Factors to consider before choosing an FPL chip strategy

Our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers provide Fantasy Premier League (FPL) tips and advice throughout 2023/24. Here, two-time Indian FPL champion Lateriser discusses the thought process needed before managers settle on a chip strategy.

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Now that we have all of the Blank Gameweek 29 fixtures, we finally know what the landscape looks like until Gameweek 33 and have a small idea of what Gameweeks 34 and 37 will be.

There are so many layers and thoughts at play here that there generally isn’t a one-size-fits-all strategy. You really can’t be shopping in the ‘ready-made’ section of chip strategies. This season needs a local tailor to weave a suit (strategy) specifically to your team’s size and style. What I want to do with this article is highlight some factors that you should consider while finalising a chip strategy.

FIXTURE-BASED OR FIXTURE-PROOF?

First and foremost, remember that your Wildcard is the most powerful remaining chip (if still unused). It’s the one you should prioritise most. Is it more beneficial to pick a 15-man squad for a larger or shorter period?

A little bit of self-awareness is also required here. What is your strength as an FPL manager? Are you like my fellow Pro Pundit Pras – who we fondly call Fixturov – in being a master at solving ‘fixture chess’, capable of working your way through this maze as if you’re Super Mario at the peak of his powers?

Or, like me, are you someone who feels handcuffed by fixtures and wants to get back to a pure clean FPL where you simply pick good players from good teams, not worrying about blanks and doubles?

WHAT SURROUNDS THE BLANKS AND DOUBLES?

When picking your route, always look at the fixtures surrounding a blank and double. For example, it’s predicted that Manchester United, Crystal Palace and Newcastle United are three sides who could potentially have a Double Gameweek 34. From those, only the Magpies have an attractive schedule before it.

So if you, for example, are contemplating dead-ending to Double Gameweek 34 and Wildcarding in Gameweek 35 with a view to Bench Boost in Gameweek 37, do you really want to focus your post-Gameweek 30 transfers towards Man United and Crystal Palace? Maybe you just Free Hit instead. That’s why the nearby fixtures need to be weighed into chip strategy thoughts.

WHEN TO BENCH BOOST

Another consideration to make is the Bench Boost. It’s an important chip to think about because I know several FPL managers who are Wildcarding now for Bench Boost in Gameweek 28, intending to ‘get rid’ of it. This enables them to not think about their four sidelined players until the end of the season but, in exchange, they’re compromising on a few additional fixtures.

Of course, rotation, ‘xBeach’ and other factors mean you may or may not get these additional fixtures with a Bench Boost in Gameweek 34 or 37 either. Especially the latter, depending on how competitive the title race, relegation and European competitions will be. We often talk about game-state and Bench Boost in Gameweek 37 will depend on season-state.

If you’re using a Gameweek 31 Wildcard with a view to Bench Boost in the penultimate week, you’ll always need to keep a keen eye on your substitutes and some later transfers could be used there. We’re likely to find out what Double Gameweek 34 will look like before Gameweek 30 or 31, allowing us to then predict Double Gameweek 37’s layout. You could set up these bench picks in advance but there’s a big gap between Gameweeks 31 and 37, which adds appeal to a Gameweek 35 Wildcard as it’s closer.

PLAY IT SAFE OR CHASE UPSIDES?

Finally, consider your rank and whether you’d rather plug the gaps with a Free Hit in Gameweek 29 or chase a higher ceiling by saving it for Gameweek 34 or 37. An advantage of the former is that you are almost definitely gaining points in Gameweek 29, whereas the latter always has the possibility of losing points to ignored players that feature once but haul. But, at the same time, a Double Gameweek Free Hit could appeal to those thinking they have nothing else to lose and should just go for it.

That is all from me this week. I did not mention specific chip strategies because they are very team-specific. Pras did an excellent job on this earlier in the week, if you are looking for a general overview.

It was similar to this week’s FPL Wire podcast (below), as Pras got his helicopter out and joined Zophar and myself: