Spot the Differential

Spot the Differential – Gameweek 3

As the minutes tick away towards the Gameweek 3 deadline, our weekly assessment of some overlooked Fantasy alternatives is rolled out again. We’ve a trio of wide men with favourable fixtures for your perusal this morning, with a Tyne-Wear duo and north London option all worthy of our attentions.

Hatem Ben Arfa

It’s hardly been the best of starts for Newcastle. A couple of games into the season and the Tyneside team have yet to register a league goal, continuing a run that has now seen them find the net twice in their last eight league matches.

If there’s one person capable of putting a smile back on Alan Pardew’s face, though, it’s Hatem Ben Arfa. The mercurial Frenchman climbed off the bench in the midweek Capital One Cup clash against Morecambe and immediately made the difference, setting up assists for both the Magpies’ late strikes.

With a home clash against Fulham this weekend followed by showdown against Villa and Hull, Ben Arfa may well finally deliver on the potential that has seen him register eight attempts on goal thus far. At 7.0 in Fantasy Premier League (5.9 in Sky Sports and 3.5 in Sun Dream Team) and with a 4% ownership, the fleet-of-foot-Frenchman looks a decent short-term punt heading into the deadline.

Adam Johnson

The Sunderland winger is another whose statistics suggest he’s been a little unlucky not to pick up the points. So far, only five midfielders have created more goalscoring opportunities for team-mates that Johnson, while his eye for goal has produced five attempts without any degree of success.

Nevertheless, his displays hint he could be set for an upturn in Fantasy output as the former City wide man attempts to return to the form that harvested five goals and nine assists for the Black Cats last time around. A trip to Selhurst Park, where he faces a Palace side without a point to their name, affords Johnson the perfect platform to finally get his campaign up and running.

At 7.0 in FPL (7.4 in Sky Sports and 3.5 in Sun Dream Team) and 3% ownership, he could appeal to those on the lookout for a one-week punt ahead of the international break – with Arsenal, Liverpool and United in three of the following four, however, the upcoming schedule is far from encouraging.

Andros Townsend

The typically high-scoring north London derby brings the Tottenham wide man onto our radar this time around. Having dazzled in last week’s Europa League win over Dinamo Tbilisi, Townsend retained his starting berth against Swansea last Sunday and provided the assist for Roberto Soldado’s converted spot-kick.

With Aaron Lennon still likely to miss out due to a foot problem, Townsend looks set to be unleashed against Kieran Gibbs on the flank in Sunday’s showdown against Arsenal – given that the previous five Emirates encounters have harvested 30 goals, a goalless game looks highly unlikely.

A price of just 5.5 in FPL (4.6 in Sky Sports and 2.5 in Sun Dream Team) and ownership of under 1% makes Townsend a real under the radar option before Erik Lamela and the incoming Christian Eriksen stake a claim for starting roles in the attacking midfield positions.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

1,375 Comments Post a Comment
  1. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Wally or Dzeko as cpt??

    I rem last year when city were playing reading at home...everyone loaded on city..they won 1 nil with the only goal coming around the 80th min..hope that happens again 🙂

    Open Controls
  2. Esalman
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Can we expect team news to arrive before the deadline?

    Open Controls
    1. bdwhite91
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      no

      Open Controls
  3. exammy
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Nasty nailed on for city? Even once Kompany is back?

    Open Controls
    1. Hay Number 2
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Yes imo

      Open Controls
    2. Blue Teets
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Yea, kid is the shit

      Open Controls
      1. P&F
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Response lacks subtlety but is the truth

        Open Controls
    3. 1569Tippins
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Not nailed once Kompany is back but much more likely to get the nod over Lescott apparently

      Open Controls
    4. Thick Of It
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Depends if they sign another cb

      Open Controls
  4. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Some math on information based on last year :

    Man City kept 18 clean sheets last season.

    Say on average a clean sheet is worth 7.5 points

    This means that last year, a man City defender who played every game would have got a total score of:

    (7.5*18)+(20*2) = 175 points

    This is obviously without any goals or assists (which is unlikely).

    So - in summary I expect the best defenders (probably from mancity and Chelsea this season) to score around 200 points each.

    Which is ALOT. Bare in mind baines got 177 last year.

    Open Controls
    1. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      20*2 is for the times they got no clean sheet 🙂

      Open Controls
      1. Blue Teets
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        mathS

        Open Controls
        1. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 8 months ago

          Depends where you're from. Google it.

