Fantasy Premier League – Player List Analysis – Premium Defenders

Our fourth article focussing on the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Player List is rolled out this evening. With the Goalkeepers analysis followed by articles on the Budget and Mid-Price backline options, we this time turn to the premium priced defenders on offer for the season ahead:

Jose Mourinho’s return to Stamford Bridge means the Chelsea backline is currently a source of uncertainty for Fantasy managers. While Petr Cech is nailed-on in goal and Ashley Cole (6.5) looks certain to retain the left-back role, the attacking potential offer up by both David Luiz and Branislav Ivanovic would be preferable – with both players setting us back 6.5, though, it’s very much a case of “wait and see” over the pre-season. There’s the hope that Cesar Azpilicueta, at 6.0, can nail down the right-back berth – having produced six assists in his debut season, the Spaniard’s contribution down the flank could prosper in either a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3. Alternatively, Mourinho could reinstall the similarly priced John Terry (6.0) as a regular at the heart of his defence once again.

Unsurprisingly, Leighton Baines has been handed the highest valuation of any defender after racking up 177 points in the season gone by. At 7.5, the Everton full-back could be moved to the left of Roberto Martinez’s midfield in a 3-4-3 for the season ahead – while this would undoubtedly further his points potential, Seamus Coleman, at 5.0, could offer superior value in spite of Baines’ spot-kicks and set-piece duties. Indeed, a mooted move to United would likely see him stripped of penalties, with a decrease in corners and set-pieces also on the cards should he join up with David Moyes again. Surprisingly, despite his superb season, Baines would have ranked as the fifth highest defender in the new Bonus Points System (BPS) – he was top for bonus in the old EA PPI based system, by comparison.

Liverpool trio Glen Johnson, Daniel Agger and Jose Enrique all come in at 6.0. All three exceed 130+ points last time out, with Enrique just eight points behind Johnson despite playing seven games less – of the trio, it was Agger who would have finished highest in new BPS, though. When applied to last season’s games, the Dane finished third top for defenders in the BPS, with Johnson in ninth – this could well be significant, given Agger picked up just eight bonus points in the old system in 2012/13. A regular role for the 5.0 priced Kolo Toure would see many set their targets on the Ivorian, though, while both Liverpool keepers also come in at 5.5.

Vincent Kompany (6.5) remains the costliest backline option at City, with full-backs Pablo Zabaleta and Gael Clichy both coming in at 6.0. The question remains whether the Etihad side will remain as resolute at the back with new boss Manuel Pellegrini determined to go on the offensive – if City fail to mirror the 18 clean sheet returns and mere 34 goals against harvested under Roberto Mancini’s final year at the helm, Matija Nastasic (5.5) is a less-expensive gamble.

Elsewhere in Manchester, United have four defenders priced at 6.0 or over. Providing Baines doesn’t make the Old Trafford switch, Patrice Evra looks the most reliable in terms of game time – the Frenchman remains firmly ahead of Alex Buttner in the left-back pecking order and while he’s the costliest backline option for David Moyes’ side at 6.5, his four goals and six assists in 2012/13 highlight Evra’s attacking appeal. Intriguingly, similar to Baines, he doesn’t far quite as well in the BPS – he was ranked second for PPI last year but would have been seventh highest backline option under the BPS scoring system. As witnessed towards the final few months of Sir Alex Ferguson’s time in charge, Phil Jones’ (6.0) versatility could prove crucial, with the former Blackburn man offering the Red Devils options at right-back, centre-half and central midfield but we’ve yet to see where he fits into Moyes’ plans. Rafael and Nemanja Vidic also come in at 6.0 – the right-back could well be a secure starter under the new manager and if Vidic can keep injury-free, he’s another who could thrive under the new Bonus Point System.

Finally, Tottenham pair Kyle Walker and Jan Vertonghen are the last two defenders in our analysis. The former’s consistency of starts, in addition to six assists from the previous year harvested 116 points but, at 6.0, he’s likely to convince few Fantasy managers into taking a punt, with better value available elsewhere. Vertonghen started last season at 6.5 but has risen to 7.0 this time round, having produced five goals and three assists in his debut campaign at White Hart Lane. The Belgian’s all-round game looks set to be significantly rewarded by the new Bonus Points System – not only would he have finished top defender and number one Tottenham player (by a considerable margin over Gareth Bale) in 2012/13, Vertonghen would have been second overall only to Robin Van Persie in the BPS rankings.

Indeed, the comparison with Bale is particularly key and suggests the Welshman may struggle to earn maximum bonus with such regularity – a crucial factor when deciding on the armband. Last season Bale bettered his team-mate by 709 points to 479 points in the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index and subsequently racked up 50 bonus points to Vertonghen’s 12 but under the new system, the Belgian’s all-round game see him come out top by 289 points to 209. We’ll have a more detailed analysis of the brand new Bonus Points System in an upcoming article.