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We spoke to Adam from Football Index Trader to get the latest tips and advice ahead of the weekend’s action
The football calendar is causing havoc with Fantasy Premier League teams right now, and has definitely had a big impact over on the Football Index too.
The erratic fixture calendar plus some important recent changes to the way we win dividends on Football Index has my brain working overtime. Something I am sure anyone trying to navigate recent gameweeks on FPL can understand!
On Friday January 8, Football Index announced that “In Play Dividends” were to be removed and replaced with an as yet unknown win mechanic that should encourage more medium to longer term trading.
In Play Dividends were a simple mechanic that meant players got payouts for goals, assists and clean sheets (for a period of 30 days from purchase).
Suffice to say, as attractive as In Play was, it has contributed strongly to some short-term trading behaviour in recent months that wasn’t good for the market overall. I am hopeful that whatever FI come up with to replace it will be better for the longer-term.
But changes like this do mean a strategy adjustment, which is worth considering…
A good tip for sustainable success on FI is never to stray too far from the original concept of the platform. FI is designed to be a longer-term, slower burning alternative to traditional betting.
In my opinion, it is more intellectually satisfying than punting on a goal at the bookie or backing a horse. In the same way getting your Captain choice nailed on in FPL feels great – FI can be full of those deliciously smug “I told you so” moments. And they reward us with real money, not just bragging rights.
Trends come and go on FI. In recent months a combination of factors ranging from COVID to the fixture calendar to FI doubling our payouts caused many people to chase short term rewards and move away from that longer term, slower burn approach.
Those trends can (and when backed by good research – should) be leaned into. But completely reworking our player choices and extending too far away from that original purpose of FI is always very risky. It is likely that at some point FI takes steps to reinforce the original purpose of FI in those situations as they did last week.
My second tip for sustainable success would be in a similar vein – stick reasonably close to real quality players that are actually relevant to the FI scoring system and are at a reasonable price.
It’s often very tempting to chase hyped “wonderkids” or similar, and people will do this often based on little to no evidence that they are in any way suitable for FI.
This can be good whilst people are in that kind of mood, and I definitely participate when I can see an advantage, but we need to be aware that in any market turbulence such players are likely to struggle.
At least when you have quality players at value prices – you know that even if the price dips temporarily – you have a bet that is worth something solid as they can win you dividends.
We can’t always predict what the market will do week to week – but we can put ourselves in a strong position by holding good quality players. And the key to that is great quality research – something good FPL managers are no stranger to. What FPL managers and FI traders are looking for is a bit different – but the skillset is very much the same.
My suggestion when thinking of building an FI portfolio for the months ahead would be to focus on some of the proven quality players that are strong in the existing FI scoring system and win mechanics. Many of these are at surprisingly good value prices right now.
There is currently no need to go chasing the 16 year old “next Messi”.
What we want is big ticket players with a Champions and Europa League campaign ahead, and ideally with a spot at Euro 2020 too.
I hope that such players benefit from the new win mechanic that FI will introduce, at least on some level. We don’t know exactly what that is yet. But given that these players should already offer value, if we happen to be putting ourselves on the right side of any new way to win, we’re doing ourselves no harm.
Let’s pick out a few examples of players who would fit that description, and examine the reasons they might succeed or fail. To make things easier, I’ll focus mainly on a few that will be familiar to FPL managers.
The appeal of Kane for media dividends as we head towards Euro 2020 is obvious. Many traders are very short-sighted and simply getting in early whilst the price is suppressed has an obvious appeal.
In FI performance scoring terms, he’s ok, but is frequently beaten by slightly more FI suitable players. But he’s not too far away from wins as it is, and if we do see a new win mechanic that lowers the winning bar slightly it could benefit him strongly.
It’s a small bet on the outcome of the announcement here but I don’t think it’s a reckless one because even without this help the current price would be reasonable.
Spurs also have a tasty Europa League Round of 32 match up on the way and could go far in that competition. Those late stage knockout games can be very lucrative on FI as they come with big payouts and a high chance of winning because only a few teams are competing that day.
He is far from the world’s most suitable FI player and will usually need more than just one goal to get a really competitive score. But he can be explosive and is also adding a lot of assists this season.
For the current £3.29 to £3.65 there are a lot of positive factors in his favour with the Europa and Eur’s on the way. Obvious media appeal. Still just 27 with years ahead. And a factor not to be underestimated on FI – just a plain old obvious name traders (and new traders) are just going to be familiar with and want.
Well in range of FI performance wins at Lyon. Has a potentially good move on the table possibly to Juventus or Barcelona most likely at the end of the season which could combine nicely with optimism for him as Holland’s leading man at Euro 2020.
Not many, still just 26. He’s playing below his potential right now yet is still in contention. He’s fine at Lyon, a move to Juventus or Barcelona probably only improves him.
Fantastic value at £1.48 to £1.74, with the only dampener the lack of European competition this season. But you don’t always need to tick every box, just enough. Euro 2020 gives a nice late season reason to hold.
Mount has massively improved this season in underlying FI numbers. In the past on FI, people were far too optimistic well before he was ready. Now? They are likely too pessimistic. And he looks ready.
Looking very strong for FI scoring these days. We have seen one performance win this season but he’s unlucky not to get more. Poor Chelsea form hasn’t helped, and his goal output needs to improve. He gets plenty of chances though, far more than his current scoring rate would let on.
If he can just improve his finishing he could be a regular FI competitor. And such players at big EPL teams and in the England set up are rare. And potentially very valuable.
Some uncertainty around a possible new coach coming in, but it would seem harsh to sideline him after good performances this season.
Still young and available between £1.18 to £1.34 I think he is a bargain. There are of course risks – what if he doesn’t start finishing the chances he gets? What if Lampard is sacked and a new coach doesn’t fancy him?
But if he did reach his FI potential as a Chelsea and England regular I don’t think he’d have any problem clearing £4. So a good balance of risk reward here in my view.
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