Our 2023/24 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) team previews continue with Nottingham Forest.
In these guides, we’ll be looking at the best players for the upcoming campaign, taking a stab at predicted line-ups for Gameweek 1, reviewing pre-season and more.
You can read our stats-based review of Forest’s solid 2022/23 campaign here.
Data in this article comes from our Premium Members Area, which you can access with a discounted pre-season subscription.
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NOTTINGHAM FOREST: REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
A more settled summer.
A whopping 30 incoming transfers took place during their first season back in the top flight, making them one of Europe’s biggest spenders. Only five of their successful play-off squad went on to start at least five Premier League games – Brennan Johnson (£6.0m), Ryan Yates (£5.0m), Scott McKenna (£4.5m), Joe Worrall (£4.5m) and Steve Cook (£4.5m).
One win arrived in their first 11 matches, including consecutive home defeats to fellow promoted sides Bournemouth and Fulham, as a new team was forced to quickly gel.
So far, just two new first-team faces have been added. And there’s also the optimism that three new underdog teams have arrived who are, theoretically, worse than Forest.
Another cause of hope is midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White (£6.0m). His 12 assists were topped only by Kevin De Bruyne (£10.5m), Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) and Leandro Trossard (£7.0m), with five of these joined by three goals during the closing seven matches.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST: REASONS TO BE FEARFUL
Terrible away form and poor attacking stats.
The worst travellers around, Steve Cooper’s side picked up the least points, scored the fewest goals and conceded the most. Four trips ended in either a 4-0, 5-0 or 6-0 humiliation.
Therefore their early fixture run and worrying pre-season results suggest ‘second season syndrome’ could claim another victim. More on those issues later.
Survival was just about achieved thanks to late home wins against Brighton and Hove Albion, Southampton and Arsenal. Ranking joint-15th for goals is the stat that matters but it has to be acknowledged that Forest were the worst team for attempts both inside the box (238) and on target (117).
Bournemouth were the one side to accumulate fewer shots.
SUMMER TRANSFER ACTIVITY
Also worrying is the lack of a goalkeeper. The Dean Henderson (£4.5m) loan effectively stopped in January with a season-ending thigh injury and temporary replacement Keylor Navas is back at Paris Saint-Germain.
Ethan Horvath (£4.5m) played in recent friendlies and won’t be returning to Luton Town, so he’ll be the placeholder between the sticks whilst targets are pursued. Arsenal’s Matt Turner (£4.0m) is reportedly one such name, so that’s one to monitor given his bargain-bin FPL price.
Meanwhile, Chris Wood‘s (£5.0m) obligatory permanent transfer has been joined by the arrivals of right-back Ola Aina (£4.5m) and Swedish international winger Anthony Elanga (£5.0m).
No significant departures have taken place so far, although 22-year-old star forward Johnson is repeatedly being linked with moves to Brentford, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur. That would dampen the mood even further.
PRE-SEASON REPORT
| Jul 15 | Notts County 0-1 Nottingham Forest (Meadow Lane, Nottingham) | Hwang Ui-jo |
| Jul 18 | Valencia 1-0 Nottingham Forest (Ciudad Deportiva de Paterna, Valencia) |
| Jul 22 | Levante 1-2 Nottingham Forest (Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol, Levante) | Yates (Freuler assist), Danilo (Yates assist) |
| Jul 27 | Nottingham Forest 0-2 Leeds United (Pirelli Stadium, Burton) |
| Jul 30 | PSV Eindhoven 1-0 Nottingham Forest (Eindhoven Stadium) |
| Aug 2 | Nottingham Forest 0-5 Stade Rennais (St George’s Park) |
| Aug 5 | Eintracht Frankfurt v Nottingham Forest (Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt) |
Wednesday’s 5-0 hammering by Rennes was their third successive friendly defeat without scoring, raising alarms all over the pitch.
PSV Eindhoven won 1-0 last Sunday, three days after a 2-0 defeat to Championship side Leeds United.
In fairness, Gibbs-White was granted an extended break following England’s Under-21 glory. He’s starting to pick up minutes, whilst Johnson is nursing an ankle injury and Taiwo Awoniyi (£6.5m) has also been absent.
It’s meant that £4.5m forward Hwang Ui-jo has often started up front, netting against Notts County.
OPENING FIXTURES
Considering their dreadful away record, a lot of early pressure is being placed on home matches versus Sheffield United and Burnley in Gameweeks 2 and 5.
Surrounding that are four daunting trips to Arsenal, Chelsea and both Manchester giants.
Many FPL managers will triple-up on Arsenal assets knowing that the Gunners won last season’s equivalent meeting 5-0. Forest did, however, pick up a crucial victory against Mikel Arteta’s side in the penultimate weekend, a week after drawing at Stamford Bridge.
