Pro Pundits - Lateriser

How I am realigning my FPL thinking with more penalties on offer this season

It has been such a strange start to the 2020/21 Fantasy Premier League season and there is a lot riding on Gameweek 4.

Except for a few usual suspects coming to the fore, most of Gameweek 3 seemed like an anomaly rather than the norm, although it is still very early in the campaign.

But keeping that in mind, I will continue to advise Fantasy managers to not to panic and keep calm. Remember, last week was probably the ideal kind of time to have a bad Gameweek given the low average.

I Wildcarded prior to Gameweek 3, scored a measly 35 points and currently hold an overall rank of 4.8 million. That said, I’m not particularly worried (yet) and those that Wildcarded recently should judge their new squad after at least its first five Gameweeks, not just one round.

But how long can I go without addressing the elephant in the room?

I am, of course, talking about penalties.

For those that aren’t aware, the Premier League was asked to be stricter and more in line with the other leagues for handball rules this season, which has resulted in considerably more spot-kicks than usual. Of the 20 awarded so far, six have been for handball.  

But, we have already seen, after the chaos last week, that referees have been asked to be a little more lenient when it comes awarding penalties for handball from here on.

Under the new instructions, referees have been asked to consider the proximity of the player to the ball, his arm position and the amount of time he has to react.

This means that a player is likely to be penalised for handball if the arm is out from the body or if the ball has travelled a distance.

On top of that, if a player is using their arm for balance or protection then a penalty is less likely to be given, whereas a player’s arm blocking a direct shot on goal is more likely to be given. If a player has his arm above the shoulder, the penalty will still be awarded.

Given these new guidelines, the penalties awarded against Victor Lindelöf (£5.0m), Matt Doherty (£5.9m) and Joel Ward (£4.5m) would not likely have been awarded but the ones against Neal Maupay (£6.5m) and Eric Dier (£5.0m) would have still stood.

Dale Johnson from ESPN told us in his tweet that top leagues like the La Liga and the Serie A got awarded around 30 to 40 penalties more than the Premier League last season and, while I do expect the number to rise in England this year, I don’t think it will be drastic.

What this tells me is I need to realign my thinking with regards to penalties. While earlier I used thinking of a player being on a penalty as an added ‘bonus’, now I want to mentally give that player at least 10 to 15% more weightage in my head when making transfer and captaincy decisions.

However, that does not necessarily mean I opt for players like Callum Wilson (£6.4m) in my team because Newcastle are just not showing enough going forward in open play at the moment.

It also does not mean that I stop myself from picking players like Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) and Sadio Mané (£11.9m) in my team because that would mean giving way more attention to penalties than you should.

It just means that when debating Mohamed Salah (£12.1m) and Mané in my headm and if it’s a 50/50 call, the penalties will swing it for me this season. This wasn’t always the case for me last season.

Also, the only real predictability we have for these ‘random’ handballs for a team is if a team is spending a lot of time in the opposition attacking area.

My guess is that the penalty box touches of the final third touches a team has could be a good indicator of the ability of that team to win a penalty due to a handball.

This is in addition to the teams having players with the ability to draw fouls and win penalties because not much has changed with regards to the rules there.

Given these two factors, outside of the obvious candidates from Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United, I’m also looking at the likes of Richarlison (£8.0m) and Michail Antonio (£6.3m) more closely.

That’s enough on the subject of penalties and I for one hope that the Fantasy Premier League does not turn into the Fantasy Penalty League as it would take a lot of fun and eye-test assessment out of the game.

Another thing I want to talk about is that if you’re not really sure about what transfer to make this Gameweek, there’s no better time to save a transfer than the international break. As my co-host and fellow Pro Pundit Zøphar pointed out on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire, a lot of the national teams are playing three games in this period, so an extra transfer could be handy given the potential ‘injuries’ and in today’s world, ‘infections’.

Also, one more note with regards to teams like Manchester United and Manchester City, who have had a staggered pre-season and are visibly behind on sharpness when compared to other teams, I urge patience. This gap will only become thinner as more and more time passes and we should see all teams on similar levels of ‘fitness’ in the next two odd Gameweeks.

At the time of writing, I’m wondering whether to ship off Timo Werner (£9.4m) for the likes of Danny Ings (£8.4m) or Richarlison. Southampton have a really good fixture this Gameweek but the three games after don’t fill me with confidence.

Normally I wouldn’t worry too much about fixtures when it comes to Southampton but they are in the bottom half of the table for shots in the box so far and Ings had only a single shot against Burnley.

This, combined with Ralph Hasenhüttl’s quotes this week of taking a ‘defence first’ and the international break after this is making me lean towards banking my transfer. This could change before Saturday though.

“It wasn’t a good start to the season but we have focused our work this week on the defence and it was fantastic to see how much they had invested today.” – Ralph Hasenhüttl

In addition, I’ve got a close eye on Spurs assets who have good fixtures (Jose Mourinho has got his team playing well) and maybe some returning Manchester City strikers post the international break.

I’ve also got to bring Salah back in my team really soon but can’t sell my Manchester City midfielders before the Leeds game, which has the potential to be a very high scoring affair.

This is how my team looks this weekend. I’m likely to hand my armband to Sterling or Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m) since Leeds’ high risk football might leave a lot of space for these Manchester City attackers.

Sitting at 4.8 million, surely this is the time for a green arrow to finally come my way and I’m expecting resurgence for my team starting this week. Here’s hoping I see you on the other side at the end of a much due good Gameweek.

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958 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Olson
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    How many years does Jamie Vardy have to keep doing what he does to convince people? Seeing fairly regular references to Vardy and his stats, and one unfavorable write up in the hot topic'd GW3 write up

    Stats provide a simplified numerical description of what is actually happening. I'm sure that doesn't need explaining to most managers but it does seem worth restating as a reminder

    So Vardy isn't getting many big chances, he isn't he getting many shots away, and so his score is treated as misleading, like the pens will dry up and the pionts with them. Anyone whose thoughts are heading down that street only needs to have a look at the pens to work out where the big chances are being headed off, and why he's not getting shots away...

    O'Shea trips Justin, Bartley trips Barnes, Garcia barges over Vardy, Walker trips Vardy

    The pens and the big chances are linked. When the pens dry up, in all likelihood the big chances and shots away increase. Leicester are currently playing very well and while they continue to do so that will continue to manifest itself in points for Vardy one way or another

    We know this because we've seen it over and over again

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      If City didn't concede 3 silly penalties than suddenly no one is talking about Vardy... he's looked less threatening so far from open play... for his price not really interested

      1. Olson
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Do you think it's coincidence or an anomoly that Leicester have won 5 penalties from opposition fouling their attacking players?

        1. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          I think these handball rules are a big abnormality and things will settle down soon. Prefer Barnes over Vardy by quite a distance

    2. Klaren
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      They had plenty of big chances against Burnley and Vardy wasn't involved in any of them as far as I can remember. I think that match is a bigger concern for many compared to the other 2 away games they played.

      Regardless of that, I do agree that Vardy is a great option but the reason I didn't go with him is the availability of other great options at cheaper prices.

  2. Bleh
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Any changes you would make on WC?

    Martinez - Steer
    TAA - Robbo - Justin - Lamptey - Mitchell
    Salah - KDB - Trossard - Klich - Stephens
    Jimenez - DCL - Ings

    May downgrade Jimi and upgrade Trossard when fixtures turn.

    1. schlupptheweek
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Son could end up essential at 9.0M or 8.9M but you can downgrade Ings/Jim and upgrade Klich.
      Looks good but you might struggle to accommodate midfield bandwagons with Klich and Stevens.

      1. Bleh
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Thanks. The only other premium mid I can see myself wanting is Pulisic if Chelsea hit some form, which would presumably involve a switch from Klich, Jimi > Pulisic, Bamford. Not interested in Bruno for his price and Spurs assets are too up/down to invest in for me.

  3. Pukki Blinders
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Start Taylor or Lewis this week? Lascelles is a doubt...

    1. Cheeto__Bandito
        2 months, 1 day ago

        t

    2. Cheeto__Bandito
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Have Salah and KDB, but really want to get sterling vs Leeds, is this too bad team structure wise?

        1. El Fenomeno R9
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Wouldnt go there,more points in spreading Sterlings money.

      • Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Welcome to the Blades, Rhian.

        United have again smashed the club's record transfer fee to secure the services of the sought-after striker on a 5 year deal.

        https://www.sufc.co.uk/news/2020/october/rhian-brewster-signs/

        https://twitter.com/SheffieldUnited/status/1312068418741436416?s=19

        https://youtu.be/M6ooKsxOMdE

        1. Stormbringer22
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Well, going for Burke on my WC last week worked out well! 😀

          1. Klaren
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            He could still get some starts given that they play with 2 strikers. McGoldrick isn't any better than Burke (in my opinion) and McBurnie and Sharp are different type of players.

