For the final time this season, we look ahead to the upcoming Gameweek with our very early Scout Picks.
With the title on the line, Manchester City and Arsenal players make up over half our Gameweek 38 ‘bus team’.
But there are juicy final-day fixtures elsewhere for what is traditionally a bit of a goalfest.
As ever, we will finalise our selection much closer to Sunday’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline.
Three more Gameweek 37 fixtures, Scout Squad nominations and a whole host of press conferences will no doubt further influence our thinking and maybe change our minds.
The same goes for price rises, with our starting XI here bang on £83.0m.
If you’re new to this feature, there are certain restrictions for our picks:
- An £83.0m budget for our starting XI
- An overall squad limit of £100.0m
- No more than three players per team
GAMEWEEK 38 FIXTURES
Above: The Gameweek 38 fixtures sorted by difficulty on our Season Ticker
THE LIKELY LADS
So, then, Arsenal’s win over Manchester United means that the title race will come down to the final day, no matter what happens at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Tuesday.
Consequently, there should be no seismic teamsheet shocks from Mikel Arteta or Pep Guardiola on Sunday.
The two title rivals are facing sides in contrasting defensive form. Everton have recorded five clean sheets in seven matches, albeit all at home. West Ham United, on the other hand, haven’t shut out a single team since Gameweek 21. The Hammers are in the bottom three for goals conceded, expected goals conceded (xGC) and big chances conceded since then.
Manchester City attackers are going to feature prominently in our thoughts, then, with Erling Haaland (£14.2m), Kevin De Bruyne (£10.6m) and Phil Foden (£8.5m) in the mix. De Bruyne’s price may prove prohibitive with two other £10.0m+ midfielders in the running this week.
If we’re talking City attackers, do we have to include Josko Gvardiol (£5.1m) now? A left winger masquerading as a full-back, he’s even level with Foden for penalty box touches and big chances in his last six matches:
As for Arsenal, the urge to double up on their league-best backline will be strong. Defending is Everton’s forte, attacking is not: the Toffees are 19th for goals scored this season.
David Raya (£5.2m) and/or one/two of the rearguard in front of him are likely to make the Scout Picks cut. Ben White (£6.1m) gets the nod for now: he is Arsenal’s leading defender for shots, chances created and penalty box touches over the last six matches.
Further forward, Kai Havertz (£7.5m) and Bukayo Saka (£8.9m) won’t be far from our thoughts. They have 17 and 14 attacking returns respectively in their last 15 starts.
Leandro Trossard (£6.5m) frees up some cash should we need it on our meagre budget. His underlying numbers and goal tally are competitive since his unbroken run in the starting XI began in Gameweek 33:
Above: Arsenal midfielders sorted by minutes per expected goal involvement (xGI) in their last six matches
Averaging a remarkable 11.2 points per home start this season, Cole Palmer (£6.3m) is an inevitable inclusion for a final-day outing in west London.
IN CONTENTION
Palmer is not the only midfielder on 11.2 points per home start.
So, too, is Michael Olise (£5.7m), who has more attacking returns (15) than starts (13) across all venues. Beating Saka, Havertz, Foden, Palmer and most other midfielders for minutes per shot, his underlying numbers back up his tangible FPL returns.
Part of a Palace side in excellent attacking form, he’ll be facing an Aston Villa outfit that has been running on fumes in recent weeks. Even when rallying on Monday, the Villans conceded three goals to Liverpool.
Above: The six-match form table, via Soccerstats
Midfield Scout Picks spots will be keenly contested this week; not so much in attack. Jean-Philippe Mateta (£5.0m) maybe stands a better chance of making our weekly selection, then. No other forward has scored as many goals as the Eagles’ striker (10) since Oliver Glasner took charge.
Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool have fallen short of their respective aspirations in recent weeks. Both teams could still have a part to play in our FPL seasons, however.
The Lilywhites are away at a Sheffield United side who have attained the unwanted accolade of conceding the most goals in a single Premier League season. The fact that Spurs are not in the section above underlines how poor they’ve been recently. Son Heung-min (£10.0m) has the fixture but is he worth 12% of our starting XI budget on current form? Maybe Brennan Johnson (£5.8m), whose ‘xMins’ have been boosted by injuries elsewhere, is a better use of the funds.
Above: Midfielders sorted by big chances per 90 minutes this season (min. 500 mins)
Monday night was Liverpool in a nutshell: still potent going forward, suspect at the back and ultimately coming up short.
The lure of a romantic Reds pick is strong on Jurgen Klopp’s farewell game, however. Sentimentality will certainly have to play a huge part with Mohamed Salah (£13.4m): he has blanked in five of his last six runouts and is way, way down the list for xGI in that time. Even Andreas Pereira (£5.3m) is ahead of him for that stat.
A resurgent Cody Gakpo (£7.1m) is in better nick, with four returns in as many starts.
THE LONG SHOTS
Nottingham Forest and Fulham have the chance to send Burnley and Luton Town back off to the Championship with a final hiding.
Morgan Gibbs-White (£5.7m) and Callum Hudson-Odoi (£4.7m) have stepped up in recent weeks as Chris Wood‘s (£4.7m) goal-den touch has deserted him, so are outside bets for the Scout Picks.
Rodrigo Muniz (£4.3m) would usually come into the reckoning, too, but you wonder whether Marco Silva will hand some more misty-eyed minutes to Raul Jimenez (£5.0m) instead. Luton have scored in all but one of their last 25 fixtures, to put us off the Fulham backline.
Newcastle United have the task of bettering the division’s second-best defence for xGC in the last six matches, so Alexander Isak (£8.4m) and Anthony Gordon (£6.4m) may find clear chances at a premium on Sunday.
Given Manchester United’s recent struggles at both ends of the pitch and one eye being on the upcoming FA Cup final (they could also be out of a European qualification spot in the league by Gameweek 38), maybe we’re overlooking Brighton and Hove Albion assets.
Wednesday’s clash at Chelsea will give us an indication of which of their backline are fit (Messrs Webster and Veltman were hobbling at the weekend) and whether João Pedro (£5.2m) is still sidelined.
GAMEWEEK 38 SCOUT PICKS: BUS TEAM
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