Our Gameweek 31 Spot the Differential column puts the spotlight on three low-owned Fantasy Premier League (FPL) assets.
This time, we’ve selected players at Everton, Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.
ILIMAN NDIAYE
- FPL ownership: 4.2%
- Price: £6.2m
- GW31-35 fixtures: CHE | bre | LIV | whu* | MCI
Everton entertain Chelsea on Saturday, and we think Iliman Ndiaye (£6.2m) could get some joy at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
It’s the Blues’ defence that offers real encouragement that the 26-year-old can deliver.
Liam Rosenior’s troops have looked poor defensively of late, even before the injuries to Trevoh Chalobah (£5.5m) and Reece James (£5.6m).
Indeed, it’s just one clean sheet in 14 Premier League matches for Chelsea, with only one shut-out since the appointment of Rosenior.
As for Ndiaye, he’s produced one goal and one assist over the last five Gameweeks. He’s also banked two defensive contribution (DefCon) points in that spell.
However, it’s important to mention that he’s come very close to hitting the DefCon threshold in several other matches since his return from the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON).
| DefCons | |
|---|---|
| Gameweek 23: Leeds (h) | 7 |
| Gameweek 24: Brighton (a) | 11 |
| Gameweek 25: Fulham (a) | 10 |
| Gameweek 26: Bournemouth (h) | 11 |
| Gameweek 27: Man Utd (h) | 10 |
| Gameweek 28: Newcastle (a) | 13 |
| Gameweek 29: Burnley (h) | 8 |
| Gameweek 30: Arsenal (a) | 8 |
Penalties are another huge part of Ndiaye’s appeal.
So, with the ability to garner points from various routes, the 4.2%-owned winger offers plenty of potential in Blank Gameweek 31.
Looking further ahead, Everton’s trip to West Ham United could yet stay in Gameweek 34 (i.e. move to the midweek after it) even if the Hammers beat Leeds United in the FA Cup quarter-finals, as both teams are not involved in Europe.
RICHARLISON
- FPL ownership: 5.9%
- Price: £6.3m
- GW31-35 fixtures: NFO | sun | BHA | wol | avl
After a really impressive display in Tottenham Hotspur’s draw at Liverpool last weekend, Richarlison (£6.3m) is an interesting differential option, albeit one who is just over our usual 5% ownership threshold.
The Brazilian produced the late equaliser at Anfield and racked up more shots (five) than any other player on the pitch, including two Opta ‘big chances’.
He also found the net with a header against Fulham in Gameweek 28.
Available at just £6.3m, Richarlison could be a decent cheap forward to invest in, particularly for those on a Gameweek 33 Free Hit, Gameweek 35 Wildcard strategy:
Suspended in midweek, when Spurs triumphed 3-2 over Atletico Madrid, Richarlison could find himself on penalties if Dominic Solanke (£7.2m) isn’t on the pitch on Sunday.
There is a bit of risk, of course, given that admirable European performance, when positional rival Randal Kolo Muani (£6.9m) led the line and scored. Solanke was absent due to injury, too.
However, Richarlison has been a rare bright spot for Igor Tudor and has made an impact whenever called upon, so you’d think he has a decent chance of starting in Sunday’s relegation six-pointer at home to Nottingham Forest.
Trips to Sunderland and Wolverhampton Wanderers, who are both in the bottom four for expected goals conceded (xGC) over the last six Gameweeks, are on the horizon too.
Granted, Richarlison is an often unpredictable Fantasy pick, but he has form for stepping up in relegation battles and could finish the season strongly, given that he’ll be determined to make Brazil’s World Cup squad.
MATEUS FERNANDES
- FPL ownership: 0.4%
- Price: £5.5m
- GW31-35 fixtures: avl | WOL | cry | EVE* | bre
Mateus Fernandes (£5.5m) has been one of West Ham United’s standout performers this season.
A real all-rounder, the Portuguese has produced a modest six attacking returns in his last 22 appearances, but has banked 20 DefCon points over that spell, the third-most of any FPL midfielder.
Fernandes predominantly plays on the left of Nuno Espirito Santo’s central midfield trio, but has plenty of freedom to push forward and impact the game in the final third.
Speaking about his role under Nuno, he recently said:
“I think I’ve felt freer. The manager has brought me stability. I’m playing in a position where I feel more comfortable, I have the ball, I gain confidence throughout the game. The manager has helped me a lot with stability. Last year, partly due to the results, [Southampton] had three coaches and I ended up never staying in one position. I ended up not developing routines. The manager gave me that stability. I started to develop routines [while playing] box-to-box, and that’s where I feel most comfortable.” – Mateus Fernandes
As for West Ham, they produced an unexpected point against Manchester City last time out, and now have an opportunity to make up some ground as they travel to out-of-form Aston Villa on Sunday.
The Hammers have found the net 14 times since mid-January, the sixth-most of any team.
Nine of those strikes have arrived on the road, where Nuno’s approach, which focuses on quick transitions and counter-attacks, is much better suited.
Encounters with Wolverhampton Wanderers and Crystal Palace follow.
As we’ve already mentioned, West Ham’s home encounter with Everton could yet stay in Gameweek 34, too.
So Fernandes, who is owned by just 0.4% of managers, could be worth a punt to take advantage of West Ham’s improving form.
