Dubbed “the Forgotten Gameweek” by Joe on the latest Scoutcast, Gameweek 28 arrives following a succession of Doubles and before Blank Gameweek 29. As a result it has been somewhat overlooked. But are there any opportunities to exploit?
We have a Friday deadline this week and you have until 18:30 GMT deadline to make any last-minute changes to your Gameweek 28 side.
All Rise
The Blues are on the up in West London and an enticing fixture against Leeds United has peaked our interest.
Timo Werner (£9.2m) was tentatively suggested as an armband candidate on the Captaincy Video – and having amassed an xGI of nearly two when the sides met in December, it’s easy to understand why.
But given that his confidence in front of goal, as Neale put it, is “shot to pieces” it’s equally easy to understand why he was so readily dismissed.
Instead, David and Joe warmed to Mason Mount (£7.0m), with Joe declaring him “the best captaincy shout” and Neale, in his in-depth look at Chelsea under Tuchel, calling Mount “arguably the pick of the bunch as he combines assist potential with a bit of a goal threat.”
Speaking on the Scoutcast, former FPL Winner Ben Crabtree elaborated on Mount’s potential:
Mason Mount’s the standout – on form, on the pitch looking great, and some good form with regards to converting that into Fantasy points.
And I think in the next game there’s a chance that Jorginho may get benched and he brings Kante back for Leeds: a bit more legs in there, so he might go Kante and Kovacic – that would put Mount on pens. Albeit it’s a maybe Jorginho doesn’t play, and it’s a maybe they get a pen, but it’s just a little something else in Mount’s favour along with the obvious open style that Leeds play; how they like giving you the ball in their own half.
It’s hard to see [how] Mount doesn’t capitalize on that. And there’s always the corners that Leeds really struggled to deal with – and Mount’s taking the corners. So it seems like Mount’s got a number of ways to attack there.
Pro Pundit Tom Freeman was another to sing Mount’s praises in his look at Premier League chance creators:
Regardless of position, [Mount] is playing closer to goal and I like the look of him from Gameweek 30 to 34 when Chelsea’s fixtures ease.
His advanced position was also noted by Jan in his Captain Sensible article: “in the previous six Gameweeks, the midfielder has registered 16 goal attempts, nine of these coming in the penalty area.”
Chelsea are one of 12 teams with a blank in Gameweek 29, but a promising run to follow means that investing now is not just a one-week gamble.
Another Chelsea attacker touted by Pro Pundits Lateriser and Zophar was Kai Havertz (£8.2m). “Re-born” in his new false nine role against Everton, Havertz impressed not only Chelsea fans but his head coach as well:
This is pretty much his best position between a nine and ten, and have the freedom to drop and move fluidly between the two positions. I feel him very confident in high positions, I like to have him in high positions, I don’t want to have him behind the ball, I want to have him high up the pitch … he had a huge impact in our game [against Everton] and we were very happy because this was not easy to come back so strong after so many games where he could not play.
– Thomas Tuchel
On the FPL Wire, Chelsea-fan Zophar even said he would prioritise Havertz over Mount. Clearly he’s not put off by the rotation risk that has applied to all their players under Tuchel – bar Cesar Azpilicueta (£5.8m) thus far.
Better Without Marcus
Jan made an insightful observation when discussing the best captain options for the upcoming fixtures, revealing that Bruno Fernandes (£11.5m) has tended to perform better when Marcus Rashford (£9.6m) hasn’t been on the pitch.
The reason is that the Portuguese midfielder is expected to play further up and take more goalscoring responsibility without Rashford in the XI. Rashford is suffering from an ankle injury and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is “not sure” if the 23-year-old will play against West Ham – Neale has left him out of his Predicted Starting XI.
Fernandes is described as the ‘safe’ captaincy candidate this week, given his likely high effective ownership numbers. A concept elaborated on by Pro Pundit Seb Wassell, who discussed different strategies to take advantage of effective ownership.
The Portuguese is Jan’s top armband choice with, perhaps surprisingly, Timo Werner as his differential pick.
And, despite promoting the captaincy credentials of Mason Mount, Joe will in fact be captaining Harry Kane (£11.4m).