          Open Controls
          1. Blue Teets
            • 14 Years
            10 years, 8 months ago

            It doesn't depend where you're from. It is ENGLISH. There is an 'S' at the end of mathematics, hence- maths.

            Open Controls
            1. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
              • 10 Years
              10 years, 8 months ago

              If you're from North America it's Math.

              Research it then come back to me.

              Open Controls
            2. Marstar
              • 11 Years
              10 years, 8 months ago

              Yes, because the English language is so original, consistent and without evolution. I say Maths, I prefer Maths and I laugh at Math. But it's equally valid.

              Open Controls
      2. Smarty Pants
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Too optimistic.
        Yellow cards? Point deductions for goals conceded? Occasional bench (for City and Chelsea defenders)?

        Open Controls
        1. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 8 months ago

          I'd say that the 175 is accurate on that basis.

          YC + deduction will equal the few assists and goals scored I imagine

          Open Controls
    2. Pasqualinho
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      I think you're overestimating on the 7.5. This would mean that on 50% of the occasions when they keep a clean sheet, all defenders will all get 3 bonus. That won't happen.

      Open Controls
      1. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Change it to something you consider more accurate then 🙂

        It was a ballpark figure as I've just woken up haha

        Open Controls
    3. Cooper123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Where the hell did you get 7.5 from?

      Also, City are less defensive this year.

      Open Controls
      1. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Finger in the air.

        I just woken up, Cba to average the bps the defenders got haha

        Open Controls
        1. Cooper123
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 8 months ago

          Nowhere near 7.5 I'm afraid, and that's without taking into account everything that's been pointed out above me. Wildly optimistic estimations

          Open Controls
    4. Winter77
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      What about all the games they concede 2 goals or more, yelllow cards and statistic likelyhood of any red cards? Factor those in as well, nay?
      Then you have statistical probability of rotation and injury.
      There's a reason Baines beat all the city defs last year - he plays all the time.

      Open Controls
      1. Cooper123
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        And gets attacking points

        Open Controls
      2. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Lordy,

        I'll put a disclaimer that it's a rough estimate rather than a bang on figure next time I post something haha.

        I think 7.5 average score per game would be realistic if a defender was attacking a lot.

        We shall see when we get to the end of the season I'll redo the math haha

        Open Controls
    5. Dogba
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      I don't understand this. Why is it 20 * 2? First of where do you get 20 from, if they play all games it would be 38. 7.5 is too much, a CS is only 4. On average, I'd say bonus gets it up to somewhere between around 5 at best.

      Open Controls
      1. Pasqualinho
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        The 7.5 already includes the points for playing. I think it's a reasonable, thought provoking post - but needs a bit more research into the figures rather than plucking them out of the air for it to be taken more seriously.

        Open Controls
    6. Bauerhaus 24
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      *maths

      Open Controls
  5. Hay Number 2
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    I hope snodgrass and mirallas do something this week, my defence and forwards are really getting my mids out of jail so far.

    Open Controls
  6. realtin
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Top 3 goalkeepers for the short term.

    Open Controls
    1. Hay Number 2
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Boruc/mig/?

      Open Controls
    2. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Boruc Mig & whoever is Foster's replacement

      Open Controls
      1. realtin
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers

        Open Controls
      2. CostaCoffee
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Daniels

        Open Controls
    3. Dogba
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Mig Szczesny Boruc maybe.

      Open Controls
  7. It's Carrick, you know…
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Ok mate I understand Dawson rotation risk.

    play Chester or -4 point for Collins long term.

    Open Controls
    1. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Dawson is Tottenham captain

      Don't worry about rotation until it happens. Imo it's unlikely

      Open Controls
    2. bdwhite91
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      That sounds better.

      Open Controls
  8. Valar(Keith)
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Are Pool still looking for a CB even with kolo toure being almost fit? Could still dent his fantasy appeal if they get one

    Open Controls
    1. Billy Gilmore
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Sakho and Ilori apparently very close to signing.

      Open Controls
    2. Get up ya bum
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      How about two then 😉 if sakho signs kolo will be eased out surely

      Open Controls
    3. Sean.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      they need more cover back there anyway,
      having to play top guys in the cup, 1 injury panic stations etc

      Open Controls
    4. Valar(Keith)
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      damn it.. will have to look for an exit route no matter the injury then

      Open Controls
    5. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Everyone on RAWK seems to love Kolo. He's been amazing both matches so far, and all preseason too. I get the impression that the spot is his to lose

      Open Controls
      1. Thick Of It
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Some of those Rawk posts are hilarious.

