FPL Gameweek 30 differentials: Richarlison, Hojlund + Sarabia

David Datro Fofana (£5.0m) was the only one of our differential trio to deliver in Gameweek 29, so we’ll be hoping for a better return from our latest selection.

As always, to qualify, the player must have a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

RICHARLISON

• FPL ownership: 4.1%
• Price: £6.9m
• GW30-34 fixtures: LUT | whu | NFO | new | –

With the majority of Fantasy managers opting for Son Heung-min (£10.1m, 33.7%) and James Maddison (£8.0m, 14.7%) in their pursuit of Tottenham Hotspur attacking coverage, the 4.1% owned Richarlison (£6.9m) represents a departure from the crowd.

The Brazilian completed his comeback from injury with a 10-minute run-out against Fulham prior to the international break, reaffirming his Fantasy potential with two shots inside the box.

Although he failed to find the net, his capacity for explosive returns (nine goals and 71 points in eight outings from Gameweeks 16-23) makes him an exciting differential prospect, considering that Spurs are about to embark on a superb quartet of fixtures which includes a home tie against Luton Town in Gameweek 30.

Delving deeper into the statistics, Richarlison lays claim to a superior shot rate than Son and Maddison under Ange Postecoglou, leading for minutes per shot (21.6), minutes per shot in the box (25.2) and minutes per shot on target (62.9), underlining his influence when on the pitch.

Now, in the wake of Spurs’ 3-0 defeat at Craven Cottage, Richarlison – who costs just £6.9m in FPL – is poised for a timely return to the starting XI for Saturday’s clash with Luton.

The home team are likely to enjoy their fair share of scoring opportunities, too – Rob Edwards’ troops have failed to keep a single clean sheet on the road all season and place bottom for goals conceded in away matches (34).

With West Ham United, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United to follow, Richarlison certainly has the schedule to profit.

RASMUS HOJLUND

• FPL ownership: 4.5%
• Price: £7.0m
• GW30-34 fixtures: bre | che | LIV | bou | SHU

Sidelined for around a month with a muscle injury before his return against Liverpool in the FA Cup, Manchester United’s Rasmus Hojlund (£7.0m) currently sits in just 4.5% of FPL squads.

The 21-year-old now looks primed for investment ahead of some good fixtures for United, with Liverpool and Arsenal – both at home – the only teams in the current top seven that they have left to face.

Throw in a future Double Gameweek 37 and there’s a strong argument for investing in the former Atalanta man.

Although Hojlund endured a slow start to the campaign, the Danish international was in a rich vein of form prior to injury, after scoring seven goals and assisting two in six Premier League games, a period which saw him average 9.1 points per match.

United travel to the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday night to take on a Brentford side that has kept just one clean sheet and conceded 29 goals on home turf this season, more than any other side bar Sheffield United (42) and Burnley (35).

Given their defensive absentees – Ben Mee (£4.8m), Sergio Reguilon (£4.4m), Aaron Hickey (£4.3m), Rico Henry (£4.3m), Christian Norgaard (£5.3m) and potentially Ethan Pinnock (£4.5m) – plus Bruno Fernandes (£8.2m) and Alejandro Garnacho (£4.9m) providing plenty of creativity, Hojlund is certainly a viable option for those seeking a differential forward.

PABLO SARABIA

• FPL ownership: 0.5%
• Price: £4.7m
• GW30-35 fixtures: avl | bur | WHU | nfo | ARS + BOU

In the absence of Pedro Neto (£5.6m) and Hwang Hee-chan (£5.4m), there’s even greater emphasis on Pablo Sarabia (£4.7m) to deliver during Wolverhampton Wanderers’ upcoming run of fixtures.

Although he’s yet to reach his very top level at Molineux, the Spaniard has scored three goals and assisted five in his last 13 outings, emerging as a viable option in the budget midfielder category.

Sarabia’s recent run of starts has produced some impressive attacking numbers, meanwhile.

From Gameweek 24 onwards, he ranks eighth among all FPL midfielders for shots (14) and shots on target (five).

It’s on the creative front where he really excels, though, with a key pass frequency (one every 32 minutes) that’s only bettered by five players (minimum 1,000 minutes) over the season, underlining his value at the £4.7m mark.

Next on the agenda for Gary O’Neil’s side is a trip to Aston Villa, who have lost three of their last four at home, conceding 11 goals in the process.

It’s also worth noting only Burnley have conceded more xG from set-plays than Villa over the season, which bodes well for Sarabia’s attacking prospects on Saturday, given that he takes corners and free-kicks.

With some favourable encounters to follow (bur/WHU/nfo/ARS + BOU/LUT) in the next six Gameweeks, the 0.5%-owned Sarabia could be a real contender for a place in our midfield set-ups.

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