        2. Bushwhacker
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          WOOP!

      • Scots Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        GTG?

        Martinez
        TAA / Digne / Saiss
        Salah / KDB (c) / Hames / Foden / Zaha
        DCL / Jimenez

        Forster / Lamptey / Mitchell / Brewster

        1. TLF
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Nice team, GL

      • WHY ALWAYS MESUT?
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        A) TAA, Zaha & James
        B) Robbo, Mahrez & Barnes
        C) Robbo, Mahrez & Maddison

        What do you like?

      • Pedram
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Does anyone have the link to Magnus Carlsen's team?

        1. Honourvolley
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          76862

      • Lord Flashheart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        is shaw to robertson worth -4?

        i have TAA, but son likely out so wlil have to play soucek - rather play robertson

        Yes or No ?

        1. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Definitely not

          1. Lord Flashheart
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            cheers

        2. Pep bites Kun
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Not for 1 gw. Plan the moves, if you wish, with FT's

          Play Soucek v Lei

        3. lilmessipran
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Absolutely is, might pay you back in one gw alone ..certainly a great long term move

      • Pep bites Kun
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Werner to Ings on FT? Next move, if I do that, would be Brewster to Mitro

        I'm inclined to hold, to roll 2 FT over the IB. Am I being sensible or stubborn? 🙂

        1. ReindeerHotdog
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          2 months, 1 day ago

          2 FT while approaching a time of uncertainty is always helpful.

          I think a lot of people will bring in Brewster so it might be worth keeping an eye on price changes over the IB.

          1. Pep bites Kun
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Appreciate your point of view

        2. Rasping Drive
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Roll the trades.
          Out of interest, why are you considering Brewster to Mitrovic?

          1. Pep bites Kun
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            I fancy Mitro as a 6m striker - may not light up the world, but I think he'll prove his worth, over the season, in a team where he's always likely to get the points.

            Did I miss transfer news on Brewster?

            1. Rasping Drive
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              Hehe, yes he’s moved to Sheff Utd

              1. Pep bites Kun
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Yep, caught up - was just reading it. Took a few days out from FPL. A lot happens in a short space - cheers 🙂 Might be a slight change of plan then

        3. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Honestly prefer Brewster +1.5m to Mitro

          1. Pep bites Kun
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            1.5m itb ain't making any points though

            1. Pukki Blinders
              • 1 Year
              2 months, 1 day ago

              It's not locked in the bank forever mate, can be be reinvested elsewhere...

              1. Pep bites Kun
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Appreciate the point - wasn't being salty

      • FPL_trail_runner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Felt pretty set with this and to get 2 FT for week 5

        Meslier
        Keane TAA Justin Saiss
        Sterling (c) Salah Rashford Hamez
        Jimi DCL

        However a longterm -4 hit has me tempted :
        Rash + Keane to Barnes + Robertson

        Could go either way where Spurs sit deep and Keane concedes without Allan

        With Barnes and Robbo instantly more than paying the hit back.

        Decisions to be made

      • El Fenomeno R9
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Brewster get in,monster front 3 complete

        DCL - Bamford - Brewster

        1. Pedram
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          More like monstrosity

          1. El Fenomeno R9
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Now better?

            Salah - KDB - Bruno - Hamez - Foden

      • CHARLIE HULL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Best 4.5m mid given the Brewster news?

        1. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          still Biss for me

        2. FPL_trail_runner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          2 months, 1 day ago

          He (Brewster) is a bench fodder option and may get the odd return

          He is not an fpl option, (i have him since week 1 and got him for the bench option of getting an odd point if ever necessary)

          Just a 4.5mil option to bench.

          Nothing more and nothing less.

          people would not have him if he were 5mil.

          Price option and FPL option should not be mixed up

          1. Rasping Drive
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Initially, yes, he’s a very useful enabler that will play every week. However, who’s to say he won’t start banging in the goals?

            1. El Fenomeno R9
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              This,could be good value even for 5.0M

            2. FPL_trail_runner
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              2 months, 1 day ago

              I dont see him as a consistent option to start over any other in my 11.

              He is a 1 in 2 striker from the Championship at present going into a team who are not setup offensively in the premiership

              He will score - but enough and consistent to warrant regular fpl starts - i doubt for this season

          2. El Fenomeno R9
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Disagree,think he will be great FPL option especially with Soucek rotation

            1. Sun Jihai
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              2 months, 1 day ago

              He doesn't rotate with Soucek very well though?

              West Ham
              GW5 TOT (A)
              GW6 MCI (H)
              GW7 LIV (A)
              GW8 FUL (H)
              GW9 SHU (A)
              GW10 AVL (H)
              GW11 MUN (H)

              Sheff Utd
              GW5 FUL (H)
              GW6 LIV (A)
              GW7 MCI (H)
              GW8 CHE (A)
              GW9 WHU (H)
              GW10 WBA (A)
              GW11 LEI (H)

              GW5 is good
              But then GW6/7 both have horrible games
              GW8 is good
              GW9 they play each other
              GW10 both have good games, so hard to pick one
              GW11 both have a tough game

              1. El Fenomeno R9
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Not rotation like that,play who ever you want rotation.
                And provide good 1st sub who is not 2 pointer and can get you something.

                Could even bench both and go 4-4-2 if difficult fixtures for both

          3. Flair
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Didn't realize you could predict the future

        3. KAPTAIN KANE
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Brewster and Burke double up

        4. CHARLIE HULL
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          To clarify I mean as Burke looked the best option but now less likely to play

          1. G-Whizz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Not sure they would spend that kind of money for him to just rot on the bench, I dunno, I think I'm going to wait and see on this one...

            1. Bushwhacker
              • 1 Year
              2 months, 1 day ago

              He'll start and he'll score. He's a huge talent.

      • Lord Flashheart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        It all boils down to this:

        A keep son, play soucek, no hit, cap salah
        B son to sterling (C) for -4
        C soucek to barnes -4 bench son, cap salah

        really at a crossroads
        any opion will help

        1. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          A

        2. tinear
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          A

        3. Rasping Drive
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          A. Soucek has looked very dangerous and Son’s upcoming run of fixtures is delicious.

          What other potential options do you have for the armband?

      • Pedram
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Punting on Jimenez captaincy, let's hope he doesn't end up with a own goal.

        1. FPL_trail_runner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Dont

          Its a low probablity hitting risk, also if you hit (and Jimi does good) will lead to probably lost points longterm - since you will try this strategy in future with other players and miss 8/10 with cheaper options in good fixtures. I have him , would never captain. Happy to get 5 points this week from him.

          Go with heavy hitters consistently and play the best odds

        2. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Very low ceiling with that

      • tinear
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Mccarthy
        Taa, Justin, KWP, Bavies
        Salah, KDB, Podence
        DCL, Werner, Mitro

        Nyland-Bissouma-Son-Mitchell
        1.0 itb, 1ft

        1) Werner to Jimi/Vardy
        2) Werner Son to Jimi Barnes -4
        3) Bank ft for IB

        What would you do?

      • The Train Driver
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Hand rule changed again, looks like the "stack up on penalty takers" strategy won't be as effective...

        1. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Do you have a link or any info?

          1. The Train Driver
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Just read it in a Swedish newspaper.

        2. Eezer Goode, Eberechi Goode
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Cant believe they going to change that Hand ball rule mid season, are they going to give us a draw v Everton to make up for their stupidity in the first place? Crazy.

      • KAPTAIN KANE
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Bruno (C) or Bruno to Sterling (C) for a -4?

      • Sun Jihai
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Davis ownership = 13.4%
        Hopefully this means we get a 4.2m fodder forward

        1. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Would still take Brewster even for a bit more

          1. Sun Jihai
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            I'm more imagining some stacked midfield like Sterling, Salah, KDB, Pulisic, Barnes and a front line of DCL, Brewster, Davis

      • Traction Engine Foot
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Son and Vinagre to Trossard and Robertson worth -4? If neither play I'd have Mitchell and Bissouma coming in..

      • Jordan.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        8foot 2 inch soucek to feast on 5 foot 4 inch justin,come tomas lets av it

        1. ElliotJHP
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          He's growing by the hour!

          1. Jordan.
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            jellied eels son,jellied eels...

      • CHARLIE HULL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Is Stephens nailed at Burnley? Could do with the 0.1 saving

      • gunner79
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 22 hours ago

        Salha or Sterling for captain?

      • SvettigaRiddare
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        In the beginning of the article Lateriser says that he will give 10 to 15% more weightage to pen takers. Then he says that it will most likely only influence him in 50/50 decisions. I don't follow that logic.