FPL Gameweek 17 team drafts: Odegaard over Martinelli and Saka?

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Here, Burning Questions co-host Sonaldo (aka Andy) talks us through his Gameweek 17 thoughts and plans.

According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, the word anticipation “implies a prospect or outlook that involves advance suffering or enjoyment of what is foreseen.” I want to assume that whoever defined anticipation was thinking about FPL.

While the World Cup break was much needed for many managers, you can feel the anticipation in the air as FPL is about to return to full flow. Whether we suffer with red arrows or enjoy the green variety, certainly the game we love is officially back.

In this article, I try to explain my decisions with some difficult 50/50 calls before presenting my team. Of course, my team is not 100% set and things are subject to change before the deadline. 

KDB v Salah

It feels like a huge swing in variance is about to happen with the Kevin De Bruyne (£12.6m) v Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) decision. No matter how people feel about this, to me, it is a very tight call and I feel I can make strong arguments for each side. I am leaning towards one or the other (on De Bruyne for now) and don’t see a scenario where I will get both. This is because owning the pair and Erling Haaland (£12.2m) means a lot of money tied up on three players and makes my overall team weaker. I wouldn’t recommend a ‘threemium’ if your team value is quite low. 

I also think that those who will go for Harry Kane (£11.6m) have a perfectly sound reason to do so. Let’s remember Kane has only blanked three times this season (consistency is king) so he is a perfectly fine premium option to go with as Spurs have a Double Gameweek 20 if no FA Cup third-round replay for the Lilywhites or Manchester City is needed. However, with Darwin Nunez (£9.0m) as my second-choice striker and Kane’s expensive price point, he is out of the picture for me. 

The common narrative that we are all aware of is that De Bruyne has become more of an assist-type FPL player, while Salah is now up top with Darwin and can be more explosive. But this season, Liverpool have struggled- and with it Salah, too. Essentially, the Egyptian is just not getting the same amount of chances as we are used to. Furthermore, because De Bruyne is creating so many big chances, his bonus points potential is quite high, while Salah has never been a bonus magnet. There is also an interesting stat about Salah still yet to receive a spot-kick this season, which means his penalty opportunities may come soon. 

After our Burning Questions episode with Pras on Thursday, I was hoping the Carabao Cup tie between City and Liverpool would ease my decision and I think it helped a bit. 

City v Liverpool

City started without their strongest squad and had two young guns, Cole Palmer (£4.3m) and Rico Lewis (£3.9m), in the starting XI, both of whom played excellently.

Palmer, who usually plays on the right in Riyad Mahrez‘s (£7.5m) role, was deployed on the opposite flank. This could be seen as a classic Guardiola tactic as he wants his wingers to use the width of the pitch.

Lewis, who started at right-back, was basically playing Joao Cancelo’s (£7.4m) role. What happens with this formation is that City transform into a 2-3-5 when attacking. We have seen this formation shift many times throughout this season. In this particular game, Lewis moved in to midfield alongside Rodri (£5.6m), allowing for both De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan (£7.3m) to run up the pitch with freedom and join a five-man attack (Palmer, Haaland, Mahrez, De Bruyne and Gundogan). 

Why am I mentioning these tactical shifts? Because what we learned once again from this game is that no matter which players play for City, the system is so strong that the quality of football they display is not hurt with the absence of key players.

Below is an image from a Premier League game back in August versus Newcastle. You can see the same exact pattern where City shift to a 2-3-5. The three here in this case involves Cancelo and Kyle Walker (£4.8m) shifting in alongside Rodri. 

This next image was from the Carabao Cup, where you can see Gundogan and De Bruyne forming part of a five-man attack when pushing up the pitch. 

While this is not the only way City play, it is a quite common tactical pattern. The opposition defence is overwhelmed at times because centrally they need to mark Haaland, De Bruyne and Gundogan. But if the defence comes too central, then the wide wingers in Palmer and Mahrez have all the space in the world to create 1v1 situations. Gundogan is allowed to move up with De Bruyne because Lewis (or Cancelo) covers in the midfield with Rodri. 