Lost That Salah-ving Feeling
One player who isn’t being mentioned for the armband is Mohamed Salah (£12.5m), which is a little surprising when you consider his reliability over the past three seasons but not when taking into account in his recent form.
While many, including Az, are selling Salah, David feels Gameweek 28 could be an opportunity for the Egyptian to find his goalscoring boots again:
The Wolves game, actually, I think is an opportunity for them to get back on the horse because Wolves’ defence has not really been that reliable compared to what we’re used to with them: last four matches their xGC is 7.36 – fourth worst in the league. So there’s a chance, there’s an opportunity there for Liverpool to take advantage of a team that hasn’t defended too well.
Salah’s own stats – he’s way below where we’re expecting him to be – but he’s still getting big chances: he’s got three big chances in the last four, which is not awful, the problem is he’s got three shots on target so he’s not putting these away. I wouldn’t be shocked if this is a game where Liverpool get back to where we expect them to be.
The problem with selling Salah, according to Zophar, is who do you replace him with?
The Pro Pundit finished his piece with the words: “I still believe in Mohamed Salah. For now.” He cited concerns about the Europa League as a reason for avoiding Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.4m) and felt that Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) has not looked sharp since his return from injury – despite scoring twice in midweek.
And one replacement who is definitely a trap, if we are to believe an Amy Winehouse-inspired Neale, is Riyad Mahrez (£8.1m). Under the subheading “They tried to make me go for Riyad” (genius) he outlined his argument for “no, no, no”:
We’ve been here many times before with Mahrez, who has an incredible knack of attracting Fantasy interest once he’s already peaked. There was the run of four successive starts and a 21-point haul in Gameweeks 9-12, for example, which led to huge investment – and promptly preceded four consecutive benchings.
The most popular replacement for Salah – no midfielder has been bought more ahead of the deadline – is Gareth Bale (£9.5m).
Omitted from the starting XI for Tottenham’s Europa League tie yesterday bodes well for his prospects of featuring in the north London derby, but Az neatly outlined the dilemma facing Fantasy managers:
The trouble is, [Bale’s] minutes will surely continue to be managed so you’ll likely have to put up with a 60 to 70 minute appearance. He’s been devastating recently even with reduced game-time, but the logical side of my brain is telling me that Son Heung-min (£9.5m) is the better pick as Jose Mourinho continues to work him relentlessly with no sign of a rest in the league. The ownership difference between them is stark, at 5% vs. 55%, and if Bale continues to deliver, acquiring him over Son could be a season-defining move.
The Brighton fan has been suffering of late, with his side unable to convert promising underlying statistics into precious points.
Nonetheless Joël Veltman (£4.3m) has been talked up this week, and not just by Az.
The Dutch international headlines Tom’s three Differential picks and, looking ahead to Blank Gameweek 29, Free Hitters Ben Crabtree and Big Man Bakar, are both considering tripling up on the Brighton defence.
The cat-loving Bakar thought that going heavy at the back from one team might grant him maverick status, but such ideas were savagely put down by Zophar:
You’re tripling up against Steve Bruce’s Newcastle, you’re not exactly skydiving off the Eiffel Tower you’re jumping from the first floor and saying look at me I’m Evel Knievel.
Safe to say Brighton defenders might be a good bet next Gameweek.
Finally, with Mother’s Day taking place in the UK this weekend, Pro Pundit Simon March offered us some of words of wisdom from his (undoubtedly proud) mum. Did she get into Fantasy because her son won FPL or is she in fact the secret behind his success?
Community Competitions and Head-to-Head Fixtures
RedLightning brought us his usual round-up of the Community mini-leagues and competitions.
And Neale published the latest cup results this morning.
The luckiest winning manager in the FFS Open Cup was Golden Gelhaars who made it through to the third round with a modest 48 points, while the unluckiest loser was Munchen KfC who dropped out despite mustering 90 points in Gameweek 27.
And in the Members Cup, the unfortunate Muc1999 lost out on overall rank after a 91-all tie with TedTalksFPL despite accumulating 14 points more than the average winning score.
The Head-to-Head fixtures for Gameweek 28 can be found below.
The scores and tables are now updating every night on the Head-to-Head Leagues main page so you can keep track of the action as the Gameweek unfolds.
May your arrows be green!
