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The notion of ‘new manager bounce’ is readily applied to teams, but less so when it comes to individual players.
But one of the more interesting aspects of the arrival at Chelsea of Thomas Tuchel will be whether he can bring out the best in a number of under-performing players.
If he can, there should be a few moves to make on Football Index (FI).
If you’re new to ‘The Football Stockmarket’, it’s a real-money betting platform where you can buy and sell footballers.
On Football Index you buy shares in individual players whose value can rise or fall depending on their performance both on the field and in the media.
I’m actively using FI this season with more than a nod to FPL, seeing which aspects of each game marry up, and which don’t.
One of the more tragic sub-plots of the FPL season so far has been the form (or complete lack of it) of Chelsea striker Timo Werner.
The German started the season in around a third of all squads and, despite not scoring in the league since a Gameweek 8 mauling of Sheffield United in early November, he’s still in 11.6%.
And while not the only reason for the demise of coach Frank Lampard, he is that sorry story’s poster boy.
Lampard, after all, gave him 15 straight starts (and 1,393 minutes) to adapt to the Premier League and he responded with four goals and five assists.
Those struggles didn’t go unnoticed on FI, where Werner’s share price, which had peaked at £5.99 in early September, dropped to a chastening £1.36 late last week.
But that new manager bounce is presumably now kicking in, with the striker currently trading around the £1.80 mark.
Chelsea, like every club with a European string to their bow, have an insanely busy month ahead, with two games a week from now until the end of February.
If – and it’s big one – Tuchel can help Werner find some form, his value can only rise further, although that September high is a long, long way off.
Having said that, FI’s decision to ditch in-play dividends from early next month should encourage traders to return to the longer game that it originally was.
And further down the road is the European Championships – a competition that any number of Chelsea stars will be involved in. That should boost their attractiveness in FI in terms of share value and dividend output (both media and match day), so getting in early on key Blues assets looks sustainable.
Werner has produced a £0.93 dividend yield over the last 12 months.
Another recent signing, Hakim Ziyech (£1.26), is a lot further down the FI value chain and brought in a mere £0.12 in dividends over the past year.
But his price is also on the move upwards, as are most of the Chelsea squad’s valuations in recent days.
Lampard failed for a number of reasons, most notably for struggling to find the right team balance from a squad rich in attacking talent.
Tuchel will, of course, face the same challenge and it will be interesting to see how the younger players fit into his personal master plan considering his recent admission that he chose more experienced options to face Wolves as he felt them better-equipped to deal with a new manager.
What doesn’t seem in doubt, however, is that there is a lot of FI value waiting to be tapped into at Chelsea.
Their domestic fixtures are generally favourable until the middle of March, with Champions League action to further sweeten the deal.
Timing, as ever, will be vital for FI traders, but sooner looks wiser than later.
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3 years, 3 months agoSitting at 40k and looking to preserve rank. Do I hold or drop Kane?
Fabs
Chil - Robbo - Stones - Dias
Gundo - Salah - Bruno - Soucek
Kane** - Bam
Fodder - Brewster - Dale Stephens - fodder
5.5 ITB
A) Kane > anyone
B) Stephens > Son for free and play 4-5-1
C) Kane + Stephens > anyone really
D) Kane and Brewster > Two forwards.
Bit lost, Cheers