        Open Controls
  9. xa45272
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Can we expect a further update on toure before the deadline?

    Open Controls
  10. Smarty Pants
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Silva triple rise this week! just wow
    I think I'll bench him and play Ivanovic instead 😎

    Open Controls
    1. JJO
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      🙂

      Open Controls
  11. Get up ya bum
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Do they usually add new players when prices change?

    Open Controls
    1. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      No, can be anytime after the pub lunch.

      Open Controls
    2. Namtab Nomolos
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      No I think the adding is done manually, the prices are automatic.

      Open Controls
  12. lickwidice
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    -=Quick questions=-:

    1) Morrison or Coutinho?
    2) Mertesacker or Shaw?

    for this GW

    Open Controls
    1. bdwhite91
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Coutinho and Shaw

      Open Controls
      1. lickwidice
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        =) my thoughts too

        Open Controls
  13. Lao Tzu
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Thoughts on Barfa?

    Open Controls
    1. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      He just needs the rest of the team to step up a gear or three.

      Open Controls
      1. S.Kuqi
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        +1

        Open Controls
    2. S.Kuqi
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Got him for this week, going to score atleast one. Is also on set pieces and has had 8 shots so far.

      Open Controls
    3. Sean.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      not good, i wouldn't

      Open Controls
      1. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Comparing Michu who has a huge bandwagon to hba based on the last couple of games...

        I'd pick hba. Purely based on the fact Michu has barely had a shot

        Open Controls
        1. Kingston
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 8 months ago

          I'd prefer to look at a season as a basis for a player's potential than 2 games

          Open Controls
  14. alberto_gunners
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Is it ok to go with Mignolet and a 4.0 keeper and rely on Mignolet in every match? I think I will play him every week until GW9 even if I have Boruc on the bench..

    Open Controls
    1. Spoonerism
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Definitely. A lot have done so including me.

      No danger of making the wrong choice on who to bench.

      Liverpool are traditionally solid and he is an excellent keeper who could make them even more so... GW1 penalty save for example.

      Open Controls
  15. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Demi, can you please give us the city line up before the deadline!
    Worried with Aguero (c)

    Open Controls
    1. bdwhite91
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      You'll be fine. It's us Dzeko owners who have to be worried

      Open Controls
      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers, i hope so. But, Aguero played 90 mins last week and didn't score, both could be against him.

        Open Controls
    2. Sánchez
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Well they dont announce teams till 1 hour before kickoff.

      This is why the deadline is 1hr 15 ahead.

      So people don't get an advantage

      Open Controls
      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Yeah, but wish Demi could find an insider 🙂

        Open Controls
      2. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        1/2 hour longer deadline for FPL members would be a very nice business concept for the FPL guys 🙂

        Open Controls
  16. Vatica
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    need help.

    townsend or lennon or chadli?

    Open Controls
    1. Captain rex
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      chadli

      Open Controls
    2. Absinthe Minded
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      lennon is out I think

      Open Controls
  17. Craggy Island All Priests O…
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Play ravel m (STK), Brady (mci) or even kolo toure (MUN)?!
    Played ravel last week, got 1pt...

    Any help appreciated!

    Open Controls
    1. Kingston
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Brady

      Open Controls
  18. bdwhite91
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    good to go?

    Boruc
    Ward Murner Zab
    Silva (c) Walcott (vc) Coutinho Mirallas
    Dzeko Lambert Soldado

    McGregor Jedinak Toure Cole

    Open Controls
    1. Chrissy Waddle - 2023/24
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Yep. Good team.

      Not fancy Dzeko to start? Better cpt option otherwise.

      Open Controls
      1. bdwhite91
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Yes I had (c) on Dzeko all week...might just bite the bullet and go for him.

        Open Controls
        1. Chrissy Waddle - 2023/24
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 8 months ago

          It's risky. But I think he'll start but not play 90 mins. Could have a couple by then though.

          Go with your gut mate.

          Open Controls
    2. Naboo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      There is only 1 difference in our starting XI. I'm fairly confident this week

      Open Controls
  19. Chrissy Waddle - 2023/24
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Try again. My post got trampled by a Hot Topic on the last page. 😉

    A. Grandin -> Ward-Prowse

    B. Save Trannie and play this team?

    Migs (lewis)
    Toure BTurner MTurner Zabaleta
    Walcott Silva(vc) Miralles HBA
    Soldado Aguero(c)

    Subs: Chester Grandin Tekkers

    Open Controls
    1. Mind över Mata
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Save - good squad

      Open Controls
      1. Chrissy Waddle - 2023/24
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers buddy.