It may be a bit forced to claim there’s a fixture swing from Gameweek 11 but it does begin an eight-match run that avoids last season’s top five.
PREDICTED GAMEWEEK 1 LINE-UP
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Awoniyi, Johnson, Moussa Niakhate (£4.5m) and Felipe (£4.5m) are notable first-team injury concerns with a week to go before Gameweek 1.
Jonjo Shelvey (£5.0m) and Emmanuel Dennis (£5.0m) have been playing with the under-21s, meanwhile, suggesting they are some way from Cooper’s thoughts.
Wood, then, could be forced to lead the line at the Emirates, unless Cooper opts for a ‘false nine’ in the form of Gibbs-White or Elanga.
Horvath very likely gives way to whoever Forest bring in between the posts.
This predicted line-up was compiled on August 4. Make sure to check out our Team News tab closer to the Gameweek 1 deadline for the latest updates.
SET-PIECE TAKERS
Once Johnson had missed two successive penalties, Gibbs-White took over. By converting past Brighton and Hove Albion and Southampton, the latter can now add spot kicks to his set-piece domination. Although Forest had the lowest number of corners (128).
Curiously, they and Brentford are far ahead of everyone else when it comes to shots deriving from throw-ins. All 21 of Forest’s have come since specialist Niakhate‘s return to action in Gameweek 28.
Above: Goal attempts from throw-ins, between Gameweeks 28 and 38
However, at the back, only Bournemouth and Leicester City conceded more chances from set-pieces (168). This emphasises the goal threat of Arsenal’s Gabriel (£5.0m) – the defender who had more expected goals (xG) than any other.
BEST FPL OPTIONS
Such a tough opening fixture run makes it hard to recommend anyone but Gibbs-White is pivotal to this team. He’ll be nailed-on for minutes, monopolise set-pieces and penalties, whilst also creating the league’s eighth-most chances since his first Forest start in Gameweek 4.
£6.0m is an awkward starting price, though. Reclassified as an FPL midfielder, Johnson begins at the same amount but his new appeal depends on whether he stays or departs. A respectable eight goals occurred in Johnson’s debut Premier League campaign, recovering from a slow start of two strikes from the first 17.
By the end, he’d been overtaken as top scorer by Awoniyi. The Nigerian forward hadn’t started more than three in a row until the final eight, bagging six goals in the closing four matches.
This late-season rhythm could make him an asset worth considering, if and when he’s fit. Of all FPL players to net 10+ times, he had the sixth-best minutes per goal rate (143.4).
ONES FOR THE WATCHLIST
Last season, attacking full-back Neco Williams (£4.5m) was FPL’s most popular £4.0m defender candidate. Forest are unlikely to provide such an enabler this time, although the aforementioned links to Arsenal goalkeeper Turner are grabbing attention.
In midfield, Danilo (£5.5m) impressed many after his January transfer. Three goals and two assists from just 12 starts ensured a £1.0m price rise.
Cooper lined up his troops in a 3-4-2-1 formation throughout the closing weeks (typically against tougher opponents), so it’s hard to say whether winger Elanga will be a starter when everyone is fit. If he finds some early-season form, he comes in at a very reasonable £5.0m price for FPL managers.
FAN Q&A
Nottingham Forest fans and FFS contributors Milk 1 Suker and InTommyWeTrust were good enough to answer some questions for us. Our thanks go to them for their time and insight.
Q. Who or what has caught your eye in pre-season?
“Given the plethora of players still on our books, I have been interested in the potential outgoings that will trim our squad. That said, towards the end of last season, when it mattered the most, I think we saw signs of Steve Cooper finding his favoured formation [3-4-2-1] and the core of his first XI.
“Other than our star player Morgan Gibbs-White, one player in particular I’ve been interested in seeing is Danilo who is classed as a defensive midfielder but can play in more advanced areas. He weighed in with some important goals towards the end of last season and for the money we signed him for, he couldn’t have had a greater impact than he has had.
“While he started on the right of an attacking front three in the friendly versus PSV, I can’t see him staying there, particularly with Elanga signed. Danilo has got a fantastic passing range and is consistently able to pick out forward runs by team-mates from the base of the midfield with sweeping diagonal switches of play. This could bring about a good number of FPL assists.
“Pre-season certainly feels less chaotic than the last at least! Hoping this has a more positive effect on the team and its performances. However, three defeats out of five tempers that somewhat!” – Milk 1 Suker
“23 years in the abyss was worth the single season at the summit of the English pyramid, even the two trips to Yeovil amongst it – sorry, Yeovil fans. Constant up and downs, players in, in and in again but one belief acted as our galvanising glue, keeping our club as one. Steve Cooper’s culture program on the banks of the Trent. Nearly a quarter of a century outside of the Premier League takes some catching up with but that’s what Forest are doing with backroom staff.
