            2. Gazza2000
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              It's in the tweets

              1. Hakim Ziyech
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Thanks

            3. Seanigula
              • 11 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Read the Tweet section

            4. FC Hakkebøf
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              I think Nuno will be reluctant to play him this week..

              1. TLF
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                I have a feeling he'll play, there must be some indication the injury isn't too bad as he's included in Portugal squad. Podence will inject much needed a spark into a team that need to respond on the back of heavy defeat, IB just around the corner too and Nuno will be keen to go into that on back of a win.

          7. seanie3
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Does it look like Davies is now dropped for Regullion.. if so need to move on a 5m defender

            1. FC Hakkebøf
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              I think Mourinho will play Davies as LCB in a 3-5-2

            2. FPL-(VAR)dy
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              I think Mou intends on playing 3-4-3 when all his personnel are fit,I see Davies play as a part of back 3 with Reguilon and Doherty playing wing backs

          8. phily4321
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 29 days ago

            A) Stuart Dallas
            B) Charlie taylor

            1. FPL-(VAR)dy
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              taylor

          9. stephenpower130
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 29 days ago

            I'm bringing in Harvey Barnes this week. Can't deny his underlying statistics when it comes to shots in the box and on target. A caveat though is European football. He has an injury free record but I think there mabye rotation with Thursday-Sunday turnarounds and a lot of travel. Just something to think about..

          10. El Fenomeno R9
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Any chance Mitchell to start on other side when PVA is back?

          11. Teror
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            A. Martial > Ings (-4)

            B. Dier > Castagne (-4)

            C. Both (-8)

            1. FPL-(VAR)dy
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              None actually.A only if you intend on captaining Ings.

            2. FC Hakkebøf
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Neither