Scout Notes – Chelsea Fail to Convince

A derby draw with West Ham leaves Chelsea ever further from Champions League qualification and their key assets increasingly unattractive for the run-in.

Floating the idea of having little or no Chelsea coverage for the side’s two Double Gameweeks still to come would have probably had you put in the Fantasy stocks not so long ago.

But yesterday’s 1-1 draw was further evidence of a side full of expensive talent not living up to their Fantasy Premier League (FPL) price tags and with the FA Cup as their only realistic chance of salvaging something from an increasingly forgettable season.

The Blues dominated possession and out-shot their London rivals by 23 efforts to five, but only had Cesar Azpilicueta’s goal, from an Alvaro Morata assist, to show for their supremacy before Marko Arnautovic set up Chicharito to nick an equaliser.

That leaves Antonio Conte’s side ten points from fourth place with just six matches to go, and the coach could be excused for prioritising the FA Cup now, despite a gloomy Azpilicueta’s post-match analysis.

“We will try to win it, but the cup will not save our season.”

The reliable Spaniard’s goal and maximum bonus brought in 11 points for his 20.1% ownership and took him past team-mate Marcos Alonso (19.7%) to the top of FPL’s defenders’ table.

But the Blues backline has now kept just one clean sheet in eight matches, which is slim pickings for their generally inflated price tags, particularly as Alonso’s attacking output has also dried up – he last produced goal or assist returns back in Gameweek 22.

As outlined in Ragabolly’s Metrics article at the weekend, Alonso was the Chelsea Wildcard template defender in Gameweek 32 among managers in the top 100,000, whereas it was Andreas Christensen among those who employed the chip a week later.

Alonso produced two points yesterday, Christensen none at all as he was benched after five straight league starts.

The Dane’s 5.3 price remains attractive – he’s 1.9 cheaper than Alonso – but it counts for nothing without guaranteed pitch-time as Chelsea prepare for Double Gameweeks 34 (sot bur) and 37 (LIV HUD).

The prospects aren’t much rosier further up the pitch.

Eden Hazard is another doing little to justify a premium price tag, in his case 10.7.

The Belgian now has only one assist in five Gameweeks, leaving Willian (7.2) as the value pick – he’s netted twice over the same period and has now started five straight league matches for the first time this term.

The Brazilian was busy against the Hammers, with five shots and six key passes, and is the fourth best midfielder for shots (18) and efforts on target (nine) over Gameweeks 28-32, despite having no Gameweek 31 fixture. Willian remains the most popular Chelsea asset with just under 20,000 transfers in ahead of Gameweek 34.

Alvaro Morata (10.4) started ahead of Olivier Giroud up front again and followed up back-to-back goals in all competitions with an assist yesterday.

That marks the 7.9%-owned striker out as a potential differential for the doubles, although he will surely struggle to displace Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy if he is to make our frontlines for the run-in.

With their second Gameweek fixture at Burnley on Thursday – just three days before Sunday’s semi-final vs Southampton, Conte will be expected to rotate at Turf Moor. The changes could even be extensive should the gap to Spurs in fourth remain or widen before facing the Clarets.

Hazard will surely be one player that Conte considers protecting, with Pedro the likely benefactor. But a rest for the Belgian could well protect Willian’s start, reinforcing his current popularity.

Elsewhere, Chelsea’s teamsheet at Burnley could be very difficult to predict. Factor in the team’s poor form – they’ve won just once in four Gameweeks – and their defensive fragility and their players’ Fantasy prospects are currently the wrong side of underwhelming.

Marko remains the man

Investment in Chelsea players might look fraught, but it still appears wiser than putting your faith in West Ham’s options.

The Hammers’ run-in (STK ars MCI lei MUN EVE) is ugly and their form patchy, with two wins and a draw in their last six matches offset by three thumping defeats.

But there is often an exception to the rule, and in this case, it’s Marko Arnautovic.

The midfielder has thrived in an out-of-position role up front, with his assist yesterday taking him to six goals and five assists from his last ten Gameweek appearances.

He’s owned by only 4.9% and remains a significant differential prospect with a home match against Stoke City up next, even if that fixture is the Hammers’ only match in what is a Double Gameweek for many.

West Ham also have a match in Gameweek 35’s reduced slate against an Arsenal side with Europe on their mind and with a defence that’s just conceded two goals to shot-shy Southampton.

He might struggle to maintain his fine form in Double Gameweek 37’s trip to Leicester City and a visit from Man United, but those who already own the Austrian international will be excused for keeping faith in a player who has served them so well since the turn of the year.