“Gone is the 5-4-1 box midfield, replaced by Cooper’s preferred 3-4-2-1/4-2-3-1 setup. Ryan Yates deployed further forward while more offensive players return from various ventures shows commitment to the cause, as Cooper imprints his desire for fast, dynamic football. After our 4-3 win against Southampton, Gibbs-White confirmed the way we were playing was to remain in the league, not the desired methodology wanted by Cooper. So this pre-season approach will bring FPL dividends.” – InTommyWeTrust
Q. Who would be the top three FPL picks you’d go for and why?
“Morgan Gibbs-White: Probably the most exciting signing we’ve seen for a while at Forest. He works incredibly hard for the team and comes up with moments of unexpected magic that have kept us in games and helped the team gain crucial points. He could catch a few of the big teams napping, including Arsenal on the opening day.
“Taiwo Awoniyi: Seemed to grow in confidence with every goal he scored during his late-season purple patch.
“Danilo: An increasing influence on the squad, I can see him weigh in with a few more important contributions this season – even from defensive midfield.” -Milk 1 Suker
“In terms of FPL, Morgan Gibbs-White, Brennan Johnson and Anthony Elanga have to come into consideration at various points. In a similar-looking end-of-season fixture run to what Forest have been given to start this one, Gibbs-White amassed an amount of points beaten only by Bruno Fernandes and Mohamed Salah in midfield. He was involved in 17 of our 37 post-debut goals (46%). Penalties and all set-pieces are assured, meaning he should be more debated in regards to the vast mid-priced midfield options.
“Now classified a midfielder and correctly so, Johnson’s first Premier League season was one of a positional challenge. He’s not a ‘back to goal’ forward but Cooper had to sacrifice Brennan’s services for the greater good. However, in the aforementioned 3-4-2-1/4-2-3-1, he has the potential to make a mockery of his £6.0m asking price. Johnson’s best position is as an inside forward, operating within the right channel. Last season’s 49.1% shooting accuracy ranks best amongst all current midfielders that played a minimum of 2,000 minutes. Additionally, seven of his eight goals were at home, so any change in the club’s away form mentality will only enhance these numbers. As would a move away from his family club.
“Elanga comes with promise and a chip on his shoulder from wanting to prove himself to the Premier League. He is definitely a ‘wait and see’ but could become great value when operating within the front three. At Forest, his game can be integrated into our counter-attacking, offering the perfect platform to elevate his game to where most thought it could’ve been at Old Trafford.” – InTommyWeTrust
Q. Will you own any of Forest’s players in Gameweek 1? Why/why not?
“I would have expected greater transfer market activity to boost the quality of our squad. Time will tell whether or not Elanga has a significant impact but I really hope we keep Brennan Johnson, as we saw on several occasions last campaign how devastating his pace and finishing is on the counter-attack.
“Personally I won’t be owning any our players in Gameweek 1 but – if I had to – it would be Morgan Gibbs-White. He has become our talisman and source of creativity in the final third. I think he still needs to improve his consistency of output – both home and away – as most of what Forest do goes through him. For me, the best time to consider names would be from Gameweeks 11 to 18. I really hope Forest sign a goalkeeper like Dean Henderson.” – Milk 1 Suker
“Morgan Gibbs-White. We have six away games from our first ten but that means four games due to be played in our raucous atmosphere. Since mid-September 2022, we only lost two of 15 at home – versus Newcastle United and Manchester United – while taking scalps against Liverpool, Arsenal and Brighton. Home games against Sheffield United, Burnley, Brentford, and Luton occur early on, so those managers considering a squad without Salah could have an ample budget that allows the occasional benching of a £6.0m or £5.0m player.
“As a fan, I believe in Cooper and will be playing Gibbs-White regardless but I also completely understand either a rotation or a wait until Gameweek 5 or 9 investment.” – InTommyWeTrust
Q: Prediction for 2023/24 – where do you think your team will finish and why?
“The opening fixtures could have been kinder and home form will be crucial. We have to improve our dismal away record, which is almost embarrassing. So if we can collect a few more points on the road whilst maintaining a good home record, we can better last season’s 16th-placed finish.
“Realistically, another bottom-half finish beckons while some deadwood remains and transfer activity is slow. New signings will need time to bed in but will likely have to hit the ground running. A potential loss of Brennan Johnson would be painful. Let’s say 15th.” – Milk 1 Suker
“After September, we were a comfortable top-12 side in terms of league points. Without the upheaval of last summer, can I dream of a top-half finish? Ask the wider football community and they’ll say probably not. But anything from 14th and upwards has to be seen as progression. This club is on an upwards trajectory, have a manager capable of getting the best out of a group of players that includes some great young talent and, more importantly for FPL managers, our players have the opportunity to make a huge impact.” – InTommyWeTrust