Therefore in this game vs Liverpool, we saw many chances where City would spread the ball wide to Palmer or Mahrez, which would attract a defender to them and allow for space in behind for Gundogan or De Bruyne to run through (much like Granit Xhaka (£5.1m) at Arsenal). 

This all ties back to De Bruyne, who had all the space in the world in this game to create chances through his god-like crossing ability. And who is waiting in the middle? Erling Haaland.

The quick summary here is that regardless of rotation for this game, City’s attacking approach was flawless and De Bruyne in this system is a cheat code. You may argue that Liverpool don’t sit back like other teams would, but the same can be said about the Reds themselves, who have struggled to break down teams that sit back this season. Plus, City play Leeds first, which is a perfect De Bruyne-type of game. 

On the flip side of this attacking 2-3-5 is that it opens a lot of space on the counter for teams playing against City. Since you have just two at the back, as long as the opposition (Liverpool) can counter fast, they can utilize this space in behind. City in general want the ball and are trying to command games and are always marching forward. We saw this in this game where City were caught on the counter and using Nunez’s speed, Salah was also able to get a goal. 

The stand-out player from Liverpool’s attack for me was Nunez. But Nunez is Nunez’s worst enemy. While he is a speed demon with marvelous off-the-ball movement, his finishing has been woeful at times (zero shots on target on Thursday). The assist to Salah was fantastic, but I question if we will see his finishing ability get stronger in the short term. 

In all, I still think one game is too little to judge both teams, but De Bruyne showed enough signs that he is coming for the league after a difficult World Cup. 

Salah could easily explode and be back to his best so I want to keep my options open till the last day, but right now, I am leaning much more towards De Bruyne given his potential doubles as well. 

Arsenal

Arsenal are top of the Premier League and have been in marvelous form this season. Their team attacking xG data is quite similar to 2021/22 but their defensive xGC stats have risen tremendously.

While the initial fixtures are not the best from Gameweek 17, Arsenal’s schedule does improve around Gameweek 22 and there is a high potential that a ‘double’ falls for them in Gameweek 21. So, it is impossible to ignore their assets now as we will want them in a month’s time.

This makes Ben White (£4.7m) a no-brainer for me as I don’t want to have to deal with bringing him in later. However, picking between the attacking options is tough. The biggest question we must ask ourselves is whether Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) being unavailable will affect them attacking wise but since their team xG is similar to last season, I want to assume that not a drastic difference will be seen. Of course, football doesn’t always work that way. 

Surprisingly, Martin Odegaard (£6.4m) has the highest non-penalty xGI of the Arsenal midfielders, followed by Bukayo Saka (£8.0m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m). I am torn between the three. Saka is the best option, but this means I need to go with Anthony Martial (£6.7m), who I am not fully convinced by. Martinelli is a sensible pick but since I have no value tied up in him anymore, I am considering a sneaky Odegaard punt. I want to assume that against these difficult fixtures, Arsenal will have to find ways to win and his set-piece threat as well as his ability to create might bode well. 

The issue with Odegaard is that if I do go for him, and Martinelli and Saka emerge as the obvious options, I am stuck with him. 

Chelsea

Chelsea is a tough puzzle to solve. With two solid fixtures followed up by a difficult double, most of us will have Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.5m) and Reece James (£5.8m) for good reason.

Mason Mount (£7.5m) is also a good option to have. His stats don’t convince me and nor do his performances from this season either but fixtures breed form. He is a flat-track bully with a Double Gameweek coming up, so it is difficult to ignore. 

THE Uniteds

There is no doubt I will go with Marcus Rashford (£6.7m) but I am quite literally 50/50 on Martial versus Callum Wilson (£7.4m). 

Miguel Almiron (£5.8m) is a self-explanatory pick. He’s great value for someone who has similar xGI stats as nearly all the £8.0m midfielder options.

Wilson has made it into my team recently and I’m quite happy with him at the moment. I just value him as a tremendous finisher and one of the best strikers in the league as long as he stays fit. It’s between him and Martial with the news that Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.8m) may be out. 

Here is my team below, but just a day earlier I had Saka and Mitrovic instead of Martinelli and Wilson, so this could change. I am set on all the spots except Odegaard and Wilson. This can easily become Saka/Martinelli/Mount/Zaha and Martial!

Good luck everyone and welcome back to FPL!