Everton defence could hurt Mina popularity despite goal threat

Everton’s marquee new singing Yerry Mina (£5.5m) looks like he will offer plenty of goal threat in 2018/19.

There is also the possibility for some success on the Bonus Points System based on his playing style, but it is hard to see him making defensive improvements at Goodison Park.

We’ve had a look at the centre-back ahead of a potential debut in Gameweek 2.

THE HISTORY

Mina arrives at Everton with a reputation for set-piece threat, and it is certainly well-earned. English football fans will know him as the man who gave the Three Lions quite a scare at the World Cup, scoring a stoppage-time equaliser to take a last sixteen tie against Colombia to extra-time in Moscow.

In fact, no defender found the net more often than him at this summer’s tournament in Russia, all three of his headed strikes coming from corners.

Mina’s impressive form at the World Cup comes after he made himself a huge asset to Brazilian side Palmeiras, where he moved after three years in Colombia’s top flight. He was a key player for them as they won the Série A for the first time in 22 years in 2016.

During his time at the club, he scored six goals in 28 appearances, earning himself a big move to Barcelona in January 2018.

However, things did not go according to plan at the Nou Camp, and he only made five appearances before the end of the 2017/18 season, even if he did provide an assist for Ousmane Dembélé in a 5-1 win over Villarreal.

His ability to perform on the big stage is evident though. His three goals at the World Cup actually doubled his tally for Colombia after two years and 15 caps.

Amid interest from Manchester United, Everton signed him this summer and will be hoping he can replicate his form from Russia…

THE COMPARISONS

The above table demonstrates how often he registered efforts on goal compared to his new team-mates in the 2017/18 season, as well as other match events. For clarification, the period of research we have used for Mina includes his time at Barcelona and the 2017 Brazilian campaign with Palmeira. We combined the two because there was very little to be learned from four starts and one substitute appearance in La Liga. In total, we have used Mina’s most recent 20 league club matches.

THE PROSPECTS

It is no surprise that the main improvement Mina is likely to bring to Everton is goal threat from set-pieces. In his last 20 appearances, he registered 15 shots (0.75 per game), 13 of which were in the penalty area (0.65 per game). The closest to Mina for minutes per shot was fellow new recruit Kurt Zouma (not yet in FPL), with 144. After that, there is little to be interested in. Admittedly, as we are using last season’s data, the table does not take into account the fact that Michael Keane (£5.0m) already has two attempts from set-pieces to his name in 2018/19, one of them going down as an assist against Wolves. But either way, the comparison still shows just how adept Mina is as a set-piece target when examined next to his new colleagues.

In fact, he could even be one to watch as early as Gameweek 2. Phil Jagielka’s (£4.5m) sending off at Molineux means that Mina could come in for his debut at home against Southampton. Only Brighton allowed more set-piece attempts than Southampton’s seven in Gameweek 1, potentially setting the stage for the Colombian specialist to make a goal-scoring debut at Goodison Park. Although it must be remembered Mason Holgate (£4.5m), Zouma and Cuco Martina (£4.5m) are also competing for a place in the starting line-up, so Mina is by no means confirmed as an option just yet. Given the €30 million price tag on the 23-year-old, we’d expect him to be a sure starter eventually.

There may also be bonus points on offer for the Colombian judging by his impressive pass completion. In our comparison, the only Everton defender to come close to his 88.6 percent was Lucas Digne (£5.0m) with 87.9, who was also on the books at Barcelona last season. Mina acting as a ball-playing defender may not just put Everton on the front-foot more in matches, but allow him to see his style of play rewarded in baseline bonus points.

However, it is hard to claim that Mina will be firming up the Toffees’ defence. Our comparison shows that he ranked fifth among Everton defenders for minutes per tackle won, sixth for clearances, sixth for blocks and second for interceptions. Obviously, he has been playing in teams at the higher end of their respective leagues during the period we have researched, but even at the World Cup, where Colombia had to work to get out of Group H, his defensive strength was not necessarily too clear. There were 14 players who won more tackles per game from Los Cafeteros’ first-round group than Mina’s 1.5 and he ranked joint 15th for interceptions. However, the centre-back was the third-best for clearances, his 5.5 per match bettered on Maya Yoshida (£4.5m) and Salif Sané.

If Mina is unlikely to improve Everton’s defensive record, he does lose appeal compared to the similarly priced Patrick van Aanholt (£5.5m), John Stones (£5.5m), David Luiz (£5.5m) or Eric Bailly (£5.5m). Those four players are all likely to register more clean sheets this season than the Toffees and carry some goal threat themselves, to varying degrees. Manchester United were top for clean sheets (18) in 2017/18, Manchester City conceded fewer goals than any other side (27), Chelsea ranked third for clean sheets (15) while Crystal Palace had the second best defence in the final 10 Gameweeks of the campaign. By comparison, Everton ranked 15th for goals conceded (58) and kept 10 clean sheets under Ronald Koeman and Sam Allardyce, while Marco Silva has seen his Hull, Watford and Everton sides breached 92 times in 50 matches in all competitions, at an average of 1.84 per game.

For that reason paying £5.5m for a defender whose clean sheet potential is a little uncertain, may prove too much – especially if Keane continues the season as he began it at a cheaper price, or if Zouma comes in the same bracket as the former Burnley man.

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