        Open Controls
    2. Thick Of It
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Aye, save

      Open Controls
      1. Chrissy Waddle - 2023/24
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        Ta Madine. Good luck this GW mate.

        Open Controls
  20. Mind över Mata
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Have Robin, Silva and Walcott which makes the armband a tricky matter

    Am still backing Arsenal though, go for Walcott or Giroud?

    Open Controls
    1. Chrissy Waddle - 2023/24
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Both good options, but Wally more explosive.

      Also, these games can be just nuts in terms of incident/goals, so either pick is good.

      Wally for me.

      Open Controls
    2. ILOVEBAPS
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Tough one. Think I'd go Giroud if I had the option though.

      Open Controls
  21. Kingston
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Just Silva from city this week and no United attacking players next. These next 2 weeks are going to be tricky

    Open Controls
  22. Nomar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Guys, is it worth doing Murner to Coleman?

    Would be a 4 pt hit but Coleman's a keeper really ain't he?

    Open Controls
    1. jimski
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Probably worthwhile.

      Open Controls
    2. Chrissy Waddle - 2023/24
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      I wouldn't. He could get injured over the Int break for Ireland and your scuppered. I'd hold tight and do the trannie later.

      Open Controls
      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        However, he will keep rising in price if he doesn't get crocked, though......

        Open Controls
        1. Chrissy Waddle - 2023/24
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 8 months ago

          Not if he does nothing today. See how he gets on and monitor over the Int break.

          Spending -4 now fora defender is never wise (long term maybe..) but he'll play two games for Ireland.

          Just my opinion mate. Think caution is better.

          Open Controls
  23. Up the Boro
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    any changes needed guys?

    ches
    kolo / coleman / reid
    coutinho / wally (v) / silva / nolan
    studge / giroud / dzeko (c)

    boruc / kim / burner / chester

    Open Controls
  24. Naboo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Boruc
    Coleman Murner Ward
    Walcott(c) Coutinho Silva Mirallas
    Dzeko Soldado Lambert

    Subs: Kim Toure Chester (Foster)

    Good to go? Should I play Toure for any reason?

    Open Controls
  25. Art Vandelay
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    At what sort of prices (assuming both classified as midfielders) would folks consider adding Lamela/Erikksen to their team.

    For me:-

    Lamela < or = 8.5
    Erriksen < or = 8.0

    As a Soldado owner, I would be tempted to ditch Sr. Soldado and do the cost free upgrade to Rooney.

    Open Controls
  26. Captain rex
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    anyone with michu(c)..?
    i m confused who to captain
    michu vs west brom
    colman vs cardiff
    zabeleta vs hull

    Open Controls
    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Michu looks a good shout. Can't see him being kept quiet for too much longer and Myhill isn't Foster.

      Open Controls
      1. Captain rex
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 8 months ago

        how did he perfom in europa league match..?
        is bony playing today..?

        Open Controls
        1. Nomar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 8 months ago

          Didn't he get rested, I believe?

          Open Controls
  27. Matt Sk
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    I wonder how many of these mids Spurs buy will end up as Dempsey

    Open Controls
    1. Art Vandelay
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      1, Siggy.

      Open Controls
    2. Hantakun
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Holtby should get himself loaned out asap

      Open Controls
  28. xa45272
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    (A) Toure --> Collins
    (b) Toure --> Dawson
    (c) Hold tight (means only 2 defenders if Toure doesn't play)

    Open Controls
  29. Cooper123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    Play Chester or Morrison (WHU)?

    Boring call I know, but surely it has to be Chester despite fixtures since he will start?

    Open Controls
    1. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      I would go with Morisson and hope that he gets at least 45 minutes.

      Open Controls
    2. Naboo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Nah, I'd play Morrison definitely. Could score well off the bench. Only expect a single point from Chester anyway

      Open Controls
    3. Craggy Island All Priests O…
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      I was considering Morrison over Brady, so I'd definitely go Morrison over Chester.
      They're never gonna keep a clean sheet at city, so live life on the edge a little! 😉

      Open Controls
  30. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 8 months ago

    I have Wally, Silva, and Dzeko. Currently on Silva(C) but have a gut feeling that Dzeko might explode today.

    Open Controls
    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Hard to say, but Silva is a safe choice.

      Open Controls
    2. Birthday Sess
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 months ago

      Dzeko too risky. Even if he does explode today, you will benefit from simply owning him over others

      Open Controls